Had to change the format so I followed the community rules.
The 2020 college football season has come to a close with the Alabama Crimson Tide once again on top of the college football world. Bama won an exciting, albeit lopsided, national championship game over Ohio State as Nick Saban claimed his seventh title.
As you might expect, this mock is going to feature a lot of soon-to-be former Tide players and a few Buckeyes as well. I have six Alabama players coming off the board in the first round, including quarterback Mac Jones.
Speaking of quarterbacks, there are six that I could see drafted in the first two rounds at this point. There is still a ton of assessing to be done with the Senior Bowl coming up, hopefully, followed by the NFL scouting combine.
There are two trades that occur in the first round of this mock, both involving quarterbacks.
Cincinnati trades 1.5 and 5.133 to San Francisco for 1.12, 2.43 and a 2022 first-round pick Detroit trades 1.7 to New England for 1.15, 2.46 and 2022 first-round pick
The draft order is according to Tankathon and updated through the wildcard weekend. Time to dive in!

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

I know there is some buzz about Urban Meyer landing with the Jaguars and taking Justin Fields. I don't buy it. Trevor Lawrence is one of the best quarterback prospects of all time. His poise, athleticism and arm strength make him a Day 1 starter. He would give Jacksonville it's most exciting quarterback situation in franchise history.

New York Jets (2-14) - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

This comes down to Justin Fields vs. Zach Wilson. It's going to be close. As of right now, I give the edge to Wilson. He has incredible zip on his throws and a lightning quick release. Wilson is a proven runner as well. He will need to take care of his body at the next level, but he looks the part of an NFL quarterback. It is no secret he works hard either. The Jets would find a potential new leader for their offense.

Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (10-6) - Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon

There is some buzz about the Dolphins trading this pick back to the Texans in a deal for Deshaun Watson. If that is on the table, Miami should pull the trigger. Otherwise, this team should stand pat and protect Tua. There are plenty of other receivers to take later in this draft. There are not many offensive tackles like Penei Sewell though. He is a polished pass blocker with good functional athleticism and plenty of play strength. He sat out the 2020 season, but he will remind everyone at the combine (assuming it happens) just how talented he is.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12) - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama

While some will advocate for a quarterback here, Matt Ryan likely isn't going anywhere anytime soon because of his contract. Instead, the Falcons take a talented player at a huge position of need. Drafting Patrick Surtain II gives Atlanta a tandem of young corners to build the defense around. Surtain has great ball skills and an NFL pedigree. Not to mention he brings plenty of big-game experience coming out of Alabama. This defense allowed the most passing yards per game in 2020. Don't overthink it. Grab a top-end corner and move forward.

San Francisco 49ers via Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

With two of the top four quarterbacks still on the board and Penei Sewell already gone, phones in Cincinnati would be lighting up! The Bengals move down, allowing the 49ers to find their quarterback of the future. Cutting Jimmy Garoppolo saves a ton of cap space. Justin Fields' ceiling is higher than that of Garoppolo's too. Fields brings a ton of intangibles to the table with his arm strength and speed. He definitely needs to improve some of his decision making and work on consistently hitting his release. Working with Kyle Shanahan would be a great way to help him reach his full potential.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) - Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU

If Patrick Surtain was still here, that would have been the pick. However, it is hard to be mad about landing the top receiver in the class. Ja'Marr Chase is a matchup nightmare with a great blend of size and speed. He dominated the SEC in 2019 before opting out in 2020. He would give whomever the Eagles decide to start at quarterback a clear No. 1 receiver. Philly has been looking to fill that void for a long time.

New England Patriots via Detroit Lions (5-11) - Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Detroit has a ton of holes to fill and a new general manager coming in. I think we could see them trade down come April. The Patriots jump up to find a succession plan to Tom Brady, probably a few years too late. Trey Lance is a bit more raw than the other top quarterback prospects, but he has some special physical tools. If he gets a year to get up to speed in the NFL and improve his deep accuracy, he could be a long-term solution at quarterback for years to come. With his effortless arm strength and impressive mobility, the sky is the limit for Lance.

Carolina Panthers (5-11) - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State

Sometimes, things just fall into place perfectly. Carolina needs a new linebacker to roam the field and match wits with opposing quarterbacks. Micah Parsons could step in from Day 1 and provide a huge boost to an exciting young defense. He has the prototypical size teams want for modern day linebackers with some added pass rushing potential. Parsons won't be Luke Keuchley, but he is probably the team's best option to attempt to fill the void he left when he retired.

Denver Broncos (5-11) - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami

I'm not forgetting about Bradley Chubb or Von Miller, with the latter hopefully coming back from injury at full strength in 2021. Gregorey Rousseau has the potential to take over at one of the defensive end spots though while Miller and Chubb play on the outside. Rousseau is huge at 6'7" with room to add some muscle to that frame. He looks most comfortable rushing the passer from the interior in the limited tape I've watched so far of him at Miami. Denver needs a jolt in its front three. Rousseau has the potential to become a cornerstone player on this defense.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10) - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech

When you allow the most points in franchise history and fire your defensive coordinator after one season, it's probably a good sign that you need to add some talent to your defense. Caleb Farley is a big, physical corner who can command a spot on the outside for this Cowboys defense. After sitting out the 2020 season, he will get a chance to solidify his draft stock at the combine. Dallas desperately missed Byron Jones this year. While Farley is not a like-for-like fit, he can help fill the void and create an exciting young tandem with Trevon Diggs.

New York Giants (6-10) - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama

If you want to rank the Alabama receivers over the past two years, Jaylen Waddle is second on my list behind Jerry Jeudy. Yes, I would take him over DeVonta Smith and Henry Ruggs. While Smith, deservedly, won the Heisman, Waddle was in the conversation this year before he got hurt. He was the go-to player in the offense, amassing 557 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his four games before the injury. Waddle is electric in the open field. I like how he projects to the next level just a bit more than Smith. If the Giants are determined to see Daniel Jones succeed, finding a playmaker like Waddle will make a huge difference.

Cincinnati Bengals via San Francisco 49ers (6-10) - Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech

Slide down seven spots and land an offensive line prospect with tons of potential? Sign every Bengals fan in the world up for that. Probably sign Joe Burrow up for that too. Christian Darrisaw has a bit of developing still to do, but he looks very comfortable playing on the left side of the line. His size and athleticism point to tons of untapped potential. He has room to improve in his footwork and technique, but those are coachable aspects of the game.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) - Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas

Protecting Justin Herbert should be the top priority for the Chargers this offseason. For a team that seems to be growing into a potential championship window with a rookie quarterback, finding a franchise tackle to grow with it would be a great fit. Samuel Cosmi's ceiling might be the highest of any offensive tackle in this draft. At 6'7", 309 lbs, Cosmi is huge, but he moves like a much smaller man. He looks comfortable pulling, blocking in space and anchoring down on the quarterback's blind side. He is extremely raw and will need some good coaching to perfect his technique, hand usage and footwork to reach his potential. In two years though, he could be one of the top five tackles in the league. There is some risk though that he ends up being a guard if he cannot develop.

Minnesota Vikings (7-9) - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina

Mike Zimmer called this the worst defense he has ever had. Let's assume they will look to rebuild it then during the 2021 offseason. Jaycee Horn has lockdown corner potential. He is an elite man-to-man corner. South Carolina moved him all over the formation, allowing him to gain some experience in the slot, blitzing off the edge, playing off coverage and playing zone. He should upgrade the secondary right away. This does not mean Minnesota is bailing on Jeff Gladney after a rough rookie season. Adding Horn just creates more depth and potential for a turnaround next season.

Detroit Lions via New England Patriots (7-9) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama

Cue the "did you even watch the national championship game?" reactions. DeVonta Smith has been the best offensive player in college football this season. The combination of speed, route running and catch radius makes him lethal. Opposing defenses have had no answer. The main concerns are about his size. He has a very slight frame at 175 lbs, which begs questions about his ability to survive in the NFL. He will also face some major better defenses at the next level. After trading down, the Lions can invest in either a replacement for Kenny Golladay or someone to line up across from him in the future.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida

This has become one of my favorite prospect-team pairings in these early mock drafts. Kyle Pitts would thrive in the Cardinals offense. It would hide a number of his shortcomings as a blocker by allowing him to flex out and make plays in space. He would give Kyler Murray a great target over the middle of the field and in the red zone and open up more opportunities for DeAndre Hopkins. The drop off from Hopkins to the next-best receiving option in this offense is steep. Pitts would bridge the gap.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8) - Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama

Las Vegas' defense was not what many had hoped for after some signs of progress in 2019. The pass rush regressed and the secondary struggled. Enter Christian Barmore. Fresh off a dominant national championship game, he showcased his talent and potential heading into a potential NFL career. His ability as an interior pass rusher would fill a huge need for the Raiders.

Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia

Still not a receiver. I will get there, I promise Dolphins fans. Miami got solid production out of Andrew Van Ginkel and Kyle Van Noy, but neither one is irreplaceable. Azeez Ojulari is a polished pass rusher with an array of moves at his disposal to beat opposing offensive tackles. He would provide the Dolphins with a situational rusher who can develop into a long-term starter at outside linebacker in Brian Flores' defense.

Washington Football Team (7-9) - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Taylor Heinicke and Alex Smith are both great stories, but neither projects as the long-term answer at quarterback for Washington. Mac Jones went from being Tua's backup to the Davey O'Brien winner and Heisman finalist. He is incredibly accurate, looks comfortable in the pocket and has great touch on his deep ball. He might not be as athletic as the four quarterbacks who went before him, but he can use his legs to extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield. He benefited from a great supporting cast, but he deserves some credit for Alabama's success this year as well.

Chicago Bears (8-8) - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota

Allen Robinson seems headed for an exit this offseason. With Jones off the board, there are no quarterbacks worth taking here, so receiver becomes the next position of focus. Rashod Bateman has the size and playmaking skills to make Bears fans feel a little better about likely losing Robinson. He had a bit of an off 2020 season, opting out, then opting back in and opting out again after five games. He has the size to be a possession receiver, but flashes good run after the catch ability too. Expect whoever is Chicago's quarterback in 2021 to benefit from having him in the offense.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pittsburgh

The Colts defense was one of the best in the league this year against the run, but pretty average against the pass. The best way to disrupt an opponent's passing attack is to generate pressure. Patrick Jones II excels in that department. He has 17.5 sacks over the past two seasons. He fits the mold of a 4-3 defensive end and would give the Colts a successor to Justin Houston, who turns 32 later this month. Jones is one of my favorite edge rushers in this class and I think this would be a great fit for him.

Tennessee Titans (11-5) - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

It took me a bit, but I think I have figured out my pro comp for Zaven Collins. Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr. Both are outside linebackers who can hang in pass coverage but make their biggest impact rushing the passer. Collins is a little bit heavier than Barr, but both fit similar size profiles as well. Tennessee desperately needs a playmaker like that. The Titans had just 19 sacks as a team this season. Collins had 4.5 sacks and 7.5 tackles for loss in eight games. He is the type of disruptive force this defense is lacking.

New York Jets via Seattle Seahawks (2-14) - Wyatt Davis, G, Ohio State

After grabbing Zach Wilson, protecting him needs to be the priority. Wyatt Davis is the best interior lineman in this class. He has great size and lots of experience after starting for the past two years. He would provide a nice boost to the interior of this Jets offensive line and some much needed run blocking. Joe Douglas spent a lot on the offensive line in free agency without much success. Davis and Mekhi Becton would give the Jets two great building blocks to rely on as they reshape the unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama

Did Pittsburgh throw it more than anyone else strictly by design or because they lost faith in the running game? Hard to know which is true, but either way, the Steelers cannot continue to rely on Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball 50+ times per game. That's not sustainable. Najee Harris is the top running back in this class and could very well come off the board before this. He is physical, fast and consistent. His blend of quickness and power is pretty impressive. What makes him worthy of a first-round pick is his ability as a pass catcher. Harris caught 65 passes over the past two seasons. A 230-pound back who can get involved in the passing game? That is a special combination.

Jacksonville Jaguars via Los Angeles Rams (1-15) - Liam Eichenburg, OT, Notre Dame

Cam Robinson did not have a great 2020 season and it is time that the Jaguars think about moving on from him at left tackle. Protecting Trevor Lawrence is going to be a big priority. Liam Eichenburg is one of the most pro ready tackles in this class. He is incredibly polished and technically sound. His upside is limited by a lack of speed, but he can be the anchor on the left side of the line.

Cleveland Browns (11-5) - Jeremiah Owusu-Komaroah, LB, Notre Dame

Cleveland's postseason run is going to continue for a little bit longer, but it is clear where they could use some help on defense. With no clear secondary pick here, the Browns can grab a high-upside linebacker. Jeremiah Owusu-Komaroah is a fantastic cover player with sideline-to-sideline ability. Given the Browns struggles in pass coverage this season, this would be a useful addition to the defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) - Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

Tampa Bay is in win-now mode with Tom Brady, but they can afford to go with a raw, high-upside edge rusher as they continue to build depth on defense. Kwity Paye has all the physical tools you hope for in an edge rusher at 6'4" and roughly 270 lbs. He didn't produce much at Michigan with just 11.5 sacks in 28 career games. However, teams will be betting they can help unlock his potential and turn him into a physically dominant edge rusher.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - Creed Humphrey, C, Oklahoma

Another prospect and team pairing that I really like, Baltimore's offensive line has not been the dominant unit we have become accustomed to watching in recent years. Ronnie Stanley went down after just seven games. Matt Skura had issues snapping the ball at times this season. Plugging in a pro-ready option like Creed Humphrey at center would be a great move for Baltimore. Humphrey has plenty of experience blocking for mobile quarterbacks, playing with Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts in 2018 and 2019 respectively. Blocking for Lamar Jackson should be a seamless transition.

New Orleans Saints (12-4) - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC

The Saints are in for a big offseason as the team figures out its direction after Drew Brees' career ends. New Orleans has been searching for linebacking help for years now. Finding a high-character and dynamic leader like Chazz Surratt at the end of the first round would be a great addition. Surratt is a former quarterback who is still learning the position. However, he has thrived under Mack Brown over the past two seasons starting for UNC. He could take over for Demario Davis, who just turned 32, when he decides to retire.

Buffalo Bills (13-3) - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State

Another great fit for both prospect and team here. Buffalo could use an upgrade at tight end. What makes this such a great fit is Pat Freiermuth's ability as both a blocker and inline receiver. He is not the same type of receiving threat as someone like Kyle Pitts, but he is a well-rounded player that fills a huge need. Giving Josh Allen an elite tight end to work with is only going to elevate his game further.

Green Bay Packers (13-3) - Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern

There is a time and place to grab a receiver, but that is probably later in the draft. Green Bay has David Bahktiari locked up for a while, but he suffered a major injury and Bryan Bulaga left last offseason. Suddenly, this once stout offensive line is starting to deteriorate. Letting Rashawn Slater start his career at right tackle could be great for his development. He has a long way to go when it comes to hand usage and has some flaws in his pass blocking technique, but he shows flashes of being a punishing blocker. Investing in protecting Aaron Rodgers, or eventually Jordan Love, is a good plan.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee

Kansas City has not looked quite as sharp over the final few weeks of the season. Part of that has been inconsistent offensive line play. Andrew Wylie has struggled and could be in danger of being replaced in 2021. Trey Smith is a physical specimen at 6'6", 330 lbs. He started his career at tackle before kicking inside to guard. He played really well for Tennessee in 2020 and could be in line to start on Day 1. Worst-case scenario, he provides some crucial depth for the defending champs at either guard or tackle spot.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15) - Carlos Basham Jr., DL, Wake Forest

With two exciting edge rushers in Josh Allen and K'Lavon Chaisson, Jacksonville could use an upgrade along the inside of the defensive line. Carlos Basham Jr. is a bit of a tweener, playing snaps at defensive end and defensive tackle. That versatility would be valuable to a Jaguars defense that was one of the worst in football this past year.

New York Jets (2-14) - Joseph Ossai, EDGE, Texas

New York is in desperate need of some edge rushing help. Ranking in the bottom third in sacks for what feels like the 10th year in a row has to end at some point for the Jets to turn things around. Joseph Ossai is an intriguing prospect, having played more of an off-ball linebacker role prior to the 2020 season. However, he showed enough promise as an edge rusher for the Jets to add him here.

Atlanta Falcons (4-12) - Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami

Atlanta continues its search for an edge rusher. After spending several premium picks and some cap space in recent years, this could be the end of the line. Jaelan Phillips flashed tons of speed and potential to produce at the NFL level in his one year at Miami. The Falcons would be banking on that being a sign of things to come and not a one season wonder.

Miami Dolphins via Houston Texans (10-6) - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

Miami finally grabs the receiver fans have been waiting for. Chris Olave made a huge impact on this Ohio State offense this year. He has good size to compete for pass downfield and has shown flashes of high-level route runner. He might need to bulk up a little bit to survive in the NFL.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1) - Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse

The direction of this Eagles defense is in flux with Doug Pederson fired and Jim Schwartz taking a year away from football. There is no question that the pass defense needs a boost though. Andre Cisco is a centerfield safety with great ball skills. He had 12 interceptions in his first two seasons before slogging through an injury-riddled 2020. He would help Philly deal with the big plays that plagued the secondary all season long.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1) - Daviyon Nixon, DL, Iowa

Carlos Dunlap is gone. Geno Atkins turns 33 in March. Cincinnati could use an infusion of talent along the defensive line. Daviyon Nixon flashed enough upside that the Bengals would be happy to land him in the second round. He moves incredibly well at 305 pounds, but there is room for improvement when it comes to his technique. If he can get that final layer of polish, he could be a force along the interior of the defense.

Carolina Panthers (5-11) - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida

Is Teddy Bridgewater the long-term answer at quarterback? It is unclear at this point. Matt Rhule would likely be excited to work with a polished passer like Kyle Trask. He has great accuracy and anticipation. However, he really lacks mobility and does not have the biggest arm. He could be a bit of a project behind Bridgewater.

Denver Broncos (6-10) - Alex Leatherwood, OT, Alabama

Alex Leatherwood has played every position along the offensive line, other than center, in his time at Alabama. In this scenario, I envision him potentially taking over at right tackle after not seeing Ja'Wuan James play much in the past two years. His ability to play left tackle is important too if Garrett Bolles regresses.

Detroit Lions (6-10) - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington

For a few years, Detroit has been searching for an edge rusher. Joe Tryon has above average play strength and a solid set of pass rushing moves. We didn't get to see him in 2020 because he opted out, but he has room for improvement and the size to play as a 4-3 end or a 3-4 outside linebacker.

New York Giants (6-10) - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami

The Giants will be disappointed to see Tryon off the board, but Quincy Roche is a nice consolation prize. He did not put up the same eye-popping numbers he did during his time at Temple, but his one year in Miami was productive. New York's defense made huge strides in 2020 under Patrick Graham, but needs some more pass rushing help to take the next step.

Cincinnati Bengals via San Francisco 49ers (6-10) - Alijah Vera-Tucker, G, USC

If the Bengals spent every pick in this draft on the offensive line, I don't think anyone would fault them. That's probably unnecessary, but investing another premium pick on an offensive lineman is smart roster building here. Alijah Vera-Tucker brings some experience at both guard and tackle. He is a developing player that should make Joe Burrow's life better when he returns from injury.

Dallas Cowboys (6-10) - Jevon Holland, DB, Oregon

Dallas' defense is headed for something of a major rebuild. With a ton of question marks in the secondary, finding a player who can play in multiple roles carries a lot of value. Jevon Holland is disruptive and can line up at either safety spot or play in the slot. The Cowboys just need to find talented players to turn this defense around.

Jacksonville Jaguars via Minnesota Vikings (1-15) - Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami

Jacksonville is in desperate need of an upgrade at tight end. Brevin Jordan has not had the fanfare that Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth have, but he plays the position well. He does a lot of the little things right and would give Trevor Lawrence a strong target across the middle.

Detroit Lions via New England Patriots (7-9) - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU

The backend of Detroit's defense needs a lot of work. Trevon Moehrig is a reliable safety option with plenty of range to make plays. He was one of the best players on a solid TCU defense. His biggest area for improvement is keeping proper positioning. Moehrig got burned deep a few times in 2020.

Los Angeles Chargers (7-9) - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

The Chargers might not bring back Mike Williams. Even if they do, there is room for another playmaker on this squad. Kadarius Toney looked incredible as part of Florida's offensive resurgence this season. He is dynamic in the open field and great at making plays with the ball in his hands. Toney could be uber productive playing with Justin Herbert.

Las Vegas Raiders (8-8) - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia

Keep rebuilding this defense. The Raiders have swung and missed on a lot of corners in recent years, but Eric Stokes could help steady the unit a bit. He has impeccable speed and solid coverage skills. Stokes showed some signs of being a real difference maker with four interceptions in 2020. His stock could rise a lot if he posts a ridiculous time at the combine.

Arizona Cardinals (8-8) - Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida State

Marvin Wilson was a potential first-round selection a year ago, but did not have a great senior year after returning to Tallahassee. I think Wilson could bounce back with some better coaching. There was a lot of animosity at Florida State this offseason and it seemed like Wilson's heart was not in it this year. If he can reclaim his 2019 form, this would be a steal for a Cardinals team in need of some help along the defensive line.

Miami Dolphins (10-6) - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

I have Travis Etienne ranked at No. 14 on my big board, so don't go thinking I hate Etienne. However, NFL teams are continuing to devalue this position to the point where only one running back was selected last year in the first round. This is a great fit for the Clemson running back, who would join an exciting offense. His big-play ability could easily see him go sooner than this.

Washington (7-9) - Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest

Assuming that Washington does opt for Mac Jones, they are going to need to give him some receivers other than Terry McLaurin to throw to. Sage Surratt sat out the 2020 season, but he was last seen torching secondaries in the ACC. He is a big-play threat with great size and ball skills.

Chicago Bears (8-8) - Landon Dickerson, C, Alabama

We won't get to see Landon Dickerson workout at the Senior Bowl or combine this year because he suffered a season-ending injury in the SEC title game. He made a brief cameo at the end of Alabama's championship win, but he might not be ready for the upcoming season. Once he is back to full health though, he could be a steady starter for the Bears. This offense would look a lot better with an improved line and some additional playmakers.

Tennessee Titans (11-5) - Jay Tufele, DL, USC

This mostly projecting how Jay Tufele could develop as a prospect. He flashed some interior pass rushing ability in his first two seasons before opting out of the 2020 season. The Titans will take pass rushing help however they can get it at this point.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU

T.Y. Hilton had a strong second half and Michael Pittman Jr. showed flashes of his potential to be a No. 1 receiver, but Indy needs more receiving options. Parris Campbell has yet to make an impact and Zach Pascal is better off providing depth. Terrace Marshall got overshadowed by Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase last year, but he made some big plays for a much worse LSU offense this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) - Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota State

Pittsburgh's offensive line struggled a lot between injuries and poor play all season. Dillon Radunz is a bit of an unknown coming out of North Dakota State, but he has some great physical tools and dominated the FCS. He could compete for either tackle spot from Day 1.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) - Jalen Mayfield, OT, Michigan

There is no question the Seahawks need an edge rusher, but Russell Wilson also needs time to make plays. Saturday's loss to the Rams should underline how much the offensive line needs an upgrade. Jalen Mayfield held down the right side of the line for Michigan. He should do the same thing for Seattle, replacing Brandon Shell.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6) - Cade Mays, OT, Tennessee

Andrew Whitworth cannot play forever and Jared Goff is not mobile enough to compensate for a bad offensive line. Cade Mays, like his teammate Trey Smith, has featured mostly at guard, but has the size to play at tackle. He has played at every position at some point in his college career at Georgia and Tennessee. His versatility would be hugely valuable even if he does not start right away.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) - Jaylen Twyman, DL, Pittsburgh

Building depth along the front seven is pretty much the only clear need this team has, pending any losses in free agency. Jalen Twyman was a disruptive force in 2019 for Pittsburgh. He racked up 10.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss in a dominant season. He will need to measure in well at the combine to answer some questions about his size, but he could provide some pass rushing depth right away.

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC

There is no question the Ravens need another receiver to add to this offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown has the agility and route tree to fit well as a possession receiver in this offense. He can get open in small spaces and has shown the ability to stretch the field as well.

Cleveland Browns (11-5) - Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina

I'm not totally sure where Israel Mukuamu fits at the next level. He has played both safety and outside corner in his time at South Carolina. He is huge at 6'4" and shows flashes of being a lockdown corner. He is a step slow in the speed department, but his versatility would be extremely useful for a Browns secondary that has struggled to keep players healthy.

New Orleans Saints (12-4) - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue

Ronadale Moore has looked like a human joystick when at full strength. That type of playmaking could be a huge boost to the Saints offense. It is not totally clear what this team will look like without Drew Brees, but New Orleans has needed a long-term solution across from Michael Thomas for a few years. Moore could be a top candidate if his medicals check out.

Buffalo Bills (13-3) - Chris Rumph II, EDGE, Duke

Buffalo's defense took a step back in 2020 after a dominant 2019 season. The Bills can look to reclaim their 2019 form with a couple of fresh faces in the front seven. Chris Rumph II had a great career with Duke, posting 14.5 sacks and 25 tackles for loss over his final two seasons.

Green Bay Packers (13-3) - Seth Williams, WR, Auburn

Seth Williams' skill set is a bit more limited than some of the receivers that have gone before him, but what he does, he does very well. He has the size at 6'3" to make plays down the field in traffic. Most importantly, he has good hands, which is something Green Bay desperately needs. The Packers had one of the highest drop percentages in the league this year.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri

Kansas City can stay close to home with this pick. Nick Bolton was a huge factor in Missouri's surprising season. He was one of the leaders of the Mizzou defense and made some impact plays with eight tackles for loss this season. Bolton would compete for a starting spot on a defense in need of some improvement in the linebacking corp.
https://aftermathsports.com/2021/01/12/2021-nfl-mock-draft-49ers-trade-up-for-fields-while-jones-lands-in-washington-after-cfp-final/

Welcome back to Drop Your Kicker, my weekly column where I use data to identify players who are rostered in a low percentage of leagues that can be added right now in deeper PPR formats before they cost you FAAB the following week.
Last week I recommended Gabriel Davis. John Brown was ruled out for week 5 and Gabriel Davis played every snap for the Bills. Davis turned 9 targets into 5 receptions for 58 yards. He also had an impressive touchdown that was called back due to an offensive penalty. He displayed some pretty amazing athleticism on the pay, leaping into the air to make the grab like he saw the golden snitch. Josh Allen likes to throw these kinds of DGAF balls all the time, and with Davis’s size and athleticism, he’s bound to catch a few of them this year. Davis now has either 50 yards or a touchdown in 4 straight weeks. After practicing in full on Thursday and Friday, John Brown was back to a limited status on the practice report from Saturday. That means John Brown is legitimately questionable again for a potential shoot out with the chiefs. I’m holding Gabriel Davis wherever I have him. If John Brown is ruled out again, I would definitely recommend starting Davis in week 6. Better days are coming.
I also want to talk a little bit about who I recommended picking up two weeks ago, Justin Jackson. For those who flexed him last week like i recommended in my column, he ended up with 14.4 PPR points for a solid RB23 finish on the week. Two weeks ago, hardly anyone thought Justin Jackson was worth an add at all. After Ekeler went down, people started adding him for modest bids in some leagues, and heavier bids in others, particularly in higher stakes formats. This week he was the number one add in 4for4 and Rotoworld’s waiver wire column for week 6. This kind of thing should be familiar to most of us who have been playing fantasy for years. Things can change on a dime, and we wanna be ready for that change.
Two weeks ago everyone thought they hit gold with Joshua Kelley. This week he’s been dropped to the waiver wire in many leagues. I’m still holding him where I have him, but he’s simply a part time player who is more of a hand cuff to Justin Jackson now in my opinion. Sometimes, we discount players unfairly because the hive mind is really excited about their main competition for work. And we did have some reasons to be excited about Joshua Kelley’s workload early in the season. It just didn’t work out for him so far. Sometimes rookie development takes a little time. Anyone who owned Miles Sanders last year can remember that sometimes, a rookie RB doesn’t hit right away. For now, Jackson is the better option. He was more elusive, and displayed the higher burst score that I mentioned in my column the last week in an actual NFL game.
One of the best fantasy tips I ever got was from Evan Silva of Establish The Run. From his time working at Rotoworld, Silva learned a lot about how to read blurbs from beat writers effectively. What Silva was right to point out, is that when beat writers project a certain amount of volume for a player, they’re just guessing, the same way any of the rest of the fantasy analysts are guessing as well. When a beat writer says a certain player was the only running back to get any practice time with the first team, that’s information we can use to inform our own projections. But when a beat reporter projects the RB snap percentage on a team any given week, it’s not data, it’s simply a projection from one person who happened to see a little more practice time than the rest of us. We should take note of these beat reporter projections, but not treat them like they’re an actual data point. Last week, one of the most upvoted posts on this sub was a link to a tweet from Daniel Popper, beat writer for the Chargers. He projected that Kelley would play 65% percent of the snaps, and Jackson would play 35%. Honestly, I think his projection was a reasonable assumption, although I would have guessed more like 60/40 in Kelley’s favor. Jackson played 40% percent of the snaps two weeks ago, to Kelley’s 57% in week 4. The problem was, Kelley wasn’t playing very well in week 5, leading Jackson to outproduce him on the field, and eventually out snap Kelley 59% to 35%. It turns out Jackson is probably the better player between the two. Which makes a lot of sense given that Jackson was listed as the number 2 RB before his injury in week 1, and he had an extremely productive game in relief of an Injured Melvin Gordon in week 13 vs the Steelers last season. If a running back is actually better than the starter in front of them, we can’t always trust that an NFL coach would agree with our assessment. Sometimes coaches play a worse talent, and there isn’t anything we can really do about that. In the Chargers case, they saw that Jackson was playing better, and they left him on the field late in the game for some key 3rd down conversions. He also got the first snap of the game, and 30 plus yard run during the first drive, which probably means the coaching staff already knew Jackson was the better back heading in to the week. Sometimes all we can really do is try and identify which backup RB is actually better than the starter, and hope the coaching staff agrees. Which leads us to my pick for week 6.
The big story in the NFL this week was of course the Le’veon Bell trade to the Chiefs. A lot of fantasy managers are tripping over themselves to trade for Bell, with the hope that he might take over as the featured back in Kansas City. I haven’t looked very deeply into this situation, so I don’t have any particular take on the KC backfield, but what I will say is that what we saw this week was that the fantasy community seems to think that an upgrade in a RB offensive situation can change their fantasy outlook dramatically. Bell will be expensive to acquire at this point though, so how do we use this idea of a talented running back suddenly being placed in a better coaching situation to our advantage?
My Drop Your Kicker player of the week 6 is… Duke Johnson. I can’t overstate just how bad of a coach and GM Bill O’Brien was. And one of the most boneheaded moves he ever made as GM was to trade Deandre Hopkins for David Johnson after we already saw that Johnson was washed. I have fond memories of David Johnson. In his prime he was one of the most explosive players in the game. But that was when they used him creatively in the passing game in Bruce Arian’s offense, and when Johnson still had some burst to his legs. O’Brien proceeded to run David Johnson up the middle into a bad offensive line, hoping against hope to “establish the run.” It cost him his job.
Last week, we saw some encouraging signs from interim head coach of the Houston Texans, Romeo Crennel. Graham Barfield shared on Twitter that in week 5 “Watson set season-highs in play-action rate (29%) and air yards per attempt (11.1). O'Brien was using play-action 16% of the time (third-lowest).” Play action is an incredibly effective tool that a lot of old school coaches haven’t adapted to using effectively yet. Anyone who is competitive at anything can intuitively see why that would be the case. When the defense has to pick whether you are going to run or pass on a given play, they might make the wrong decision and sell out to stop the run, leaving someone open in the passing game, sometimes even the RB themselves. Warren Sharp has been sharing data for years that supports the effectiveness of the play action pass. Watson was also throwing the ball downfield more in week 5, which is going to lead to a more effective offense overall, which means more scoring attempts for the RBs as well. The Texans scored 30 points in week 5, their best offensive output of the season by 7 points, also leading to their first win of the season. Quarterbacks matter more than any other player on the field. We know this because when a good quarterback gets ruled out, Vegas changes the betting lines by a large margin. When really good RB or WR is ruled out, betting lines barely move. But a good quarterback can definitely be held back by a bad coach. Aaron Rodgers can certainly attest to this.
So now we know we have an excellent quarterback with an upgraded coaching staff, and David Johnson at RB, who hasn’t been particularly effective. So why do I think Duke Johnson has a shot to do any better? In 2020, Duke Johnson is just a much better player than David Johnson, and I don’t even think it’s a hot take to say so. Duke Johnson already broke out with a 1,000 yard season in 2017, but he’s been buried on depth charts with bad coaches ever since. In 2018, he had to deal with Greg Williams, as the Cleveland Browns proceeded to squander all the talent and draft picks that analytics enthusiast Sashi Brown had acquired during his four year tenure as executive vice president of the Cleveland Browns. Then in 2019, Duke Johnson had to play under Bill O’Brien. Even in that environment, he scored over 10 PPR points in 7 out of 16 games in the 2019 season, including games where he scored 20, 19.1, and 16.7 PPR points.
It could simply be that Duke never matched his 2017 breakout season because of Bill O’Brien. The new coaching staff has already said that they know how good Duke Johnson is and he might start to get used more in both the run game and the pass game, as early as this week. Now, this might simply be coach speak. But I want Duke Johnson on my bench just in case. I’ve literally been waiting years for a coach to take him seriously. In the 2018 and 2019 seasons Duke Johnson had 124 targets, good for the 12th most RB targets in the league during that time frame. But those were also his two lowest target totals of his career. He had 74 targets in 2015, another 74 targets in 2016, and finally 93 targets in 2017, which he turned into 74 catches for 693 yards. Then he went to coaching hell.
Duke’s receiving prowess matters. But he can run the ball too. Many fantasy analysts have long predicted that if given the opportunity he could be a 3 down back. In five NFL seasons, he’s played all 16 games every single year. He’s proven to be durable in a way that other pass catching backs haven’t. This off-season, JJ Zachariason did a study on how to find breakout RBs. What he found was that you want to target backfields where there wasn’t a RB picked in the first couple rounds. David Johnson’s 3rd-4th round ADP fits the bill here. You also want them to catch passes. We know Duke can catch passes. You also want them to be in a good offense. The arrow is pointing up on the Houston offense with the departure of Bill O’Brien.
The most interesting aspect of Zachariason’s study was that breakout RBs came from all ages, it wasn’t just rookies. I think this data conflicts with how most fantasy managers play the game. In a week where a lot of people are adding La’Mical Perine because he’s a rookie unknown, I’m instead adding Duke Johnson, because he’s a better player with a better quarterback and coach. Duke is also a great pass catcher. He’s 27 years old, which shouldn’t be a knock on him. Duke already broke out in 2017, and it’s easy to explain why he hasn’t been fantasy relevant in recent years.
Finding a breakout RB is hard, but we should focus on having a good process. If they don’t breakout we can simply move on. While a lot of people, including myself, drafted Duke this year and then dropped him in the early waiver weeks, it’s time to pick him back up. He’s currently rostered in 26 percent of Yahoo leagues. If Duke is not available in your league, I don’t totally hate adding T.J. Yeldon. u/maskdmirag reached out to me in a comment in last week’s Drop Your Kicker column with some reasoning for why Yeldon should be this week’s drop your kicker add, and I think it’s awesome that other people are grinding the Athletic news articles to find undiscovered gems. I’m actually starting Yeldon in a deep league where I had a lot of RBs on bye, in part due to u/maskdmirag advice. I had been considering Yeldon for the column anyway, and his advice nudged me into starting him when Duke wasn’t available. If you all have ideas for next week’s drop your kicker column feel free to continue to comment on this thread throughout the week. I’d love to hear more ideas. I usually don’t decide who I’m going to write up in this column until late Friday night or early Saturday morning. You can also find me on Twitter
For what it’s worth, JJ Zachariason used his process that I outlined above to name Duke Johnson as a potential breakout this off season. The process matters more than the result, and I think the process has never been better for picking Duke Johnson. He’s already eating into David Johnson’s passing down snaps, and their next two matchups suggest that the Texans will be in passing situations more often. Hayden Winks shared on Twitter that when the Texans are leading, David Johnson has a 41% touch share, but when the Texans are trailing, that number dips to 28%. The Texans might be trailing a lot in the next two weeks. In week 6 they have the undefeated Titans, who have a really strong offense, and then in week 7 they face the Packers who have been torching opposing defenses weekly. In Justin Edwards’s weekly Offensive line matchups column he lists the Texans as having a 25th ranked offensive line, and the Titans rank at 26 in fantasy points allowed to RBs. If ever there was a time for Duke Johnson to break out for good, it would be during this two week stretch. If he doesn’t flash by the Texans bye in week 8, you can certainly drop him.
The last thing I want to share is a quick highlight reel of just how good Duke Johnson was in 2017, since a lot of people probably forgot or weren’t playing fantasy yet. I’m not a film grinder, nor am I an expert in evaluating RB play on film, but sometimes you see a guy who so easily passes the eyeball test, it can't be ignored. Remember, he hasn’t missed a game due to injury in his entire career, and he’s probably in better shape now at 27 years old than he was in 2017. I recommend watching the highlight reel with the sound way up. Enjoy the clip! If you want a more recent highlight of how elusive Duke Johnson looks, check this clip out from out from u/invisible_r3, shared in the thread below.
For those who are curious about why I named the column "Drop Your Kicker" here's the explanation:
It’s more of a catch phrase that’s meant to say, "drop your lowest upside player." However, in Yahoo leagues that have the game time to Tuesday waiver settings, you can actually drop your kicker, leave a guy you want to speculate with on your bench, and then drop them after they play their game if they don’t work out. If not playing in those formats, my recommendation is to simply drop your lowest upside player for the recommended add, which is Duke Johnson this week.
TLDR: Add Duke Johnson. I wouldn't start Duke this week. You should still start a kicker.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at fantasy championship week. If you’ve survived this far, congratulations! That’s an accomplishment in and of itself, but I’m sure you’re not satisfied with second place. For me, the key to championship lineups is to not get too cute. If you roll the dice on a sleeper this week and it blows up in your face in a close loss, are you going to be able to live with that for the whole offseason? If not, you probably shouldn’t roll those dice. That’s not to say that a sleeper can’t help you win a championship. Last year in week 16 it was guys like Daniel Jones, Tajae Sharpe, Steven Sims, DeAndre Washington and Kaden Smith who put up big scores (mostly from people’s benches). There certainly will be some similar performances this year…but the chances of picking them ahead of time is slim to none. Play the reliable starters over the dart throw guys unless you’re comfortable with the consequences. With that in mind, most of this week’s sleepers are guys I wouldn’t consider outside of DFS and the deepest of leagues. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies for the all-important week 16…
(Notes: All scoring and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Players under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them in this week.)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Herbert has gotten himself back on track in the last couple weeks after a rough day against the Patriots, and this week he catches a Denver defense that is without most of the top of its CB depth chart. The Broncos have coughed up 280+ passing yards and 20+ fantasy points to the opposing QB in each of the two games they’ve played with their corners sidelined, and I’d expect Herbert to extend that to three in a row. Herbert will be without Hunter Henry in this game, and possibly Keenan Allen who is a game-time decision. If Allen misses this one, I’d downgrade Herbert at least a little bit, but they still have enough other weapons that he should still be a really safe low-end QB1 this week against the Broncos’ depleted secondary.

QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (Wk. 16:@DAL): Hurts has exploded onto the scene in the last two weeks and made the Eagles look like a competent offense. While the fantasy production from his first start came mostly from his legs, he managed to add the passing element to that in game number 2. Hurts threw for 338 yards & 3 touchdowns, and ran for 63 yards and a score as well, showcasing his tantalizing ceiling. That ceiling should be in play again this week against the Cowboys. The passing yardage against Dallas has been limited due to teams being in positive game script. Only 3 teams in their last 11 games have thrown for 225+ yards against them, but 8 of 11 threw for multiple touchdowns. Dallas has also been shredded on the ground by the two true running QBs they’ve faced this season. They allowed 74 rushing yards to Kyler Murray and 94 to Lamar Jackson. Hurts should be in line for another day of strong rushing production and efficient passing, but know that there is always some risk when we only have a 2-game sample size to go off of. I’ve seen a lot of people debating between Herbert and Hurts this week for their championship. Herbert has the safer floor, but Hurts has the higher ceiling. Since both play in the late window on Sunday, I would suggest waiting until closer to kickoff to make that call. By then you should know if you need to swing for the fences with Hurts, or take the safer points with Herbert.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 16:@PIT): Taylor has been on an absolute tear over the past 3 weeks with 4 total touchdowns and an average of just over 130 scrimmage yards per game, but he gets a rough matchup for championship week. The Steelers have allowed the 2nd-fewest running back points per game, but they’ve had a couple of their more dicey performances in the last few weeks, giving up 12.8 points to JD McKissic in week 13 and 22.2 to Gio Bernard last week. Taylor seems to have found his groove in recent weeks, and I would count on his more consistent usage and improved recent play to push him to a solid fantasy day once again even in this tough matchup. I would view him as more of an RB2 than RB1 this week, but he should be in your lineup unless you have some studs ahead of him.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Dobbins found the end zone for the 4th straight week last Sunday, and he should be in a great position to do it again during championship week. The Ravens have phased Mark Ingram completely out of the run game, and Dobbins has stepped in as the clear lead guy in the committee. He’s now carried the ball more than 10 times in 6 of his last 7 games, and this week faces a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game. New York has given up at least 11 fantasy points to an opposing running back in all but two games this season. Dobbins should be a safe bet to finish in the top-20 backs this week.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 16:@NO): Jefferson gets what looks like a tough matchup on paper against the Saints, but it’s one he should be able to thrive against. The Saints rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but they play man-to-man defense more often than most defenses and Jefferson has been exceptional against man-to-man. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards per route run against man-to-man defense, and no other player in the league averages even 4 yards. Add in that Jefferson has seen at least 8 targets in 5 of his last 6 games (average of 9.8 per game in that span), and he should be a safe WR1 or 2 this week in most formats despite a tougher matchup.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 16:@ARI): Don’t overthink it with Aiyuk. He’s gotten into the end zone in 5 of his last 7 games, and had at least 5 catches and 73 yards in each of the last 6. He should be a sure bet for 10+ targets again, even with the return of George Kittle and the switch to CJ Beathard at QB. Aiyuk and Beathard haven’t had the best connection thus far, with Aiyuk catching just 3 of 8 targets from CJ for 49 yards on the season, but with a full week of practice together I expect they’ll have things more ironed out this week. Arizona isn’t a defense to avoid, allowing the 14th-most WR points per game, so as long as the targets are there Aiyuk should be a safe WR2 for the finals.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 16:@LV): Tua managed to post a strong fantasy game last week despite the absence of most of his weapons thanks to two rushing touchdowns. He may get some of those weapons back this week (Mike Gesicki & DeVante Parker are practicing in a limited capacity), but we know that the backfield is getting healthier and the Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA. Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida returned last week, running for over 200 yards against New England, and Myles Gaskin was activated from the COVID list this week. The Dolphins would be wise to ride their run game as far as it will take them this week. The pass defense is bad for the Raiders also, but I would expect limited passing volume. Tua should be a mid-QB2 this week unless they fall behind and he’s forced to throw a bunch.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Robinson has been as consistent a fantasy producer as there has been this season, but this week could be different. Many teams that are still alive and kicking owe their success to Robinson, but he’s battling an ankle injury that could keep him out this weekend against the Bears. Robinson typically is safe for double-digit points, but even if he plays this week I’d be surprised if the Jaguars give him his typical workload in a game that really doesn’t mean all that much for them. The Bears rank 5th in run defense DVOA, but have been effectively run on in recent weeks. Robinson would be a reasonable floor flex play if he does give it a go, but he won’t be nearly as safe a play as he usually is. Obviously keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Robinson, and have other options ready in case he doesn’t play.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Week 16 should be an interesting one for the Detroit Lions. Due to COVID exposure they’re going to be without their interim head coach, all of their coordinators, and a few position coaches as well. It remains to be seen what kind of impact that’s going to have on their game plan for this week, but if they know what they’re doing they’ll get the ball into Swift’s hands early and often. The Bucs have been one of the toughest matchups for running backs, allowing the 3rd-fewest points per game and ranking 1st in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most running back receptions in the league and the 10th-most running back receiving yards. It’s unlikely that Swift will put up a crooked rushing total in this tough matchup, but receiving work can get him to a productive day in PPR and half PPR formats. Swift should be a solid flex play in the fantasy finals.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 16: vs. Car.): Keep an eye on the injury report if you’re considering Gibson for this week. There is still no guarantee that he will play this week, but if he does suit up he should be in line for an RB2 day. The Panthers rank 22nd in run defense DVOA and allow the 8th-most running back points per game. Before going down with injury, Gibson had scored 8 touchdowns in his last 5 healthy games, and Washington should give him a healthy workload again. If it sounds like Gibson will be close to 100%, he should probably be in your lineup unless you have studs ahead of him.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 16:@NE): After being benched for an early fumble in week 13, the Bills haven’t been shy about going back to Moss in the games that followed. The 13 carries Moss handled in each game is just one off of his season-high, and last week he matched his best yardage day with 81 yards on the ground. This week’s opponent, the Patriots, allowed over 208 rushing yards to Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida last weekend, and 171 to Cam Akers the week before. The Bills’ best game plan would be to pound the ball on the ground. There is a solid chance that Moss approaches the yardage total he posted last week again, but you never know if the touchdowns will come with the yards. Josh Allen is as likely as any Buffalo running back to get the goal line carries. Moss is a flex play with some upside this week if he manages to find paydirt.

RB Salvon Ahmed, MIA (Wk. 16:@LV): Ahmed came back from injury in a big way last week, shredding the Patriots to the tune of 122 yards and a TD. It could have been an even bigger day if he hadn’t had another TD overturned on replay review. That performance came with Myles Gaskin still sidelined on the COVID list, and Gaskin is set to return this week. That throws a bit of a wrench into Ahmed’s value for this week. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, so there is an opportunity for another big game if his role is similar, but I would expect Gaskin to take a big chunk of that workload, and Matt Breida (12 carries for 86 yards last week) won’t be completely phased out either. I’d expect Ahmed to be in the ballpark of a dozen touches in this one, and that will make him a decent flex play in this plus matchup.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 16:@HOU): Higgins has had a hard time putting up fantasy production since Joe Burrow went down for the season, but if there was a week to be hopeful for a big day for him, this is the one. The Texans have played without Bradley Roby in 5 games this season, and have allowed 21+ fantasy points to one opposing receiver in each of those games. If any Bengal is going to approach that mark it’s Higgins. Ryan Finley earned another start this week with his performance against the Steelers last week, and he knew to feed the ball to Higgins. Finley threw just 13 passes in that game, but 6 of them were directed at Higgins. I’d expect Cincy to try to keep the passing volume low if they can again, but I also expect Higgins to post his best receiving day since Burrow got hurt. He’s an interesting WR3 this week.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. Ind.): Claypool’s fantasy performance has taken a hit with the Steelers falling apart as a whole over the past 3 weeks, but he did get back to 8 targets Monday night for the first time since week 12. Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve also allowed three 100-yard receiving games in the last 3 weeks. Claypool still has some boom-or-bust element to his fantasy outlook, but with Eric Ebron likely to be sidelined again Claypool should be a solid bet for another 8+ targets. He’s in play as a WR3 option if you need someone with some extra upside.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. Phi.): By this point you pretty much know what to expect for Lamb without Dak Prescott around. Lamb has had 4+ receptions in 6 of his last 7 games, but yardage has been tough to come by. Last week was just the second time in that span that he’s topped 50 yards. The Eagles are a middle of the pack defense against receivers, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve allowed 5 double-digit fantasy days to wideouts in their past 3 games. Lamb should be safe for 7 or 8 points, but counting on much more has proven to be dangerous in the last couple months. He’s a flex option for deeper leagues where a safe floor may be better for your lineup than your other options.

WR Lynn Bowden, Jr., MIA (Wk. 16:@LV): Bowden has been just what the doctor ordered for a Dolphins team that has been beyond beat up at the skill positions over the last few weeks. He’s been the one constant in the lineup over the last 3 games, and as a result he’s totaled 17 catches for 174 yards on 20 targets in that span, and tallied 22 rushing yards to boot. That’s not league-winning production, but he’s been valuable for deeper PPR leagues. The Dolphins are getting healthier, but Bowden should remain involved against a defense that has struggled against slot receivers. Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen and Scotty Miller each reached 19 points against Vegas from the slot since the Raiders’ bye week. Bowden should be good for in the ballpark of 5-60 this week in a good matchup, even if Gesicki and DeVante Parker return.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has been playing coy about who will start at QB this week against the Bears, and it matters for Shenault. If the starter is Gardner Minshew again, Viska has some upside for the deepest leagues after being targeted 17 times in the last two games with Minshew under center. He was targeted just 7 times in the two weeks prior with Glennon. The Bears allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game, but have given up 7 double-digit fantasy days to opposing receivers in their last 5 games, and they’re missing corners Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine. Steer clear if Glennon starts, but if it’s the mustachioed one under center Shenault is a WR4/flex option in deep leagues this week.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 16:@JAX): Kmet has taken over as the starting tight end in Chicago, playing every single offensive snap in week 15, but his fantasy production hasn’t been consistent since taking over the starting role. Kmet has totaled just 105 receiving yards in the last 5 games, all games in which he’s played 70% or more of the snaps. He does have a better than average chance to find the end zone this week. Jacksonville allows the 7th-most TE points per game and has let a tight end score a touchdown in 4 of their past 5 games. The tight end pool is pretty thin, so if you’re scrambling for a Hunter Henry replacement you could probably do worse than Kmet. Just know that the floor is pretty low here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Perine should return this week, but after being off for a few weeks he might not jump right back into a full-time role. Frank Gore and Ty Johnson have played fairly well in his absence. The Jets should still get Perine a significant share of the work this week, but they’re a 9.5-point underdog and the Browns allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game. This isn’t a spot to view the rookie as a sneaky fantasy play.

RB Rodney Smith, CAR (Wk. 16:@WAS): Smith has seen an uptick in his usage in recent weeks, taking some of the passing down work from Mike Davis while we all wait to see if Christian McCaffrey ever comes back. Smith played 35% of the offensive snaps last week. CMC will be out again this week, so I’d expect Smith to be similarly involved against the Football Team, but this isn’t a great week to count on that sort of usage resulting in a productive fantasy day. Washington has allowed the 4th-fewest running back receptions and 3rd-fewest receiving yards. The upside isn’t all that high in this one.

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 16:@DET): With Ronald Jones out, it was Leonard Fournette who handled the bulk of Tampa’s backfield work, handling nearly 70% of the offensive snaps. Vaughn and LeSean McCoy split the rest of the work. Jones will be out again this week, but I’d expect Fournette to get the bulk of the work again. There may be a bit more garbage time this week. Tampa was already favored by 9.5 points before it was announced that much of Detroit’s coaching staff would be out due to COVID exposure. That potential garbage time upside isn’t worth risking a possible goose egg in your championship lineup. Vaughn has reached 1 full fantasy point in just 2 of the 5 games where he got at least 1 touch.

RB Darrynton Evans, TEN (Wk. 16:@GB): Evans made a splash in his first extended action of the season last Sunday, putting up 57 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but much of that came with the Titans up multiple scores. This week’s game should be a much tougher one in Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog. I don’t expect there to be much garbage time for Evans to do work, and would avoid him in any lineups this week.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 16:@JAX): Mooney has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, but his volume has been limited with the Bears playing with leads in the last two weeks. He’s averaged 3.5 targets per game in those two contests, and had only seen fewer than 4 targets once in the 10 games prior. This week the Bears are a heavy favorite in Jacksonville against a Jaguars team that has zero reason to win this game. Jacksonville is a bad pass defense, ranking dead last in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 8th-most points per game to wide receivers, but the Bears should have limited passing volume. If you play Mooney anywhere, you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. He hasn’t reached 70 scrimmage yards in any game this year. I think Jimmy Graham or Cole Kmet are more likely to be the recipients of any ancillary passing scores this week.

WRs Jalen Reagor & Quez Watkins, PHI (Wk. 16:@DAL): Reagor and Watkins both set season-highs for targets last week against the Cardinals, but neither player topped 50 yards and I wouldn’t expect them to repeat their target totals this week. I guarantee the Eagles don’t want Jalen Hurts throwing the ball 44 times if he doesn’t have to, and the Cowboys have allowed more rushing yards than any team in the league. The Cowboys also allow the 5th-most WR points per game, but Reagor should see a few less targets this week and hasn’t posted a double-digit fantasy day all season. Watkins’ 3-40-1 line last week was the first real production he’s posted all year. Reagor may be worth a dart throw in a DFS tournament, but neither player should be trusted for your fantasy championship.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 16:@PIT): Pittman has weekly upside, but this week he faces off with a Steelers’ defense that allows the 9th-fewest WR points per game, and he’s seen his targets decline in recent weeks. He hasn’t caught for 50+ yards in any of the last 4 games, and has seen just 13 total targets in the last 3. You can’t count on a big uptick this week in your league finals.

WRs Jerry Jeudy & KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 16:@LAC): Jeudy and Hamler are both capable of solid days here, but we’ve seen enough overall struggling from Drew Lock and the Broncos’ passing game in recent weeks to steer clear of both this week in your lineups. Jeudy has caught just 4 of his 13 targets since Lock’s return from the COVID list 3 weeks ago, and Hamler hasn’t caught more than 2 passes in any of those 3 games either. The Chargers allow the 11th-fewest WR points per game. If there is a blowup game from one of these two, let it happen from your bench.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 16:@NE): With John Brown set to return this week, Davis will return to being a part time player that shouldn’t be in your fantasy lineups. He’s only topped 50 yards in a game where Brown was healthy once all year. Even if Brown sits, Davis would be a dicey option in a matchup where the Bills would be wise to run more than throw. The Patriots will be without Stephon Gilmore, but they won’t lack for cornerback talent, and Davis has been held to fewer than 20 yards receiving in each of the last two weeks. He’s been able to find the end zone in 3 of his last 4 games, but you’d be praying for another TD if you play him anywhere this week.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 16: vs. Mia.): Ruggs is practicing this week and may be activated from the COVID list ahead of this game, but he’ll be impossible to trust in the fantasy finals. Ruggs did have two of his 3 best receiving yardage games of the season in the 3 weeks before being placed on the list, so he was trending in the right direction, but he’s topped 60 yards just twice all year and scored just 2 TDs on the year. Leave him sidelined against the defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 16:@NYJ): DPJ has now topped 50 receiving yards in each of the 4 games where he’s played 50% or more of the offensive snaps, and this week the Browns face off with a Jets’ defense that is solid against the run but is one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The Jets are 29th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7th-most WR points per game. Peoples-Jones still hasn’t caught more than 3 passes in any game this season, so counting on him in the fantasy finals is a risky proposition. He has nice upside for DFS tournaments though and a reasonable price tag of just $3,700 on DraftKings.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Mims was quiet in week 15 as the Jets very unexpectedly played from ahead and were able to lean on the run game, and I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this week. The Browns have been in a groove on offense of late, and the Jets should go back to their usual hapless ways. That means they’ll be throwing a lot. The Browns have been a very vulnerable pass defense, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10th-most WR points per game. They got back their top corner Denzel Ward from injury last week, and he should be shadowing Breshad Perriman in this game. That could open things up for Mims to have a nice day. There is still a low floor here. Sam Darnold doesn’t take a lot of deep shots and he typically leans on Jamison Crowder as his first option, but Mims’ downfield skill gives him more upside if he does see a few longer targets come his way. He costs just $3,600 on DraftKings and 70+ yards and a score isn’t a far-fetched stat line for the rookie.

WRs Marquez Callaway & Juwan Johnson, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): The Saints will have to throw to someone other than Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders this Friday, and with Michael Thomas on IR and Tre’Quan Smith ruled out for week 16, Callaway and Johnson are the next men up. Callaway had a couple notable weeks earlier this season when Thomas was out, including an 8-75 line on 10 targets against the Panthers in week 7. He’s been on IR himself the past few weeks, but is set to return Friday. Johnson was the guy who served as the WR2 last week when Smith left with injury. He played 76% of the offensive snaps, but caught zero of his 4 targets. The Vikings do allow the 3rd-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so there is upside to any receiver who sees targets in this one. After Sanders, I think Callaway is the most likely to have a useful fantasy game, and he costs just $200 on DraftKings for the Showdown slate for the game. Johnson is a little pricier at $2,200. I wouldn’t consider either for your finals though.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 16:@NYJ): Bryant doesn’t have huge upside this week, but he gets a great matchup. Bryant hasn’t seen more than 2 targets in any game that Austin Hooper was active for this season, but the Jets have given up 8 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last 6 games, and plenty of yards to go along with them. Austin Hooper is the better play, but Bryant is worth a dart throw as a cheap option if you play the showdown format for this game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies, and helps you bring home the league crown. Make sure to check the active/inactive updates on Christmas and on Saturday and Sunday, and make sure you don’t start a sidelined player (that’s right, there are 3 more Saturday games this week). If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I will be back next week for those of you with week 17 title games or who will still be playing DFS. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game. Original article from drinkfive.com

8:05pm Dallas @ Baltimore (opening line BAL -9 / 45)
This game is giving me deja vu from last night's Was/Pitt game, it’s a very similar situational spot. We have a decent size favorite in Balt coming in off a semi-short week after playing a tough hard fought division rival game and now playing host to a NFC Least opponent that still has a lot to play for, who, like Washington is also coming in with a ton of extra time to prepare. Dallas last played on Thanksgiving, so they basically got an extra bye week. What’s tricky is that as bad as these NFC East teams are, they’re giving max effort because they all have something to play for with the division up for grabs. Dallas has a 3-8 record but a win here puts them within 1 game of the division lead. Normally 3-8 teams are already planning their off seasons.
Baltimore needs a win if they want to keep their postseason hopes alive. They only have 6 wins but the sharp bettors who rely heavily on math love this Ravens team. A lot of the advanced metrics or DVOA rankings still have the Ravens as a top 5 or top 8 team depending on how heavily weighted defense is. That’s what happens when you have a team that wins by margin, 5 of their 6 wins have come by 14 or more points. On the flip side Dallas has a completely different analytic profile, they have just 3 wins all season by a combined total of 7 points and they’ve needed to survive the final minutes in each of those wins. 5 of their past 6 losses have been by double digits, with an average losing margin of 17.5 points over that stretch.
The betting number for this game is all over the place, offshore books are posting lines anywhere from -7 or -8.5 and we have some PPH books as high as 9 or 9.5 which are teaser protector lines. When you see a book that’s not aligned with other books on a game with a favorite of 7 or 8. Those books sometimes inflate the line right to 9 or 9.5 to defend against teasers on the favorite. Which for this game the only play I feel comfortable recommending is an open ended teaser with Baltimore. Most books will allow you to place a teaser and leave 1 spot open to be filled at a later date and I think getting Baltimore below the key number of 3 is a good bet. All we have to do is find another good bet later this week to close the open spot out.
If we just simplify this game from a game theory perspective or just strengths vs weaknesses we have a Ravens team that when healthy has one of the league's best rushing attacks and a 7th ranked overall defense. Dallas is a team that can not defend the run, 29th ranked overall rush defense and are dead last against the run in unadjusted DVOA. The next big struggle for Dallas has been scoring offense, ranked 26th in overall offensive efficiency. Over the Cowboys’ past 6 games they’re averaging 14.7 points per game and have scored fewer than 20 points 6 times this season. So just to recap, you have a team (BAL) that’s near the top in both rushing and defense vs a team (DAL) that’s ranked at the bottom or near the bottom in defending the rush and offensive output. Dallas does have a solid special teams unit ranked 10th overall but Baltimore happens to be the league's best or very close to the best with a #1b special teams unit in the league (basically tied with MIami for 1st). It’s a clear one sided matchup edge for Balt but I’m just not rushing to go bet a team that’s lost 3 of their last 4 at home and 2 straight.
I honestly don’t have a whole lot of interest in this game from a betting standpoint. These rescheduled games are tough to handicap and we’ve seen some sloppy, unpredictable play on some of these “added games”. I’ll likely open a small teaser with Balt but that’s it. I lean slightly towards under the total but not enough to bet it. One thing I am interested in is seeing how Balt responds with all these issues and schedule changes. Remember this is a team that had the best record in the NFL last year to now fighting to stay above water. If they were to somehow lose this game the Ravens will absolutely pack it up for the season and I will be looking to fade them. When a team that’s mathematically OUT of the playoffs that is accustomed to being in the playoffs every year it’s very hard for them to give max effort in meaningless games the rest of the season.
Teams coming off a ATS margin loss of 24pts or more are 91-52-7 / 63.6% ATS Dallas lost by 27.5pts (ATS score) against Washington in their last game.

Last week’s thread can be viewed here.
AS A DISCLAIMER BEFORE WE BEGIN: This post is by no means suggesting that 13-point teasers present some kind of mathematical edge over Vegas nor is it suggesting that you prioritize these teasers over any other bets. However, there are some of you (like me), who like sprinkling a little on these every week for FUN and are interested to see how teasing every side and total plays out over the course of the season. I shouldn’t have to say this, but there were a couple sensitive types who were enraged that some of us enjoy playing teasers.
Anyways, I digress. Here is the table following Week 11’s results: Link
Some interesting findings:

Was a great week for teasing up underdogs, as they went 15-0-1 on the week. It was the best showing by underdogs since a 14-0 week in Week 9.
Teasing up underdogs between +7.5 and +10 went 4-0 and are now 23-1 on the season
Teasing down favorites of -7.5 or greater went 5-0 on the week and are now 20-0 over the last seven weeks
Teasing over totals of 44 or less have been rare to see in recent weeks, but went 2-0 on the season and are 33-2 on the season as whole
Teasing overs went 14-2 on the week for its best week since Week 9.

So how should you approach these going forward?
For me personally, I play a 5-teamer of these every week, which is 8-3 thus far since I started playing them in Week 2. I generally wait until later in the week and take a look at how the line is moving. I’ll find five sides getting the majority of the sharp money and good CLV and add those to my play. Again, I highly recommend waiting until Saturday before playing these so we get the true spread value of all these games.
Again, these are only results from TEN weeks of play from 2020. For a more reliable sense of how these teasers work, we’d probably have to look back at the past 2-3 seasons as well before getting a better sense of these. So by no means, don’t go blowing little Susie’s college funds on these.
You can follow me on Twitter AT BetWithSeb1 or via the Action Network App AT BetWithSeb.

The thread is open to all sports, including NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB, NHL, MLB, Soccer, etc. Each week’s thread will be run from Tuesday to Monday during the football season.
The community leaderboard is ordered based on ROI (Return On Investment). ROI is calculated by taking the total profit/loss, dividing it by the total amount bet, then multiplying it by 100 to get the ROI %.
ROI = (Total Profit / Total Bet) X 100

Rules

1. Include your record, weekly profit, and total bet at the top of your post to be included in the community leaderboard. (Ex: Last week (3-1-1): +1.5U, 5U bet)
2. Include the odds and amount bet (units) for each one of your picks.
3. More picks can be added to the same post throughout the week. Do not change picks that were previously posted.
4. If a game is cancelled it will not be counted in the leaderboard. It will not count as a push and the units bets will not be recorded.
5. Flair assignment: - Certified Sharp: ROI > 0% - Commoner: 0% > ROI > -5% - Mega Bum: -5% > ROI

Leaderboard

User	ROI	Record	% Correct	Profit/Loss (U)	Total Bet (U)
u/BrandonAiyuk	+33.45%	9-6-0	60.00%	+7.36	22.00
u/SJT29	+1.49%	77-81-4	48.73%	+2.91	195.00
u/tmen7	-1.18%	144-144-2	50.00%	-3.82	322.50
u/bhaudown	-3.25%	51-50-6	50.50%	-5.82	179.00
u/speediskey7	-15.15%	31-44-0	41.33%	-12.35	81.50

The nation of Michigan raised a few eyebrows whilst it determined to launch its legal having a bet platform on the begin of a worldwide pandemic that has on account that visible the shuttering of all predominant casinos across the United States and the hibernation of marketable sports activities around the globe. Michigan’s release got here speedy after becoming criminal in December, 2019 – within eleven weeks of the Governor signing off at the plan and with designs to coincide with March Madness, an good sized sales generator for sportsbooksaround the United States.

With the canceling of NCAA Basketball’s optimal annual tournament got here the perceived want for Michigan to re-jig the plans. That is precisely what the state and regulators of the platform have accomplished at some point of a time while all casinos and therefore betting possibilities have been correctly closed because of the coronaviruscrisis. One of the principal criticisms of the platform from the outset become its lack of cellular options – something Michigan is working on presently and need to be finalized by the end of this yr.

Projections for the Michigan Scene
According toMichiganSharp.Com, the Michigan felony having a bet marketplace inside the kingdom is predicted to elevate into an elite category with an eye-establishing $650 million in betting and on line revenues its first 12 months. That revenue could make a contribution $93 million in taxes for the country. Sports making a bet is estimated to be $four hundred million of the revenue general which could be chargeable for $33.6 million in tax revenue for the country. Online casinos and poker, to be able to be taxed at among 20-28% will cover the relaxation.

With a populace of 10 million and the Detroit Lions of the NFL, the Detroit Pistons of the NBA, the Detroit Tigers of MLB, the Detroit Red Wings of the NHL and primary collegiate programs the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State Spartans calling the sports activities-crazed state domestic, it is not a shock that Michigan is projected to have the earning ability it does.

At this point, there are 26 retail casinos and 23 tribal casinos running in Michigan – none of which have a web component yet but are setting themselves up for a strong cellular platform.

What Michigan Has Done Wrong
Obviously, the timing of the launch may be questioned but there has been no manner that legislators and regulators in Michigan should have visible COVID-19’s outcomes coming. That said, as soon as the writing become on the wall, the kingdom should have stopped the release altogether.

Michigan also didn't introduce any form of on line making a bet to start off with – cellular became continually going to be a work in development that would culminate in a launch much later. And with brick-and-mortar centers being closed, no cell meant no making a bet in any respect for the higher part of four months. Mobile ought to have been part of the initial plan, so casinos and the state ought to have at the least had an opportunity for revenue era at some stage in the COVID lockdowns.

Last week’s thread can be viewed here.
AS A DISCLAIMER BEFORE WE BEGIN: This post is by no means suggesting that 13-point teasers present some kind of mathematical edge over Vegas nor is it suggesting that you prioritize these teasers over any other bets. However, there are some of you (like me), who like sprinkling a little on these every week for FUN and are interested to see how teasing every side and total plays out over the course of the season. I shouldn’t have to say this, but there were a couple sensitive types who were enraged that some of us enjoy playing teasers.
Anyways, I digress. Here is the table following Week 13’s results: Link
Some interesting findings:

A great week for teasing up underdogs as they went perfect (15-0) on the week. It’s the third time this season that dogs have accomplished the feat, having gone 14-0 in Week 9 and 15-0 in Week 4.
Teasing up dogs +7.5 or above went 7-0 on the week and are 40-3 on the season and 24-1 since Week 6.
Teasing down favorites of -7.5 or greater went 6-1 on the week and are now 26-1 over the last eight weeks
Was a rough week for teasing totals, as they went 23-7 on the week, for its worst week of the season

So how should you approach these going forward?
For me personally, I play a 5-teamer of these every week, which is 9-3 thus far since I started playing them in Week 2, with 57 of the 60 legs hitting. I generally wait until later in the week and take a look at how the line is moving. I’ll find five sides getting the majority of the sharp money and good CLV and add those to my play. Again, I highly recommend waiting until Saturday before playing these so we get the true spread value of all these games.
Again, these are only results from THIRTEEN weeks of play from 2020. For a more reliable sense of how these teasers work, we’d probably have to look back at the past 2-3 seasons as well before getting a better sense of these. So by no means, don’t go blowing little Susie’s college funds on these.
You can follow me on Twitter AT BetWithSeb1 or via the Action Network App AT BetWithSeb.

Last week’s thread can be viewed here.
AS A DISCLAIMER BEFORE WE BEGIN: This post is by no means suggesting that 13-point teasers present some kind of mathematical edge over Vegas nor is it suggesting that you prioritize these teasers over any other bets. However, there are some of you (like me), who like sprinkling a little on these every week for FUN and are interested to see how teasing every side and total plays out over the course of the season. I shouldn’t have to say this, but there were a couple sensitive types who were enraged that some of us enjoy playing teasers.
Anyways, I digress. Here is the table following Week 9’s results: Link.
Some interesting findings:

Coming off consecutive showings of their best combined records since Week 4 at 24-4 and 25-3, underdogs and favorites were a push shy of besting the record for a third consecutive week, going 25-2-1
Teasing up underdogs went perfect for the second time this season—and first since Week 4—putting together a 14-0 record and are now 27-1 over the last two weeks
Teasing down favorites of -7.5 or greater went 3-0 and are now 11-0 over the last four weeks
Teasing up underdogs of +7.5 or greater went 3-0 and are now 20-1 since Week 3
Teasing up underdogs between 1 and 3 went 6-0 on the week and is now 15-0 over the last three weeks
Teasing down overs of 48.5 or higher went 9-0 on the week and is 29-0 since Week 5

So how should you approach these going forward?
For me personally, I play a 5-teamer of these every week, which is 6-2 thus far since I started playing them in Week 2. I generally wait until later in the week and take a look at how the line is moving. I’ll find five sides getting the majority of the sharp money and good CLV and add those to my play. For instance, last week the Saints (+5.5 to +3) were a great play. Again, I highly recommend waiting until Saturday before playing these so we get the true spread value of all these games.
Again, these are only results from NINE weeks of play from 2020. For a more reliable sense of how these teasers work, we’d probably have to look back at the past 2-3 seasons as well before getting a better sense of these. So by no means, don’t go blowing little Susie’s college funds on these.
You can follow me on Twitter AT BetWithSeb1 or via the Action Network App AT BetWithSeb.

I am going to expound at length here about what I believe should be the Bills' primary target to add tot this offense for the coming years:
For the offseason: how do we feel about trading up (~top 10) to land Kyle Pitts? Personally, I think THAT move, singularly, would take Josh Allen, and this franchise, to unbelievable heights for many years to come.
The league is shifting in a way in which having a "plus (+)" player at the tight end position is extremely valuable. And I'm surprised it hasn't happened sooner. A good tight end can be summed up as a pure mismatch player, no matter what you do with him. I'm thinking guys like Kelce, Kittles, Andrews, Waller, and a few others. Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski in their primes. Tony Gonzales and Shannon Sharpe in their days. BIG guys that can really catch the ball and run routes that have the athleticism - way too much speed for most/all linebackers to cover, and way too big for DB's to cover. Game changers in the blocking scheme because they are or nearly as big and strong as D linemen and LB's. Can pick up DB blitzes and also block down field for YAC... all in helping your overall pass-and-run blocking game if they can block. That position carries so much value, and I haven't been impressed by any of the guys we have rotating there for us. I think that ONE gamechanger at TE will plant Josh Allen firmly as a top QB for at least a decade.
And everyone is talking about Trevor Lawrence being the 'can't miss, generational' prospect in this draft. They have said this many times about lots of guys with this same level of hype and been wrong. that's the nature of the QB position and how so many psychological factors and system issues play a part. You really never know, and even Lawrence carries some real risk in aspects you can't really predict until he starts playing. The real generational prospect is Kyle Pitts...
Started following the guy last year and from the very moment he took the field your eyes just fixate on that guy. The dude is 6'6" and 250lb, but he still looks and plays like an elite WR when he's going out. Elite in all aspects - route-running, beating defenders, array of separation moves, and top end speed for the position. When I said he's like a WR out there... a guy that big and he can run 4.4, and they 'say' he can run in the 4.3's (ran the 100m in HS in 10.45s, but obviously he was about 40lb lighter then. Of course these numbers are probably juiced or unverified... but the point is: he is FAST. It is clear on film and by the mere fact that people would not be shocked in the slightest if those numbers hold when he is officially timed.
What he's added is muscle, so it's made him into a solid pass blocker. His athleticism and skills make him great in the running game and he can continue blocking down field with pace ahead of RB's.
But here's where I think we have to do everything possible to get this guy: "spectacular"/ explosive play / chunk catching ability. He will literally catch everything thrown in his direction, relatively within his extensive orbit. In 2 years, the ONLY targets that he did not catch were due to poor throws that weren't close, out of bounds, back of the end zone, etc. I have not seen a guy so easily beat double, and even triple coverage and come down with the ball every time like I have with this guy. You know that brutal hail Murray play that really depressed us for a while? I am willing to bet any amount of money that if you throw a Hail Mary in Pitts' direction 10 times, it's a touchdown at least 6-8 of those times. Moss-like instincts with timing and nose for the football, but over 6'6 with ~40+" leaping ability, massive hands, and... ZERO, i said zero, unforced drops in his 2 years in the SEC, the stiffest competition with, typically, the nation's top defenses that feed the NFL talent pool year after year.
I mentioned those names of great TE's earlier, and I genuinely believe that this guy could surpass all of them if he remains healthy. There is a goofy little futures bet that I placed a while ago with +550 odds at the time that – that I am loving right now – that he will be on the Madden cover by 2025. When we started 4-0 and it became clear our draft pick was going to be very late in the first round (maybe 27+... HOPEFULLY 32!!!) I was thinking he'd be available that late in the 1st round. He also sat out several games this year and I was hoping he'd continue to do so... but it didn't matter. In the games he DID play he was easily the best player on the field and a nightmare for all defenses. He even torched Alabama and thoroughly, consistently, and easily beat Patrick Surtain III, projected top 10 pick and considered the next great CB from this draft. It wasn't even a contest. He will be taken in the top 20 for sure, and some GM's with a need might even take him top 5. He's that good. Play him on the line, put him in the slot, motion him anywhere you want, use exotic schemes, or just simply use him as your prototype, topflight WR1... he'll be the highest tier in any of those roles as a premier receiving weapon. You literally take other teams' defensive playbooks throw half of it in the trash. Man coverage will not be played no matter WHO you have, and this is a guy that got the moniker as a 'zone beater' this past season when he’d get consecutive calls for him for multiple 10-18-yard gains down the field... but it's just the only way you can hope to guard against the singular explosive chunk plays.
He's a guaranteed TD in the red zone, and the best deep ball threat since Randy Moss... I NEVER feel high on prospects. Never have. On the contrary, I roll my eyes and because, if you make the effort you track back, the ‘experts’ completely miss the mark on ~2/3 or more of the first round, the rest either underperform based on expectations/hype, and a few live up to the draft pick. Not to mention the guys taken in later rounds that become superstars and go back, find, and have a good laugh at the past ‘scouting reports’ and ‘draft profiles’ later on. The Mel Kiper's and Todd McShay's and everyone else get it wrong way more often than they get it right. [PS Kiper is taking so much credit for being high on Josh Allen from the start, but he doesn’t want to play that game of analyzing all his mock draft analysis for as long as he’s been doing it]. Congratulations, Mel… but you were MIA, mum on the subject for his first two shaky seasons. I’d prop him up if he was standing by it and standing by his take and say8ing Allen would eventually make that leap. You had nothing to do with his development by this Bills’ coaching team and management. He’d end up a Darnold if he landed with the Jets, and while I always stood by him because our coaches were, and they are trusted, I NEVER expected this kind of dramatic leap between each of his first 3 years. But you’ll take the credit when Beane, McDermott, Daboll, Frazier, all the positions’ coaches worked together in building a long-term, sustainable, and ingrained culture of success that Allen found himself in.
But even though these prospect scouts/analysts DO acknowledge that Pitts is surely lottery pick, I believe they are still grossly sleeping on what a 'generational' player he WILL be, barring health to the extent that I am confident he will be.
Add him to this Bills' passing attack and keep the rest of this receiving corps intact (Diggs and Brown out wide, Davis as a no. 3, Beasley in the slot, McKenzie as the ATH/gadget man, and Andre Roberts as return specialist intact for the foreseeable future) ... the passing attack could be not just the most lethal in the NFL, but a historic one. I don't know if you want to place a ton of focus on the running game, but Moss and Singletary are plenty good enough to do what the run game needs to do, and they have proven that many times over. And although I'd ideally want to avoid this - we saw just last week what a threat Allen himself poses when he (smartly, please) takes off.
The pairing of this player - Pitts - with Allen, in particular, is just so tantalizingly saucy. Allen has shown tremendous accuracy this year, but Pitts completely erases the consequences of the errant throw - he catches everything in his general air space. He is the PERFECT weapon for a QB with elite 'arm talent,' unaffected by velocity, distance, or height. Fast enough to chase down a deep overthrow, will win every red zone/end zone jump ball with size/leaping ability, and the hands, technique, and body control to make every spectacular catch.
I know this has become a massive gush-fest, but if you can believe it, I don't think I'm doing it enough justice with how I believe it can alter the course of our beloved Bills franchise for at least a decade. So I feel the NEED to start some sort of movement or campaign within Bills mafia so that the chatter spreads.
We need to move up from the 32nd pick that we're going to get this year, but exactly how far up is murky. Most of these mocks by various big-name experts and groups have him going in the 12-20 range, while a few have him in the top 10. (One has him going no. 3 overall to Miami in that pick they got from Houston, which would be the WORST thing to happen... on a division rival and arguably the biggest challenger for the next several years). The lowest I saw was him falling to 25, but that is not going to happen. There are several teams with a need and young promising quarterbacks that they'd love to pair with an elite TE for years - I'm thinking the Chargers/Herbert, Bengals/Burrow, the Texans are desperate to make up for their massive fuckup in trading DHop and he'd be lethal with Deshaun.
I understand that the front office and many fans prefer to think in terms of primary roster 'needs,' and want us to find a top notch CB2 opposite Tre, add another top-end, high leverage linebacker, or shore up the interior offensive line to invest in that weakness and further protect our pending long-term investment in Josh Allen for the long haul as well as help with the, at times, average run blocking between the tackles, and I would be completely on board if we went that way. I think we could even add an edge rusher to eventually take the mantle when Hughes retires opposite Addison and with Epenesa moving around/rotating. it does appear we need a more dynamic running back, as well, capable of just finding one hole and gone. Moss and Singletary (bless his heart on that final hilarious TD run last week but it'll be a LONG time before he breaks one like that again) are good enough for how we utilize the run, but they are definitely used situationally - to shorten distance on early downs, pick up critical few yards here and there, manage the clock, and keep the defense honest and not just play dime and nickel all game. But they are NOT home run threats, and it might be nice to have a guy that can do it out of the backfield and not have to rely on risky jet sweeps and gadget plays for McKenzie, Roberts, Brown, and co. We can find that in late rounds/undrafted pool.
I am just imploring that there will be plenty of ways to either make improvements with later picks, in free agency/other offseason moves, at least to hold us over for subsequent opportunities to do so. But [my humble yet unequivocally FIRM opinion] there isn't and won't be a better and/or more synergistic player to pair with Josh Allen to come around in the next ten years.
And that concludes my pitch.
Go Bills!

The thread is open to all sports, including NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB, NHL, MLB, Soccer, etc. Each week’s thread will be run from Tuesday to Monday during the football season.
The community leaderboard is ordered based on ROI (Return On Investment). ROI is calculated by taking the total profit/loss, dividing it by the total amount bet, then multiplying it by 100 to get the ROI %.
ROI = (Total Profit / Total Bet) X 100

Rules

1. Include your record, weekly profit, and total bet at the top of your post to be included in the community leaderboard. (Ex: Last week (3-1-1): +1.5U, 5U bet)
2. Include the odds and amount bet (units) for each one of your picks.
3. More picks can be added to the same post throughout the week. Do not change picks that were previously posted.
4. If a game is cancelled it will not be counted in the leaderboard. It will not count as a push and the units bets will not be recorded.
5. Flair assignment: - Certified Sharp: ROI > 0% - Commoner: 0% > ROI > -5% - Mega Bum: -5% > ROI

Leaderboard

User	ROI	Record	% Correct	Profit/Loss (U)	Total Bet (U)
u/BrandonAiyuk	+33.45%	9-6-0	60.00%	+7.36	22.00
u/SJT29	+0.46%	77-84-4	47.83%	+0.91	197.00
u/tmen7 *	-1.18%	144-144-2	50.00%	-3.82	322.50
u/bhaudown	-3.25%	51-50-6	50.50%	-5.82	179.00
u/speediskey7	-15.15%	31-44-0	41.33%	-12.35	81.50

The Giants are riding a four-game winning streak into Sunday’s matchup with the Cardinals. Here are 10 thoughts on the surging Giants as they try to maintain their spot atop the NFC East:
1. It would be tidier to believe that left tackle Andrew Thomas’ early struggles were due to drastic technique changes imposed by former Giants offensive line coach Marc Colombo, and that the rookie’s recent improvement is simply the result of undoing those bad habits. But the reality is more subtle.
“Obviously, not having a preseason, not having OTAs and things like that had an effect,” Thomas said. “Playing my first couple games, it took a minute to grasp. I’m still getting better, I’m still working, trying to fix some things. I think it just takes times and repetition to get better.”
Thomas said he hasn’t made any drastic changes to his technique in the three weeks since Dave DeGuglielmo replaced Colombo. But getting comfortable facing NFL pass rushers simply took time.
Thomas said things started to click in the Giants’ loss to the Buccaneers in Week 8. Thomas rebounded in that matchup against Tampa Bay’s Jason Pierre-Paul after a dreadful showing the previous week against the Eagles.
That was the start of a turnaround for the No. 4 pick in the draft, as Thomas hasn’t allowed a single pressure in the past two games, according to Pro Football Focus. He allowed 5.1 pressures per game before the matchup with the Bucs.
“I see his level of play improving,” coach Joe Judge said. “But that’s natural for any rookie through the course of the season and just getting more and more experience, especially with the way he had to start this season. Look, this guy came in baptized by fire. He saw some of the top rushers in the world out of the gate.”
Thomas provided insight into the technique adjustments he’s had to make in the NFL after three successful seasons at Georgia. In college, he always set in a 45-degree angle in pass protection. Setting on that angle leaves a tackle susceptible to inside moves by edge rushers, but Thomas said he typically had a guard sliding in his direction to help inside.
But in the NFL, Thomas has been asked to take a more vertical set, which keeps him square to the line longer and is better for dealing with stunts. But it’s also more challenging to master, and it can lead to giving up inside moves, struggling with bull rushes and timing issues with his punch if not executed properly. (Here’s a great breakdown of pass sets from former Giants offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz.)
“I would say a little bit different as far as my hand placement,” Thomas said of technique changes from college. “That’s been something that I have been working on. And set-wise, at Georgia, I was always on a straight and hard 45 (degree) angle. Recently, I’ve been working a little bit more vertical to an angle set just depending on the alignment of pressures.”
Thomas’ biggest struggle early in the season was getting beaten on inside moves. He was oversetting because he was concerned the rusher would get around him to the edge.
“I would overset a lot of times and put myself in a bad position,” Thomas said. “You have to trail your defender, trust your athleticism to push a guy around the pocket so you don’t give up the inside.”
The Giants knew Thomas was capable of performing like this when they took him with the fourth pick in the draft. It took some time, but his play is starting to validate the team’s faith.
2. All signs are pointing toward quarterback Daniel Jones starting Sunday’s game after missing last week’s win over the Seahawks with a hamstring injury. Judge is planning to make a decision after watching Jones in Friday’s practice, but the quarterback has made steady progress.
Jones moved well during the portion of Thursday’s practice that was open to reporters and he was listed as a limited participant, which indicates he split first-team reps with backup Colt McCoy. Judge said Wednesday that he was “optimistic” that Jones would play and the quarterback’s desire to get back on the field is unquestioned.
The only reason Jones would be held out is if Judge doesn’t believe he can move well enough to protect himself. That’s why another practice on Friday will be important for Judge to gather more information on Jones’ progress.
The Giants want Jones back in the lineup because he gives them a better chance to win than McCoy, whose clear limitations were on display in the 17-12 win over Seattle. The other benefit of getting Jones back on the field is the organization will have an opportunity to evaluate the second-year pro in a playoff race. It will be revealing to see how Jones, who was playing better before his injury, responds to the bright lights and higher stakes down the stretch.
3. Leonard Williams is understandably drawing a ton of the attention with 8.5 sacks, which is tied for sixth-most in the NFL. But teammates and coaches have made a point of giving recognition to one of Williams’ colleagues on the defensive line.
“I know Leonard’s disruptive, but I think Dalvin (Tomlinson) is having as good of a year as anybody on our defense,” safety Logan Ryan said. “He’s the nose guard getting double-teamed every play, but he’s taking up two blocks, causing disruption, getting interior push so (Buccaneers quarterback) Tom Brady and these quarterbacks can’t step up against us. He might not get credited with a sack every game, but he’s just as important.”
Tomlinson, who has 1.5 sacks, isn’t generating any Pro Bowl buzz. But he’s been typically reliable — he’s started all 60 games of his career — and is a big reason the Giants have one of the best run defenses in the league.
“Where that D-line is going right as they go through this process is a direct correlation to his leadership and what he does on that field, regardless of what statistics or what have you,” defensive coordinator Patrick Graham said.
Graham, who was Tomlinson’s position coach with the Giants in 2017, raved about his pupil’s maturation. Tomlinson was named the Giants’ Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee on Thursday for his work in the community.
A homegrown player with exemplary character should be a no-brainer to sign long-term. But with Williams and Tomlinson set to become free agents after the season, the Giants have to decide if it’s worth making two significant investments on the defensive line. It seems like they have no choice considering how important Williams and Tomlinson have been to the defense’s success.
4. How dominant has the Giants defense been recently? They have allowed just six defensive touchdowns during their four-game winning streak.
The Giants are allowing 22.1 points per game this season, which ranks ninth best in the NFL. They are tied for eighth in sacks despite a core of edge rushers currently comprised of journeyman Jabaal Sheard, sixth-round pick Cam Brown, seventh-round pick Carter Coughlin and undrafted rookie Niko Lalos. The Giants’ plus-8 turnover ratio over the past four weeks is the best in the NFL.
5. Rookie safety Xavier McKinney has been eased into the lineup in the past two weeks after missing the first 10 games with a broken foot. The second-round pick played five defensive snaps in his debut against the Bengals in Week 12 and six snaps against the Seahawks.
Expect McKinney’s role to increase gradually, with an opportunity for more snaps on Sunday, especially as a spy on Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
“I expect his role to keep increasing and I do expect his play to keep improving because he’s going to be working with the team out there,” Judge said.
6. It’s easy to make comparisons between Murray and Seattle’s Russell Wilson since they’re both undersized quarterbacks with strong arms. But they have very different styles of play, which the Giants have emphasized throughout the week.
“Not that Russell isn’t fast, but this guy Murray is true speed,” Graham said. “When I’m talking to the players, true speed. Not fast, not quick — we’re dealing with true speed. Any mistake, it can be a touchdown at any given moment.”
Murray has 665 yards and six touchdowns on the ground (Wilson has 424 yards and one touchdown rushing). There are some general principles that will carry over from last week, such as maintaining discipline in pass rush lanes.
But Arizona’s scheme is much different than Seattle’s. The Seahawks have a greater emphasis on downfield throws, although Murray has the third-best passer rating in the league on throws over 20 yards (Jones is first). Murray hasn’t played as well since suffering a shoulder injury in Week 11.
Like Seattle, the Cardinals have a marquee No. 1 receiver. DeAndre Hopkins has 85 catches for 1,019 yards and five touchdowns and is far more polished than Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf. It will be another tough matchup for Giants cornerback James Bradberry, who has been up to the task all season.
Coach Kliff Kingsbury brought the Air Raid offense with him from college. That means a lot of up-tempo play that stresses defenses since it limits substitutions, which will make it more difficult for Graham to get different types of packages onto the field. There are also a lot of horizontal passing concepts, so cornerbacks need to be sound tacklers to limit the yardage on wide receiver screens.
The Cardinals aren’t as pass-happy as college spread offenses. In addition to Murray’s rushing threat, Kenyan Drake is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has eight rushing touchdowns, and No. 2 back Chase Edmonds, who had three touchdowns against the Giants last season, is averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
7. The Giants will see some familiar faces on Sunday. Former Giants Markus Golden, Devon Kennard and Justin Pugh will make their return to MetLife Stadium as visitors.
The Giants dealt Golden to Arizona in exchange for a sixth-round pick at this season’s trade deadline. Golden had 10 sacks last season for the Giants but was buried by the new coaching staff, playing just 36 percent of the snaps in seven games.
The Cardinals had a need for an edge rusher after Chandler Jones suffered a torn biceps in Week 5, and Golden has instantly claimed a significant role. He’s playing 73 percent of the snaps and his 20 pressures in five games rank second on the team for the season.
Kennard was a solid player for four seasons after being selected by the Giants in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. The Giants let Kennard walk in free agency in 2018 and he signed a three-year, $17.25 million contract with the Lions (the Giants instead signed Kareem Martin to a three-year, $15 million contract).
Kennard was a solid player for the Lions, recording seven sacks in each of his two seasons in Detroit while serving as a captain, but he was a surprise cap casualty in the offseason. The 29-year-old landed in Arizona on a three-year, $20 million contract. He has two sacks in more of a reserve role this season.
Like Kennard, Pugh was a Jerry Reese draft pick who wasn’t retained in free agency after Dave Gettleman took over as general manager in 2018. Pugh signed a five-year, $44.8 million contract with the Cardinals and his injury history followed him to Arizona, as he was limited to seven games in 2018. But Pugh has started 28 straight games and his play has been similar to that during his time in New York: solid but unspectacular.
8. Former Giants coach Ray Perkins died Wednesday. The 79-year-old Perkins led the Giants out of a dark period in the franchise’s history. He had a 23-34 record from 1979-82, leading the Giants to the playoffs in 1981 to end an 18-year postseason drought.
Perkins left the Giants after the strike-shortened 1982 season to take the head coaching job at his alma mater, Alabama. He was succeeded by his defensive coordinator, Bill Parcells, who led the Giants to two Super Bowl titles.
Judge, who was an assistant at Alabama from 2009-11, had a few interactions with Perkins. Judge recalled advice Perkins shared during a conversation they had in the spring of 2012.
“He spent a lot of time with me that day, actually talking about being a young coach and really working with players and developing the players,” Judge said. “The development of the players is what he really hammered me with, and that really came after a spring practice and watching a lot of young guys out there trying to plug guys around and find the right spots for them. He was just sharing some wisdom along, ‘Hey listen, give everybody an opportunity to improve and don’t make your mind up too early from what you think someone can do.’”
It’s clear that the advice stuck with Judge. Players such as cornerback Isaac Yiadom and safety Julian Love were benched early in the season, but injuries forced them back into the lineup and they’ve developed into serviceable defensive pieces.
Judge’s reverence for the Giants’ history is evident. One nod to the franchise’s past that Judge has incorporated is having the team’s practice players of the week wear the jersey of a Ring of Honor member the week after a win. So there have been jerseys bearing the names of Frank Gifford (McCoy) and Y.A. Tittle (Clayton Thorson) on the practice field in recent weeks.
“To me, the history of this organization is very important,” Judge said. “It’s very important for all of our players coming in here to understand that this team has been here a lot longer than they have been around. It’s up to us to understand the history of this organization and who has come before us to make this a great place to be.”
9. When Judge speaks about big-picture coaching concepts, it’s easy to understand why he impressed the Giants brass when he interviewed in January. His explanation of how teams improve over the course of a season was enlightening.
“On the field, I don’t think you can ever leave that training camp mindset where you have to emphasize fundamentals and technique on a daily basis, and you have to stay sharp on that,” Judge said. “A lot of times you get to this point of the season, it becomes so much about scheme. What you see is, when you come out of training camp early in the season, there’s not as much scheme involved, but the fundamentals have to improve. You get to October and beginning of November, the scheme has come more together as a team, and maybe the fundamentals have improved to a degree, but it’s kind of leveled off.
“When you get to the backend of the season, you have a mix of two different types of teams. You have teams that continue to improve schematically and fundamentally, and you have other teams that have overloaded the schematics, forgot about the fundamentals and they fall off. While they may have a great scheme on the grass, they can’t make a tackle, can’t finish a block, can’t hold onto the ball with ball security, can’t deliver a throw in pressure situations. The fundamentals have to always be there to be a successful team.”
10. Nate Solder made his first public comments since opting out for the season this week in an interview in the New York Post. The story is worth a read to learn about the charitable work Solder is doing this fall.
From a football standpoint, I always felt like there was a strong possibility Solder would retire when he opted out. Nothing he said in the interview changed that sense.
“I feel like I’m in such a blessed position because I’ve had a window into what life after football is going to look like,” Solder told the Post. “If it ends like this, I really enjoy what I’m doing and the opportunities I have. That does not mean it’s going to happen now. It could be in two, three years. I have not made that decision yet.”
Though Solder is keeping his options open, he certainly doesn’t sound like someone who desperately misses football and can’t wait to return. Solder turns 33 in May. He has played in 130 games, won two Super Bowl rings, endured countless injuries and earned over $70 million. With three young children, including 5-year-old Hudson who is battling cancer, and ambitions far beyond football, it would not be a surprise if Solder walks away.
If Solder retires this offseason, the financial implications are the same as if he gets cut or traded. The Giants would get $5.9 million in cap savings while eating $10.5 million in dead money.
The Giants also could designate Solder as a post-June 1 cut (or he could wait until after June 1 to retire). That would result in $9.9 million in cap savings and $6.5 million in dead money in 2021. The additional $4 million in dead money would count against the 2022 cap with a post-June 1 cut.
With Thomas entrenched at left tackle and fellow rookie Matt Peart being developed to take over at right tackle, it seems unlikely that the Giants will be interested in retaining Solder at his cap hit. He could take the decision out of their hands by retiring. Prediction: Giants 24, Cardinals 22. I’m officially a believer. I learned my lesson by picking a lopsided loss to the Seahawks last week. Winning that game with McCoy has erased my doubts about the Giants’ legitimate improvement. I’m not expecting it to be pretty, but I’ve learned not to bet against this defense.

For instance I’ve had tons of success betting nfl and some success in mlb. However even though basketball is my favorite sport I don’t ever have success betting it. It is infuriating, especially because I believe my process and bets are good. So are there any successful NBA betters who could explain their process? I am going to try to explain how I go about choosing bets and my process in finding good nfl bets. Maybe we can all help each other. It might be a bit lengthy to explain so bear with me.
For NFL, I believe you can gain a lot of insight by watching the games and that is the number one requisite for making good game picks. I also think you should write down your picks/ideas for next week right after the previous week. That way all that you watched is fresh in your mind and you aren’t swayed by what you hear during the week. I believe there is a lot of value in statistics but that they are more beneficial to player props, team scores, and those types of bets rather than game spreads. I also put a lot of value in the game flow for each team in accordance with the game total. By game flow I mean when a team gets up big they usually start to run the ball a lot more and teams that are down start to pass. Also in a high scoring game with lots of possesions players can accumulate a lot more stats. This is by no means infallible but I have found to be very helpful The best way to explain this process might be in an example analysis for a game.
Prior to last nights game I knew from watching both teams that buffalo has an elite offense and an elite defense that has gotten much better but can be susceptible to the run. I knew the patriot’s defense was bad especially their run defense. I also knew the patriots offense was inept especially when passing. So from an eye test I knew bills were the bet and I used an alternate spread of -6.5 to avoid the key number 7. It didn’t matter but this is something I usually do. I also bet bills ML as one leg of a two leg alternate spread/teaser parlay. I wasn’t sure about the overall total however I did bet under patriots team total and under 2.5 total TDs. I did this because of eye test and game flow I talked about earlier. I suspected bills would be up and patriots would need to pass in the second half to score which they would be unable to do. This was a great scenario to bet because the bills pass defense is their strength and patriots pass offense is their weakness. There can be a lot less variation in strength against weakness.
So keeping in mind that the eye test of pats run defense is bad, they are 27th in opponents rushing yards, and bills should be playing ahead I bet over on singletarys rushing yards and over moss’s rush yards. Figuring at least one would hit covering my money and probably both. I shopped around on 3 books to make sure I got the best lines for each which mattered because singletarys varied and only went over by 1.5 yards which it would have been under on the other. I also bet under cam newton longest pass 30.5 yards and under Cam newton fantasy points because of pats bad pass offense and bills good pass defense. I did this based on the eye test, the fact that buffalos pass defense is ranked 8th and patriots pass offense is near the bottom. Again weakness against strength with game flow helping. I was thinking about over michels rush yards cause bills run defense isn’t good and rush offense is pats strength but due to the game flow I decided not. He did end up hitting but most of his yards came in the first quarter. Now this is a game where I was right about most aspects, however there are days where I am completely wrong about it all and lose every bet but today it worked out. All games aren’t clear like this in terms of strength verse weakness, this was just a great example game.
To summarize, for NFL You want to watch games, eye test can provide a lot of insight. Also check box scores after, see who got what stats then think about why. Know the strengths and weakness of the team you are betting on based on their statistics. I used to use DVOA but now it costs money to see so I use per game stats. Also think about the game flow and how that might work in your favor or against you. I would also suggest being disciplined in games you pick. Find a few games a week you really like a team or some weeks don’t even bet at all. Or find a player prop you like and don’t bet the total. I believe player props and fantasy pt totals are much easier to bet because they get less action making their lines less sharp. I believe nfl lines are usually very accurate so often bet 2 leg teasers. I never bet big parlays. I also find certain trends over time, such as a good defensive team with average offense against a good offensive team with bad defense where the spread is negligible youll want to take the good defensive team. Examples include colts verse Houston first matchup and dolphins verse raiders this past week. This all comes from experience which you need. Whenever you are making a bet, you should also be able to explain to a sports beginner why it is a smart bet. Also don’t bet big after a good day/week, you should bet small or even take a break after having a good day. Confidence isn’t your friend, just as being on tilt or emotional is your worst enemy. I also suggest switching up bets after you are successful, if you pick 5 nfl games right habit will tell you that you can pick more game winners. Chances are you won’t and should find other bets whether its totals or props. This is my view point at least, I get caught up making the same type of bet even though it’s not great because I have had prior success with it. If anyone has any questions about how to bet nfl I can try to answer.
As for my nba struggles. On Sunday warriors played bulls, two teams top 5 in pace. I was going to bet the over cause of this but didn’t trust two bad teams. A bet that looked great was over 6.5 curry assists. He had 10 assits in his first game in 30 mins where his team only scored 99 pts in a blowout. In his second game he had 6 assists in 29 minutes where his team only scored 99 in a blowout. So in a high scoring game that should be close curry should get 35 minutes and contribute at least 7 of his teams average 20+ assists. I did think about going with over curry points but went with his assists. He ended up with 36 pts and 6 assists. I believe I had great value here. Another bet was over harell 16.5 pts in the lakers verse timberwolves game. Anthony davis out so I figured more scoring opportunities for Harrell in a game where lakers should get 115-120+. Again I thought of betting over lakers total but didn’t. He ended up with 12 pts in 20 minutes because lakers blew them out so badly that everyone scored and he didn’t get his usual minutes. I think these bets were both great value but both didn’t happen. It seems like there is so much variance in the nba. In nfl there is one or two reasons why a bet wouldn’t hit. In nba everything can go exactly as you thought and it still doesn’t hit. So is nba just difficult to bet cause anything can happen? Does anyone have any good tips or a good process on how to bet?

The thread is open to all sports, including NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB, NHL, MLB, Soccer, etc. Each week’s thread will be run from Tuesday to Monday during the football season.
The community leaderboard is ordered based on ROI (Return On Investment). ROI is calculated by taking the total profit/loss, dividing it by the total amount bet, then multiplying it by 100 to get the ROI %.
ROI = (Total Profit / Total Bet) X 100

Rules

1. Include your record, weekly profit, and total bet at the top of your post to be included in the community leaderboard. (Ex: Last week (3-1-1): +1.5U, 5U bet)
2. Include the odds and amount bet (units) for each one of your picks.
3. More picks can be added to the same post throughout the week. Do not change picks that were previously posted.
4. If a game is cancelled it will not be counted in the leaderboard. It will not count as a push and the units bets will not be recorded.
5. Flair assignment: - Certified Sharp: ROI > 0% - Commoner: 0% > ROI > -5% - Mega Bum: -5% > ROI

Leaderboard

User	ROI	Record	% Correct	Profit/Loss (U)	Total Bet (U)
u/BrandonAiyuk	+33.45%	9-6-0	60.00%	+7.36	22.00
u/SJT29	+1.49%	77-81-4	48.73%	+2.91	195.00
u/tmen7	-0.26%	144-143-2	50.17%	-0.82	319.50
u/bhaudown	-3.25%	51-50-6	50.50%	-5.82	179.00
u/speediskey7	-15.15%	31-44-0	41.33%	-12.35	81.50

Last week’s thread can be viewed here.
AS A DISCLAIMER BEFORE WE BEGIN: This post is by no means suggesting that 13-point teasers present some kind of mathematical edge over Vegas nor is it suggesting that you prioritize these teasers over any other bets. However, there are some of you (like me), who like sprinkling a little on these every week for FUN and are interested to see how teasing every side and total plays out over the course of the season. I shouldn’t have to say this, but there were a couple sensitive types who were enraged that some of us enjoy playing teasers.
Anyways, I digress. Here is the table following Week 11’s results: Link
Some interesting findings:

Was a very good week for either teasing up underdogs or teasing down favorites, with both going 13-1 on the week. The 13-1 showing is the best for teasing down favorites all season and the overall 26-2 record for teasing sides is the best overall mark of the season as well.
The stretch of unders performing better than overs continued, as under went 12-1-1 and are now 25-2-1 over the last two weeks while teasing down overs had its worst showing of the season at 10-3-1
Teasing down favorites of -7.5 or greater went 2-0 and are now 15-0 over the last six weeks

So how should you approach these going forward?
For me personally, I play a 5-teamer of these every week, which is 7-3 thus far since I started playing them in Week 2. I generally wait until later in the week and take a look at how the line is moving. I’ll find five sides getting the majority of the sharp money and good CLV and add those to my play. Again, I highly recommend waiting until Saturday before playing these so we get the true spread value of all these games.
Again, these are only results from TEN weeks of play from 2020. For a more reliable sense of how these teasers work, we’d probably have to look back at the past 2-3 seasons as well before getting a better sense of these. So by no means, don’t go blowing little Susie’s college funds on these.
You can follow me on Twitter AT BetWithSeb1 or via the Action Network App AT BetWithSeb.

The thread is open to all sports, including NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB, NHL, MLB, Soccer, etc. Each week’s thread will be run from Tuesday to Monday during the football season.
The community leaderboard is ordered based on ROI (Return On Investment). ROI is calculated by taking the total profit/loss, dividing it by the total amount bet, then multiplying it by 100 to get the ROI %.
ROI = (Total Profit / Total Bet) X 100

Rules

1. Include your record, weekly profit, and total bet at the top of your post to be included in the community leaderboard. (Ex: Last week (3-1-1): +1.5U, 5U bet)
2. Include the odds and amount bet (units) for each one of your picks.
3. More picks can be added to the same post throughout the week. Do not change picks that were previously posted.
4. If a game is cancelled it will not be counted in the leaderboard. It will not count as a push and the units bets will not be recorded.
5. Flair assignment: - Certified Sharp: ROI > 0% - Commoner: 0% > ROI > -5% - Mega Bum: -5% > ROI

Leaderboard

User	ROI	Record	% Correct	Profit/Loss (U)	Total Bet (U)
u/BrandonAiyuk	+33.45%	9-6-0	60.00%	+7.36	22.00
u/SJT29	+1.49%	77-81-4	48.73%	+2.91	195.00
u/tmen7	-0.26%	144-143-2	50.17%	-0.82	319.50
u/bhaudown	-3.25%	51-50-6	50.50%	-5.82	179.00
u/speediskey7	-15.15%	31-44-0	41.33%	-12.35	81.50

The thread is open to all sports, including NFL, CFB, NBA, CBB, NHL, MLB, Soccer, etc. Each week’s thread will be run from Tuesday to Monday during the football season.
The community leaderboard is ordered based on ROI (Return On Investment). ROI is calculated by taking the total profit/loss, dividing it by the total amount bet, then multiplying it by 100 to get the ROI %.
ROI = (Total Profit / Total Bet) X 100

Rules

1. Include your record, weekly profit, and total bet at the top of your post to be included in the community leaderboard. (Ex: Last week (3-1-1): +1.5U, 5U bet)
2. Include the odds and amount bet (units) for each one of your picks.
3. More picks can be added to the same post throughout the week. Do not change picks that were previously posted.
4. If a game is cancelled it will not be counted in the leaderboard. It will not count as a push and the units bets will not be recorded.
5. Flair assignment: - Certified Sharp: ROI > 0% - Commoner: 0% > ROI > -5% - Mega Bum: -5% > ROI

Leaderboard

User	ROI	Record	% Correct	Profit/Loss (U)	Total Bet (U)
u/BrandonAiyuk	+33.45%	9-6-0	60.00%	+7.36	22.00
u/SJT29	+1.49%	77-81-4	48.73%	+2.91	195.00
u/tmen7	-0.26%	144-143-2	50.17%	-0.82	319.50
u/bhaudown	-3.25%	51-50-6	50.50%	-5.82	179.00
u/speediskey7	-15.15%	31-44-0	41.33%	-12.35	81.50

Last week’s thread can be viewed here.
AS A DISCLAIMER BEFORE WE BEGIN: This post is by no means suggesting that 13-point teasers present some kind of mathematical edge over Vegas nor is it suggesting that you prioritize these teasers over any other bets. However, there are some of you (like me), who like sprinkling a little on these every week for FUN and are interested to see how teasing every side and total plays out over the course of the season. I shouldn’t have to say this, but there were a couple sensitive types who were enraged that some of us enjoy playing teasers.
Anyways, I digress. Here is the table following Week 8’s results: link
Some interesting findings:

Coming off their best combined record last week (24-4) since Week 4, underdogs and favorites topped last week’s performance going 25-3
Teasing up underdogs went 13-1 for its best week since going 15-0 in Week 4
Teasing down favorites of -7.5 or above went 3-0 and is now 8-0 over the last three weeks
Teasing up underdogs of +7.5 or above went 3-0 and are now 17-1 since Week 3
Teasing overs and unders went 25-3 overall for its best week since going 29-3 in Week 3
Teasing down and up totals under 44 went 8-0 in Week 8

So how should you approach these going forward?
For me personally, I play a 5-teamer of these every week. I generally wait until later in the week and take a look at how the line is moving. I’ll find five sides getting the majority of the sharp money and good CLV and add those to my play. For instance, last week the Vikings (+7 to +5.5), Steelers (+5.5 to +3.5), Falcons (+3 to +1.5) and Raiders (+3 to +1) would have been great targets.
Again, these are only results from EIGHT weeks of play from 2020. For a more reliable sense of how these teasers work, we’d probably have to look back at the past 2-3 seasons as well before getting a better sense of these. So by no means, don’t go blowing little Susie’s college funds on these.
You can follow me on Twitter AT BetWithSeb1 or via the Action Network App AT BetWithSeb.

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