First let me say I am making this post in response to the amazing and overwhelming comments I received as a result of my comment on another post. You guys are all amazing. I waited until my wife was home and she's here with my as I type making sure I don't miss anything and also to fact check when I exaggerate as I have a tendency to do.
TL;DR: I was a middle-class suburban bum who didn't know anything about money and my wife came from nothing and her work ethic and ability to organize money led me to pay off my student loans last week
Now to get an idea of both myself and my wife I'll give you a little background. I came from a typical Middle Class, suburban American family. My mom is a nurse and my dad has done everything from own a chair factory to delivering dental supplies, but we always were pretty well off. This is also partly due to my father's family being very wealthy and allowing him to inherit the money to buy his home with zero mortgage. Financially, I was taught little or nothing growing up, everyone is aware of the lack of financial prep in the US school system, and my family treated money as a sort of "dirty" topic. If you did something for free you were "clean" and "noble" if you did things outright for the pay it was "mercenary" and not considered good. When I was told to look for careers both me and my siblings weren't told "make sure you can make a living and take care of yourselves" but "do what you love, the money doesn't matter" and the classic "money doesn't bring happiness". It took me years to learn that a lack of money can certainly bring UNhappiness.
So, as a result, I found myself making a series of financial mistakes my whole life. Everything from not opening a line of credit (I thought I was "beating the dirty bankers") to develop my credit score, to repeatedly overdrawing my checking account to be hit with $500 overage fees AND additional $25 late on paying the overage fees-fees (Once I owed up to $2000 without realizing and only by pleading with both the bank to reduce it to $1000 and my mom to pay it off did I escape that fiasco). And I never really learned. After moving out of the house I did get used to checking my checking account to make sure I had enough money to pay various bills and rent, though I do remember forgetting a few times and having my water shut off. Long story short I found myself an adult with no career, $80,000+ in student loan debt, and zero idea of how to progress.
Now my wife's story is about as opposite as you can get. She was born in Thailand. Her mother was from an extremely poor farming family who sometimes had one bowl of rice to share for the whole family for the day. Her dad was a little better off with a more middle class family and worked as an electrician of sorts. My wife's mother was his second marriage after he drove the first wife off and it was an arranged marriage that my wife's mother did not was to do. She has an older half sister from her father's first marriage (who is a mess) and her father did NOT want another girl, he wanted a boy. In fact her nickname to this day is "Bee" stemming from her being "Plan B" or "If it's a boy, his name is A, if it's a girl she's B".
That theme sort of continued while she was young. Her sister was given as much as the family could support, being the oldest, and had all the normal things like schools supplies and even had her university studies paid for by their father (she dropped out). My wife on the other hand had to make due with hand me down clothes that her mom would sew deep hems in the skirts to fit her body which she would eventually let out bit by bit as she grew. When she wanted to go to school her father told her she had to find the money herself because the family couldn't afford it.
Thankfully, her mom (basically to keep her occupied while her mom was at work) had signed her up for every athletics program under the sun from a very young age and thanks to both good academic grades and a talent for basketball she not only achieved scholarships to a college prep school but to one of the most prestigious universities in the country. She just told me to make sure that I mention how her mom had her keep a record of her spending and saving on a piece of paper ever since she got a small allowance as a little girl and learn how to cut out "unnecessary things" (her favorite mantra that I picked up).
While at University my wife had to struggle in the extreme as not only did her family not help with tuition, but food, housing, books, clothes, or anything else was up to her. She had to find a way to make enough money to live and study while competing both for the schools basketball and, occasionally, the schools Judo team, which any student athlete can tell you is already a full time job.
It was hard, very hard. "The lowest point of my life" she says. She made money by doing freelance work as a graphics designer (she majored in Animation and Graphic Design, she always wanted to learn to paint but decided she'd never make money doing that, to this day she's an amazing sketch artist and painter btw). She went for years subsiding on about $40 a month. She couldn't even afford rice to eat and had to buy bulk packs of ramen noodles which she supplemented with discount vegetables to literally not get scurvy. This whole time she watched as her family descended into chaos as her grandfather (on her dad's side) passed away and his children, her aunts and uncles fought like hyenas over an elephants carcass over the inheritance and her sister ended up stealing from her father large sums of money, ran off, got pregnant, abandoned her children and came back to continue a sad decline into drugs and bad life choices.
She graduated eventually and tried to make a living as a graphic artist in Thailand, but her dad had lost his job due to a declining mental state caused by PTSD from several brushes with Thailand's underworld while he was an electrical building inspector. So now, she had to support her father (and as a result her sister) on her own. After two years of trying in Thailand she realized she wouldn't be able to and ended up decided to leave Thailand and become and au pair to support her family. I'd like to add that through my wife I've met a lot of au pairs and their lot is utter garbage and little better than slavery in many situations and while many come from decent backgrounds just trying to make some money while they explore the wider world, most are desperate and trying to find a way to escape the poverty of their homes like my wife.
I met my wife in America. I was working as a fat, more than broke delivery driver and she was a struggling au pair working basically 24/7 (I know it's technically not, but when you live in the home you work it does it really matter if you're on the clock if the baby wakes up crying?) and making $195 a week. She sent back $350 a month to support her family and saved the rest as best she could. I had no idea how much I made or where it went aside from I hadn't had an overcharge fee in a little while.
Eventually after meeting, falling in love, and deciding to get married she eventually quit being an au pair and moved in with my and my family (after I moved back to America I moved in with my parents where I still live today) and the journey of first discovering my financial mess and fixing it began, and oh boy, what I write can only scratch the edge of the weekly "checkups" and arguments and lectures and stress that went into this development, it wasn't easy for either of us. She couldn't believe she'd become partners with such a disorganized mess and for me it proved to be VERY hard to learn to curb your spending when you never thought to before.
Luckily, I had "graduated" from being a delivery driver to working at Solar City. The first step on a long journey that eventually led to me joining the Ironworkers Union. On my development my wife showed me how to keep a physical record of every single penny I spent and earned. I would keep it up for a week, forget and loose the book then she would buy me another one and we began again. I have a closet full of about a dozen checking account books. Then she had me organize my student loans. I had no idea how much my monthly minimums were and was shocked to find out it was almost $700/mo. She taught me what interest was. These were the first steps.
I struggled, I mean really struggled to get the basic concepts of knowing where my money was at all times. Old me thought that was a waste of brain energy and it was a hard mentality to break. I'd say at least a year went by before I really understood how much I made each week/month and what my monthly expenditures were and by then I'd taken my second step in my career as a laborer working for a commercial solar company. Now I was making enough money to start paying off my loans consistently on my own (my mom had been paying part each month) even with my sloppy book keeping. This was the second biggest motivator in my life to get my sh*t together, seeing a light at the end of the tunnel and knowing that, yes I in fact could climb out of my hole myself. This and the other motivation led me to working as much overtime as possible and picking up a second job as a pizza delivery guy Friday-Sunday. I was not working more than I thought was possible (depending on overtime opportunities between 65-85 hours a week).
The main motivation though, was seeing my wife's growth no matter how many hours I worked she always ALWAYS worked more it was inspiring, exhaustin and terrifying at times to see. In my previous comment I said she'd nearly doubled her income a year, and I wasn't joking. After she left being an au pair she had to wait 6 grueling months to get her green card. It nearly drove her insane and she ended up working under the table as a cleaning lady to continue to support her family. She'd clean everything from ritsy homes in Cambdrige and Brookline to the utterly disgusting college kid housing around BC/BU/Harvard areas. She kept a paper record this whole time and is checking it now to see how much she made she made a little over $1000/month.
After she was cleared for work she continued as a cleaning lady but also got a job as a cashier, eventually a waitress at a local Vietnamese restaurant. She stopped being an au pair in January, in June she was making $1000/mo, July $1800, August $2100, September $2700, October $3000. She just read those off (I'm rounding to the nearest $100). A year later she'd left the cleaning job and started working as a waitress at a second restaurant as well as picking up shifts at David's Bridal as a seamstress, eventually maxing out at $4500/mo. In March 2018 she made $5200. This is just from pure willpower and work ethic. After going over the numbers this is where she maxes out for the present but even if it's not doubled (sorry my own exaggeration) since then this, to me, is an outstanding growth.
So watching her fight like that how could I not? I worked my bun off right next to her. She taught me to push like I never pushed before and now that I was putting in that many hours and that much effort I finally not only had the knowledge how to track my money but I had a deep desire to know where every drop of sweat was being saved or spent. I got better at accounting using Mint and my bank's online manager. I followed my 401k growth, I checked how much I was spending on gas, on work clothes, I didn't write it down like she did but I learned to keep track of everything. Nothing motivates someone knowing how much they have like knowing how hard it is to earn.
Eventually I got into the Union after years in construction. With my wife's work ethic driving my I'd garnered a reputation as a motivated and dedicated hand wherever I went. I might not be the best, but you can bet I'd be the first there and the last to leave, very few people out worked me. This reputation eventually got me noticed by a Union member and thanks to years of trying to keep up with my wife I'd grown into a much better person and while it can be very difficult to get into a Union it took one week from my first meeting to being on a jobsite with a Union outfit, riding an elevator up the biggest building I'd ever worked on (50ish stories) and up to a career that could support my own family the rest of my life. All thanks to my wife. After that I'd graduated the whole "watch your money" phase she taught me more, and we learned together. I started paying off my loans early in a focused way, starting with the highest interest first. I opened credit cards and used them both sparingly and paid them off each week to keep my balance low and my credit score high. I started investing in basic stocks to get a feel for the market, putting about 10% of my paycheck in as a learning cost and two years after getting into the ironworkers union I FINALLY paid off the last of my student debt. From $80,000+ to $0 all thanks to my wife's guidance and teachings.
Sorry this is an aside but it's actually funny, compared to any American construction worker I was a hungry tiger who devoured work, and it actually meant I ended up being classified less as "one of the Americans" but was adopted by the other class of hungry-tiger-worker in my industry: the other immigrants. Construction in any state in the US is done by Spanish immigrants, not completely but they are a constant and huge presence on any jobsite. Most I've met work like my wife. Voraciously. They came from harder lives than most can understand (An Elsalvadorian friend of mine, and the best carpenter I've ever seen, tell me how when he was 12 a guerrila army told him he was to fight with them or they'd kill his mom so he did that until a helicopter gunship killed them all so he ran and got a job loading boulders onto trucks). My motto since then has been "Work like an immigrant, get paid like a citizen". That last part is unfortunately since many are illegal they get taken hugely advantage of with no options.
To finish this insanely long tale: After I got in the Union my wife saw how the Union allowed minorities and women a chance to work in the trades and the benefits both in take home pay, and in benefits (Insurance, annuity, pension, vacation pay, free training) and decided she wanted to make the move, too. Ever since she was little she wanted to be like her dad, an electrician, but he told her girls couldn't do it. Now, when the opportunity presented itself she gave it her all, like she always does, and less than a year later she is the top student in her 1st year technician apprentice class and had multiple supers and foremen tell her she'll be a foreman soon, which I never doubted.

EDIT: Holy cows guys, thank you so much for all the love, it really is overwhelming! Bee can't wait to see what the next comment says and is just glowing and I'm practically in tears. Thank you again you're all so kind.

Hi all, please bear with me because this may be long. This is a new account for this thread.
Today is my first day reading this thread and reflecting on myself after ~5 weeks of consistent chasing sports betting losses. I just turned 25 and have lost just about all $ I've been able to save throughout the pandemic. While peers are out taking advantage of lower prices from airlines and traveling (not necessarily the healthiest move), my goal was to save as much money as possible throughout the pandemic to be able to do what I please after the restrictions are lifted.
I prefer to bet on college basketball, and since the season started, I had been consistently winning anywhere from $50-$500 a week, betting with $50 units. After ~7 or 9 weeks, I became extremely greedy. I am terrible at sticking to my rules, though, and always end up taking dumb-ass bets from some tout on twitter who's hot, or just some pick my buddy likes, or whatever may have you. I am a compulsive gambler. The person who says 'don't gamble what you don't want to lose', that was not me. I would rationalize with myself that I always had another way of finding the $ if it didn't hit, or rationalize that I can always ask for more credit, etc.
A little about me, I studied finance in college and have always had sub-par savings/spending habits. I have no credit card debt (for now, not likely that will remain) and a great credit score, I had just always been a bit spend-happy on items I don't need. I have been working under an investment advisor for a bit now, and ironically I haven't been able to utilize an ounce of what I've learned when it comes to gambling. I've sat and watched friends and folks online make so much money trading stocks - I'm not allowed to do this stuff because our personal accounts are monitored for work - something I feel I'd be very skilled with because of what I study for work. This is where my problem began and I started to develop a nasty case of FOMO - and a feeling that the universe for some reason owes me something. I started to unbelievably feel like my "big win" was coming and I just had to keep putting the money up(becuase I had been winning deceently for a bit). This is where my biggest problem is as far as coping stems.. I can't get over the disconnect between my personal life and professional(work) life. "Who the hell would take investment advise from someone who compulsively gambled savings away?" I keep saying over and very to myself. I had added rigorously to an investment account over the past year, that is now completely depleted and sent to my bookie. The past two weeks I have slowly realized the mistakes I've made, and today is my "Day 1" if you will. I've got more credit, but instead just telling the bookie to change my password and close my account.
My main issue is that I can't get over the fact that I blew such a large amount (relative to me), and I just don't know where to start. I guess I just want to say thank you to anyone who may have read this, but mainly, any advice on where to start and how to change my mindset. The 'getting yourself back to where you were' is less of a challenge for me. I've helped folks in similar situations with credit card debt through my career - it's the toll that this is taking on my relationship with clients, my girlfriend, my bosses, etc. It has put serious harm on my mindset, confidence, demeanor, everything. I've even been eating less, workout less, mental health diminishing. Just need help on how to even begin with it..
IMPORTANT: I do not want to come off as though my problems are worse/more important than anyoen elses. This is just a very hard situation to grasp.
Edit: I didn't put the amount. In the past ~5 weeks I went from up ~2k (on the year)to down ~12k - essentially all of my savings.

Back in September 2019, Michael Burry predicted an index fund bubble. Since I invest index funds and write about them with relish, I was intrigued. But I quickly moved on.
Then another headline caught my eye. It was an episode of Odd Lots podcast titled, “Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting the Market.” I immediately listened to the episode, featuring investor and fund manager Mike Green. And then I listened again. Considering a lot of my net worth is currently tied up in index funds, I want to understand why some people think index funds are fools’ gold.
So today, I’m going to play devil’s advocate and talk about both sides of the conversation. Is there an index fund bubble? A market crash around the corner? Or is passive investing still the winning strategy it’s always been?
Below, you’ll find compelling arguments from investors Mike Green and Michael Burry, who both say there is a bubble. Then I’ll follow up with comments from financial analyst Ben Carlson and portfolio manager Ben Felix, both of whom see no bubble . It’s #TeamMike vs. #TeamBen. I’ll also pull some soundbites from Raoul Pal, a former hedge fund manager who now produces financial videos with a silky British accent. And then I’ll add in my own thoughts at the end.

Quick reminder: what’s an index fund?

An index fund owns a wide assortment of assets (e.g. stocks), and owns those assets in proportion to their market share. Uh…that’s a lot of FinSpeak. Let’s break it down.
For an example, let’s look at an S&P 500 index fund. An S&P 500 index fund would own all of the stocks in the S&P 500. Since Apple and Microsoft each make up about 5% of the S&P 500, this index fund would be comprised of about 5% Apple and 5% Microsoft. But Chipotle would only compose about 0.08% of the index, because it’s 0.08% of the S&P. In this way, the index fund is benchmarked to the S&P, like a shadow that follows all of the body’s movements.
Similarly, a “total stock market fund” would own every stock in the market. There are tons of options in the index fund world.
Let’s get into the arguments that claim indexing is now in a bubble.

Part I – Bubble! – “The tail is now wagging the dog”

One of Mike Green’s first points on Odd Lots is this: the original idea behind indexing is that active traders and actively managed funds will dictate how the market behaves, and that a small number of passive investors (e.g. index funds) can simply go along for the ride. The large majority active traders are the dog; the minority passive investors are the tail. The dog does what it wants. The tail only follows.
If dogs don’t do it for you, I like the boat analogy. Think of actively managed funds and active traders as large cruise liners and passive investors as a small canoe. The cruise liner picks its course. The canoe ropes onto the cruise liner and gets a free ride. The cruise liner doesn’t notice the small canoe’s drag whatsoever; its course is unaffected. This big-small relationship is the original assumption behind passive investing. Market behavior is dictated by the active majority, and the passive minority gets a free ride.
However, asserts Green, we now live in a paradigm where active and passive investing are too close in size. Therefore, the fundamental assumption no longer rings true.
Millions of Average Janes and Joes–individual investors–are using index funds to invest huge portions of their income and savings. After all, that’s how many 401(k)s and their non-American equivalents are set up. Green points out how recent U.S. legislation changes are pushing 401(k)s and passive investing even further into the mainstream.
Passive investing is no longer the “small tail.” It’s no longer the canoe. It’s now a fairly large boat, and the active management cruise liner is impacted by towing such a large passive boat.
The past 30 years have seen index funds grow and grow. Index fund inflows are the “single largest transactors in the market by far” Therefore, by definition, they are not passive. Index funds have to be influencing the market. What might this influence look like?

Passive investing influences the market

Let’s go back to our S&P 500 index fund from before. The S&P 500 went up ~30% in 2019. Where does this gain come from?
Some of it probably comes from fundamental growth in the S&P companies. They’re doing better! Active investors respond by saying, “If the company is better, then these stocks are now worth more!”
Alternatively, what happens when millions of individual investors put their retirement savings into S&P 500 index funds? It’s simple supply and demand. Joe and Jane are increasing the demand for S&P stocks, therefore the price will increase.
When Joe and Jane were the “small canoe,” their demand didn’t affect the market. But these passive investors are no longer “just along for the ride.” They are actively impacting the ride. Last year’s 30% price increase is not based only on fundamental growth. Instead, the Average Janes and Joes are artificially increasing the price of the S&P 500 via their demand for index funds.

The effects of “index inclusion”

What about “Company 501;” that is, the first company not in the S&P 500? Well, it does not receive the benefits of being a part of the S&P 500 index funds. It does not receive the demand that occurs from inclusion in that index fund, and this exclusion affects Company 501’s price.
Mike Green says that historical data clearly shows this growing impact on asset values–it’s called “index inclusion.” This is true for all sorts of index funds. They include some stocks, exclude others, and there’s a recognizable delineation between those included and excluded.
Green says there’s a “distinct and permanent shift in the valuation and price levels associated with these securities” when they are included or ejected from an index. Companies inside of indices are receiving more attention than they fundamentally deserve. Companies outside of indices, therefore, are getting the cold shoulder. This lack of true valuation is one of the formative factors of a bubble.

“Fire!” in a theater

In the past 40 years, passive investing has done nothing but grow. But eventually, that growth will end. Individual investors will retire. Withdrawals will take place. What happens when you take the money out?
At that point, Green states that the artificial inflation of index funds will cease, and quickly turn south. As more retail investors sell, prices will drop. When investors see prices dropping, they’ll get scared and sell more. The vicious cycle will continue–sell, drop, sell more, drop more–into a index fund crash. It’ll be an old-fashioned bank run.
Or, as Nicholas Nassim Taleb has written, “the market is like a large movie theater with a small door.” If everyone is looking to get out, the only way to do so is to offer the doorman a better price than the other people. Prices will plummet. Pop goes the index fund bubble.

Is it the British accent?

Raoul Pal looks the part, sounds the part, and produces his videos while sitting in front of monitors chock full of financial data. My bulls*** detector is whirring to life, but something about that accent is just so factual.
Pal’s argument is that baby boomers–through no fault of their own–have been dumping too much money into passive funds (pensions, 401(k)’s, etc). When they start selling en masse–which will happen soon!–then pop goes the index fund bubble.
There are 76 million baby boomers in the U.S., and their average age is now 65 years old. The wave of retirees is about to crest. And when they start to pull money out for retirement, we will see the large theatesmall door issue. Prices will plummet.
But, says Pal, index funds aren’t the only issue. Boomers will also face issues trying to sell their houses. They’ll have issues trying to sell their material goods. Baby Boomers were such prolific consumers that the economy will be overwrought will all their stuff, and prices everywhere will fall. Growth will cease as markets are flooded with goods. A vicious cycle will ensue.
And then “the doom loop of corporate debt will get ignited.” Oh no, not a doom loop! In short, says Pal, corporations have recently gotten into the habit of:

Borrowing money (this is the corporate debt)
Buying shares of their own stock—a.k.a “stock buy backs”
…which drives the price of their stock higher (P.S. this is an artificial price increase)
…which makes the company appear more valuable, and usually lets the biggest stockholders (e.g. the executives) get extra rich

And Pal’s right. Corporations have been gluttons for their own stocks in recent years. Just read about Apple’s buyback tactics.
Eventually, these corporations will have to pay back their debts. And their artificial valuations will come back to Earth. Stock prices will plummet. Indexes and pension funds will plummet. And Baby Boomers’ selling will cause further pricing drops.
And thus, claims Pal, the third Baby Boomer crash will occur. And every good story has the symmetry of threes.

Problems with Pal

My core issue with Pal is that he’s as much a story teller as he is fact teller. And therefore, it’s hard to tell if he’s selling olive oil or snake oil.
For example, this sounds impressive: “The baby boomers accumulated the greatest concentration of wealth the world has ever seen. And they’ll destroy it too.” Whoa! Rise and fall. The double-edged sword. The boomer giveth, and the boomer taketh away.
Pal provides facts to back up his claims. But most of his facts are arguable at best.
The 2000 Dot Com bubble? It happened because Boomers flooded the stock market with their investments, says Pal. And then “everything got dashed on the rocks, as those markets collapsed.”
The Baby Boomers–then age 45 on average–turned to real estate, says Pal. Can you guess what happened next? The 2008 Subprime Mortgage and Financial Crisis! Baby Boomers are so many in number, says Pal, that their sum-total behavior can’t help but create bubbles.
After 2000 and 2008, the Boomers were worried about their retirement savings, goes Pal’s argument. So now they’ve got to take risk, and they were forced to do so in the stock market. Well, what’s the easiest way to invest in stocks? Through passive investing! And as we’ve now learned twice–according the Pal–where the Boomer money goes, a bubble will soon follow.
It’s a nice story. It has symmetry. It has foreshadowing. It’s narrated with a silky British accent.
But that doesn’t mean it has an iota of truth. Euphoric day-trading of “.com” companies led to the 2000 Dot Com bubble. Passive investing is the exact opposite of that kind of behavior! Perhaps the money is coming from some of the same people, but that’s not evidence for the existence of an index fund bubble. Pal is grasping at straws.

Michael Burry: Big Short to Big Bubble

Michael Burry is an investor and hedge fund manager who correctly foresaw the 2008 financial crisis, and managed to make a boat-load of money for himself and his customers through his correct prediction. If you’ve seen the movie The Big Short, Michael Burry is played by Christian Bale.
Burry’s argument for an index fund bubble is a less scary than Green’s, and certainly less apocalyptic than Pal’s.
Burry’s claim is that indexing has caused an artificial bubble that’s inflating stocks inside the index, and thus leaving stocks outside the index ripe for the picking. It’s the “index inclusion” argument again.
But where Green sees a dangerous bubble, Burry sees more of an opportunity. Ready for another metaphor?
Imagine a pair of identical twin basketball all-stars. Everything about them is the same, including their skills. Except that one twin plays college ball for Duke–he’s always on TV–while the other plays for Harvard–a good academic school, but not a basketball Mecca.
The average basketball fan would be biased towards the Duke player. He’s on a better team, he gets more media coverage, and has more post-season success. The average fan would certainly believe that the Duke twin has better long-term prospects, and therefore would deserve a bigger professional contract.
But since I built this strawman hypothetical, you and I know the truth! The two twins have the same exact skill set. Therefore, signing the Harvard twin at his lower price would actually be quite the financially efficient move.
Michael Burry’s claim is that this is what’s happening with passive investing. Near-identical companies are being over- or under-valued due to their index inclusion or exclusion.
Stocks that are inside of index funds are like the Duke twin–they are being over-valued simply because of where they are. While stocks not in the index are like Harvard twin–they are under-valued, and therefore should be targeted by smart people looking to make more money.
In my opinion, this is less of a “index fund bubble” and more of an “anti-index opportunity.”
Burry is simply saying, “There’s an inefficiency here, I’ve discovered it, and I plan on making money off it. P.S.–come invest with me so we can both make money together.”
Good work, Mike! Go exploit that inefficiency!

Price Discovery is becoming fragile

Burry’s second claim is that price discovery is becoming fragile. “Price discovery” is a fancy term for “buyers and sellers determining a price where they’re willing to make a deal.”
Think about Craigslist. Someone wants $200 for a used snowblower. Snow?! Yes, in Rochester it helps to have a snowblower. So, you take a look at the snowblower and counteroffer $150. The owner haggles back to $175…and you have a deal! That’s price discovery.
Typically, stock market price discovery involves many buyers and sellers conducting detailed analyses of a company’s holdings and profits and cash flows–all of the fundamental business metrics.
But passive investing doesn’t care about those fundamental metrics. Instead, passive investing simply follows the leader. It assumes that others in the market have already done the fundamental research, and that the current price of a stock is “right.”
It’s a little bit like saying, “The last Craigslist used snowblower went for $200, so I’ll buy the next one for $200 sight unseen.” Are you sure you want to trust the last buyer and seller? What if they were dopes? Don’t you want to look at the snowblower and make a decision for yourself?
Since passive investing doesn’t rely on price discovery, Burry argues that prices are now dangerously skewed from what traditional price discovery would suggest. This cannot go on forever, and eventually the prices will snap back to where they fundamentally belong.
Or, you could say, the index fund bubble will pop. This, Burry says, is very similar to how housing and CDO pricing behavior malfunctioned before the 2008 crisis. It will be a painful, painful snap.

Part II – The other side: Index funds are fine

While I appreciate the logic behind Misters Green and Burry and Pal, there’s plenty of good money still betting on index funds’ future success. Let’s start with Ben Carlson. . Ben is financial analyst, author and blogger (nice!), and podcast host. I’m a big fan of A Wealth of Common Sense (the blog) and Animal Spirits (the podcast). Thanks for sharing all the good work, Ben.
Anyway, what does Ben have to say about the index fund bubble and passive investing?

The tail is not wagging the dog.

First, let’s get back to dogs and tails and boats. Carlson writes, “Index funds hold less than 15% of shares in public companies.” While this is a growing number–it was 3.3% in 2002 and 6.8% in 2009–passive investing is neither a majority nor plurality.
If we combine all exchange traded funds and all mutual funds, that percentage rises to about 35% ownership of all shares. That means that active investors–the dog–own at least 65% of the equity market, and therefore are still wagging the tail. All is well in the dog/boat metaphor universe, says Carlson.

Bias! Bias! Read all about it!

Another of Carlson’s arguments is that active investing, by nature, is biased against passive investing. Passive is stealing active’s business share, and now active is biting back.
Passive investing shadows what the active investors are doing. But rather than spending money on research and trades, passive investing keeps expenses–and fees–to a minimum. Passive has all the profits of active investing, but none of the costs: ipso facto, passive investing is better. And the active investors don’t like it! The “index fund bubble” is their propaganda technique.
Besides, let’s consider any and all claims that passive investing is doing something “wrong.” Logically speaking, anything that passive investing is “doing wrong” first has to be done by active investors.
You can’t blame your shadow for flipping you the middle finger–the shadow only copies the source. Similarly, passive investing only copies what active investors are doing. It’s a simple argument in logic.

The price discovery argument

Price discovery is a cop-out, says Carlson. There is way more trading occurring today than most times in the stock market’s history. In the book Index Revolution, author Charley Ellis writes that about 95% of all trades today are done by active managers–there’s plenty of opportunity for price discovery. It’s all about trading volume.
This means that the prices aren’t skewed. The prices aren’t a stretched rubber band, ready to snap back. There’s no index fund bubble, waiting to pop. Instead, the active investors are setting the prices and price discovery is healthy.

So what’s Michael Burry worried about?

Besides, Carlson says, when else in life do we expect individuals to actively partake in price discovery? Do you haggle with the grocery cashier about the cost of oranges? No! All over our economy, prices are set and individual consumers simply choose to buy, or not. They don’t barter or bargain.
I’m not sure I agree with Ben’s point here. It’s true: we don’t haggle at grocery stores. Instead we’re presented with Hobson’s choice–we either take it, or leave it. If you don’t want to pay $12 for a bag of oranges, you don’t have to.
But are people thinking about Hobson’s choice when they passively invest in index funds? I don’t think so. I think a lot of people are “blindly” putting their bi-weekly 401(k) contributions into index funds, regardless of the price. There’s not much “take it, or leave it” going on. It’s just “take it.”
My conclusion: index investors might be blindly buying in, but they’re still buying at a price that was intelligently discovered through the fundamental analyses of active investors.

Ben Felix from YouTube

Ben Felix is a portfolio manager at PWL Capital, and popular creator of YouTube financial/investment videos.
I really like one of Felix’s foundational arguments against the idea of the bubble. That idea is: assets under management do not set prices; instead, trading sets prices.
So Green and Burry should not be asking, “How much money is in indexes?” Instead, the question should be, “How much trading is done by indexing?” This means that the size of the boats doesn’t matter. In fact, it means the boat metaphor doesn’t really make sense.
So let’s relate it back to the quote from Charley Ellis: 95% of all trades today are done by active managers. That means that price discovery is dominated by active trading. And it means that there shouldn’t be any bubble driven by price discovery.
Blackrock, another investment management firm, estimates that for every $1 of passive trades, there are $22 of active trades. Again, this points to the same conclusion: there is no issue with price discovery.

Some ideas from the academics

Felix quotes a couple serious economics papers–one by Fama/French, another from Palia/Sokolinksi.
Fama & French came to the conclusion that it doesn’t take much active investing to create an efficient (i.e. non-bubble) market. Passive investing, they say, is pushing bad active managers out of the market. And those who remain? Only the skilled active managers. It’s survival of the fittest. Culling the weak should only make the market more efficient. More efficient = better price discovery = no bubble.
Palia and Sokolinski have a really interesting theory. In brief, they claim that index funds drive down the cost of short selling, which makes short selling more efficient, and that leads to better price discovery.
They start with the simple truth that index funds hold onto lots of stocks. And since the supply of stocks is high, index funds can easily lend out those stocks to short sellers (people betting that a stock will go down). The short seller pays the index fund a small fee, which gets passed onto the passive investor in the form of low costs.
However, since there are so many index funds out there, the short sellers have many different options of where they borrow stocks from. With high supply comes low prices. They can find their short sources very cheaply. This makes the cost of shorting go down.
And thus, conclude Palia and Sokolinski, passive investing is creating a more efficient market for short sellers, and a more efficient market leads to better price discovery.

Part III – Home-grown arguments and takeaways

Now that you’ve heard the smart people talk, let me bless you with my pro-index ideas.
First, index investing is self-corrective.
To wit, let’s take another look at Michael Burry’s argument: “passive investing has an inefficiency in undervaluing non-indexed companies, and I plan on taking advantage of that.”
If Burry is correct, then more active managers will follow his lead and make their money. And right behind them will be their shadow a.k.a. passive investing. The market is a self-correcting system, where money flows towards the best values. Passive investing simply follows that flow of money.
If passive gets too influential, then the smart active managers will exploit the problem. Inefficiencies will balance themselves out in the long-term. And passive investing is a long-term technique.
Second, it’s easy to avoid the pitfalls of index inclusion.
Index funds don’t have to exclude stocks. Many investment managers (like Fidelity and Vanguard) offer total market index funds. They include high and mighty S&P companies and all of the “company 501’s” out there that might be excluded from other index funds.
Therefore–if there is an index inclusion bubble–the total market index funds own both sides of that bubble.
A total market fund would only be exposed to a bubble that includes entire asset classes. For example, one could claim that stocks in their entirety are overvalued, but that commodities are undervalued. Therefore, a total U.S. stock market index fund would still expose you the bad outcomes of bursting bubble!
If this concerns you, then diversify your index investing via a lazy portfolio. There are indexes that track bond markets, international markets, different sized companies, commodities, REITs, etc. You can spread out your investments across multiple asset classes to reduce your risk.

Takeaways

Green and Burry both make good points. Pal tells a nice story. I’m really glad I took some time to understand those ideas. Carlson and Felix support the ideas I’ve always heard: the wisdom of people like Jack Bogle and Burton Malkiel. What actions am I taking after all this conversation?
Reading. Lots more reading. I want to learn more about Mike Green, Michael Burry, and their anti-passive compatriots. After all–they did compel me to type up 4000 words of arguments that go against my investing strategy. But I also want to remind myself of the reasons why I started indexing in the first place: Malkiel, Bogle, and people like Ben Carlson and Ben Felix.
But I will be staying my course, at least for now. I have not been convinced to move away from indexing, or that there’s an index fund bubble. Indexes still float my boat, and I think the bubble argument has more bark than bite. I’m in it for the long run. I do not think hand-picking individual stocks is the way to go.
Source: https://bestinterest.blog/index-fund-bubble/

After a 10-0 night on the sports betting side of windailsports.com one of our subscribers took two $100 dollar bets and turned it into almost 80 grand last night! I asked boss man if I could share the love on reddist so that anyone who wanted could take advantage of the arrival of Mike North, one of the best minds in the sports betting industry and the recent run we have been on and he said to go for it. So here you go ladies and gentlemen.
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Cash with Flash has NBA, NCAAB & NHL Predictions for tonight!!
Glad to see you and we hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.
Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 40-29 for NCAAB, 15-9 in NHL, 53-31-1 in the NBA, and 85-45 for tennis this season.
Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $10,000 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby.
Tuesday was a terrific bounce-back day. We went 3-0 on the day and improved our Win Daily Sports record to 4-4.
Yup, just like that we erased a tough Monday night.
I employ a fixed-unit system of bankroll management. I explain this system and its nuances (along with other systems) in my books but the gist of it goes like this; I play one unit on every contest I have an edge in. No more and no less. I’m able to do this because I have a career winning percentage of 56.6 percent and winning at a 62 percent clip this season.
It’s not the sexiest way of doing things that’s for sure but it does work for me. Let’s see what we have on tap for today!
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NBA 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders
1). New York Knicks +3.7
2). Charlotte Hornets +3.6
3). Chicago Bulls +3.1
4). Utah Jazz +2.7
5). Detroit +2.5
NBA 2020-201 ATS Leaders
1). New York Knicks (13-13) +3.7
2). Charlotte Hornets (14-11-1) +3.6
3). Chicago Bulls (14-10) +3.1
4). Utah Jazz (18-7) +3.1
5). Detroit Pistons (+3)
Wager $10 on DET📷To Beat IND:$22.25Lose by less than 3:$19.09To Lose:$16.83 (13-10-1) +2.5
NBA 2020-2021 Totals Leaders
1). Brooklyn Nets (19-8 over record) +6.0
2). Denver Nuggets (18-6 over record) +5.6
3). Milwaukee Bucks (15-9-1 over record) +4.9
4). Detroit Pistons (14-10) +3.7
5). Chicago Bulls (13-11) +3.3
We have five games on the NBA schedule but Cash with Flash is only interested in a couple of these contests.
Indiana Pacers (-3)
Wager $10 on IND📷To Beat DET:$16.83Win by 3:$19.09To Lose:$22.25 vs Detroit Pistons (+3)
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Normally I would be all over the home underdog and especially so against an Indiana Pacers side on the wrong end of a four-game losing streak. Malcolm Brogdon and Domatas Sabonis have struggled mightily during this losing streak but they play a Pistons team allowing an average of 118 points per game over their past five contests. Detroit is coming off of a huge home victory over a Kevin Durant-less Brooklyn Nets side that ended a four-game losing streak of their own. The Pacers are the better offense and will take this one by four points or more. Take the Indiana Pacers with confidence tonight.
Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5)
Wager $10 on PHI📷To Beat POR:$14.70Win by 5.5:$19.10To Lose:$27.85 vs Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5)Wager $10 on POR📷To Beat PHI:$27.85Lose by less than 5.5:$19.10To Lose:$14.70 (+5.5)
Remember when the 76ers couldn’t win on the road? Those days seem to be over as Philadelphia is 7-5 and enters this matchup riding a two-game winning streak. They also have a red-hot Joel Embiid who’s averaging 32.3 points alongside 10.5 rebounds per game and the Trail Blazers don’t have anyone either living or dead who can stop him. Damian Lillard has been carrying the injury-plagued Trail Blazers but missed the Trail Blazers away victory over Philly one week ago. Ben Simmons also missed that contest and is raring to go but its looks as though Seth Curry will miss this tilt with an ankle injury. Lay the Points and take Philadelphia to cover the spread tonight.
NCAAB 2020-2021 Money Line Leaders
1). Colgate +10.2
2). Morehead State +8.3
3). Wright State +7.9
4). UC Riverside +7.2
5). Prairie View +6.8
NCAAB 2020-2021 ATS Leaders
1). Colgate (5-3) +10.2
2). Morehead State (14-5) +8.3
3). Wright State (12-7) +7.9
4). UC Riverside (8-3-1) +7.2
5). Praire View (10-1) +6.8
NCAAB 2020-2021 Totals Leaders
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1). American University (3-1 over) +13.9
2). Long Beach State (6-2 over) +11.4
3). St Francis NY (7-4 over) +10.7
4). Cal Baptist (9-3 over) +9.6
5). Southern Utah (8-3) +8.2
There are several NCAAB games tonight and Cash with Flash likes one contest very much. You must stay out ahead of injuries plus coronavirus concerns and the best website I know for this would be Newsday.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State (138.5 Total)
A majority of these two sides’ contests have ended under the total and I suspect that this one won’t be that much different when they meet tonight. Three of their last five meetings have ended under the total and these are two fairly good defenses. Georgia State has one of the best turnover percentages in the college game but Southern is twelfth in the nation at causing turnovers. Neither side shoots the ball well from long range and both squads have pedestrian offensive rebound percentages. Take the UNDER in this one!
NHL Top Five Winning Teams
We’re not talking about how many games a team wins but how much money you would win had you wagered $100 on each of the following teams’ total games this season.
1). Toronto Maple Leafs $470
2). Carolina Hurricanes (-1.5)
Wager $10 on CAR📷To Beat DAL:$17.90Win by 1.5:$28.48To Lose:$20.89 $264
3). Tampa Bay Lightning (-1.5)Wager $10 on TAM📷To Beat FLA:$16.25Win by 1.5:$25.54To Lose:$23.82 $247
4). Boston BruinsWager $10 on BOS📷To Beat NYR:$15.44To Lose:$25.02 $246
5). Vegas Golden Knights (-1.5)Wager $10 on LAS📷To Beat ANA:$14.40Win by 1.5:$17.74To Lose:$29.15 $189
NHL Top Five Losing Teams
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1). Ottawa Senators (+1.5)
Wager $10 on OTT📷To Beat WIN:$27.60Lose by less than 1.5:$17.51To Lose:$14.85 -$765
2). Detroit Red Wings (+1.5)Wager $10 on DET📷To Beat NAS:$25.27Lose by less than 1.5:$16.44To Lose:$15.69 -$523
3). New York RangersWager $10 on NYR📷To Beat BOS:$25.02To Lose:$15.44 -$427
4). Vancouver Canucks (+1)Wager $10 on VAN📷To Beat CAL:$21.89Lose by less than 1:$23.56To Lose:$17.19 -$453
5). Nashville Predators (-1.5)Wager $10 on NAS📷To Beat DET:$15.69Win by 1.5:$16.44To Lose:$25.27 -$419
Carolina Hurricanes vs Dallas Stars (+1.5)
Wager $10 on DAL📷To Beat CAR:$20.89Lose by less than 1.5:$28.48To Lose:$17.90 (O/U 5.5 Goals)
I can see grabbing Carolina at -121 tonight but I don’t think that would be the best bet for this contest. Carolina has a terrific offense and scores an average of 3.14 goals per game and the Stars average 3.33 goals scored per game but has lit the lamp just five times over their last three matchups. James Reimer will likely tend to the twine and he’s allowed 16 goals over his past four starts and Anton Khudobin has allowed 11 goals over the past three starts including seven goals over two consecutive losses to Carolina during that same three-game span. Take the OVER in this game!!

I originally made this post on /financialindependence and was asked to submit it to this sub as well. I hope you guys enjoy.
TL;DR: I was a middle-class suburban bum who didn't know anything about money and my wife came from nothing and her work ethic and ability to organize money led me to pay off my student loans last week
Now to get an idea of both myself and my wife I'll give you a little background. I came from a typical Middle Class, suburban American family. My mom is a nurse and my dad has done everything from own a chair factory to delivering dental supplies, but we always were pretty well off. This is also partly due to my father's family being very wealthy and allowing him to inherit the money to buy his home with zero mortgage. Financially, I was taught little or nothing growing up, everyone is aware of the lack of financial prep in the US school system, and my family treated money as a sort of "dirty" topic. If you did something for free you were "clean" and "noble" if you did things outright for the pay it was "mercenary" and not considered good. When I was told to look for careers both me and my siblings weren't told "make sure you can make a living and take care of yourselves" but "do what you love, the money doesn't matter" and the classic "money doesn't bring happiness". It took me years to learn that a lack of money can certainly bring UNhappiness.
So, as a result, I found myself making a series of financial mistakes my whole life. Everything from not opening a line of credit (I thought I was "beating the dirty bankers") to develop my credit score, to repeatedly overdrawing my checking account to be hit with $500 overage fees AND additional $25 late on paying the overage fees-fees (Once I owed up to $2000 without realizing and only by pleading with both the bank to reduce it to $1000 and my mom to pay it off did I escape that fiasco). And I never really learned. After moving out of the house I did get used to checking my checking account to make sure I had enough money to pay various bills and rent, though I do remember forgetting a few times and having my water shut off. Long story short I found myself an adult with no career, $80,000+ in student loan debt, and zero idea of how to progress.
Now my wife's story is about as opposite as you can get. She was born in Thailand. Her mother was from an extremely poor farming family who sometimes had one bowl of rice to share for the whole family for the day. Her dad was a little better off with a more middle class family and worked as an electrician of sorts. My wife's mother was his second marriage after he drove the first wife off and it was an arranged marriage that my wife's mother did not was to do. She has an older half sister from her father's first marriage (who is a mess) and her father did NOT want another girl, he wanted a boy. In fact her nickname to this day is "Bee" stemming from her being "Plan B" or "If it's a boy, his name is A, if it's a girl she's B".
That theme sort of continued while she was young. Her sister was given as much as the family could support, being the oldest, and had all the normal things like schools supplies and even had her university studies paid for by their father (she dropped out). My wife on the other hand had to make due with hand me down clothes that her mom would sew deep hems in the skirts to fit her body which she would eventually let out bit by bit as she grew. When she wanted to go to school her father told her she had to find the money herself because the family couldn't afford it.
Thankfully, her mom (basically to keep her occupied while her mom was at work) had signed her up for every athletics program under the sun from a very young age and thanks to both good academic grades and a talent for basketball she not only achieved scholarships to a college prep school but to one of the most prestigious universities in the country. She just told me to make sure that I mention how her mom had her keep a record of her spending and saving on a piece of paper ever since she got a small allowance as a little girl and learn how to cut out "unnecessary things" (her favorite mantra that I picked up).
While at University my wife had to struggle in the extreme as not only did her family not help with tuition, but food, housing, books, clothes, or anything else was up to her. She had to find a way to make enough money to live and study while competing both for the schools basketball and, occasionally, the schools Judo team, which any student athlete can tell you is already a full time job.
It was hard, very hard. "The lowest point of my life" she says. She made money by doing freelance work as a graphics designer (she majored in Animation and Graphic Design, she always wanted to learn to paint but decided she'd never make money doing that, to this day she's an amazing sketch artist and painter btw). She went for years subsiding on about $40 a month. She couldn't even afford rice to eat and had to buy bulk packs of ramen noodles which she supplemented with discount vegetables to literally not get scurvy. This whole time she watched as her family descended into chaos as her grandfather (on her dad's side) passed away and his children, her aunts and uncles fought like hyenas over an elephants carcass over the inheritance and her sister ended up stealing from her father large sums of money, ran off, got pregnant, abandoned her children and came back to continue a sad decline into drugs and bad life choices.
She graduated eventually and tried to make a living as a graphic artist in Thailand, but her dad had lost his job due to a declining mental state caused by PTSD from several brushes with Thailand's underworld while he was an electrical building inspector. So now, she had to support her father (and as a result her sister) on her own. After two years of trying in Thailand she realized she wouldn't be able to and ended up decided to leave Thailand and become and au pair to support her family. I'd like to add that through my wife I've met a lot of au pairs and their lot is utter garbage and little better than slavery in many situations and while many come from decent backgrounds just trying to make some money while they explore the wider world, most are desperate and trying to find a way to escape the poverty of their homes like my wife.
I met my wife in America. I was working as a fat, more than broke delivery driver and she was a struggling au pair working basically 24/7 (I know it's technically not, but when you live in the home you work it does it really matter if you're on the clock if the baby wakes up crying?) and making $195 a week. She sent back $350 a month to support her family and saved the rest as best she could. I had no idea how much I made or where it went aside from I hadn't had an overcharge fee in a little while.
Eventually after meeting, falling in love, and deciding to get married she eventually quit being an au pair and moved in with my and my family (after I moved back to America I moved in with my parents where I still live today) and the journey of first discovering my financial mess and fixing it began, and oh boy, what I write can only scratch the edge of the weekly "checkups" and arguments and lectures and stress that went into this development, it wasn't easy for either of us. She couldn't believe she'd become partners with such a disorganized mess and for me it proved to be VERY hard to learn to curb your spending when you never thought to before.
Luckily, I had "graduated" from being a delivery driver to working at Solar City. The first step on a long journey that eventually led to me joining the Ironworkers Union. On my development my wife showed me how to keep a physical record of every single penny I spent and earned. I would keep it up for a week, forget and loose the book then she would buy me another one and we began again. I have a closet full of about a dozen checking account books. Then she had me organize my student loans. I had no idea how much my monthly minimums were and was shocked to find out it was almost $700/mo. She taught me what interest was. These were the first steps.
I struggled, I mean really struggled to get the basic concepts of knowing where my money was at all times. Old me thought that was a waste of brain energy and it was a hard mentality to break. I'd say at least a year went by before I really understood how much I made each week/month and what my monthly expenditures were and by then I'd taken my second step in my career as a laborer working for a commercial solar company. Now I was making enough money to start paying off my loans consistently on my own (my mom had been paying part each month) even with my sloppy book keeping. This was the second biggest motivator in my life to get my sh*t together, seeing a light at the end of the tunnel and knowing that, yes I in fact could climb out of my hole myself. This and the other motivation led me to working as much overtime as possible and picking up a second job as a pizza delivery guy Friday-Sunday. I was not working more than I thought was possible (depending on overtime opportunities between 65-85 hours a week).
The main motivation though, was seeing my wife's growth no matter how many hours I worked she always ALWAYS worked more it was inspiring, exhaustin and terrifying at times to see. In my previous comment I said she'd nearly doubled her income a year, and I wasn't joking. After she left being an au pair she had to wait 6 grueling months to get her green card. It nearly drove her insane and she ended up working under the table as a cleaning lady to continue to support her family. She'd clean everything from ritsy homes in Cambdrige and Brookline to the utterly disgusting college kid housing around BC/BU/Harvard areas. She kept a paper record this whole time and is checking it now to see how much she made she made a little over $1000/month.
After she was cleared for work she continued as a cleaning lady but also got a job as a cashier, eventually a waitress at a local Vietnamese restaurant. She stopped being an au pair in January, in June she was making $1000/mo, July $1800, August $2100, September $2700, October $3000. She just read those off (I'm rounding to the nearest $100). A year later she'd left the cleaning job and started working as a waitress at a second restaurant as well as picking up shifts at David's Bridal as a seamstress, eventually maxing out at $4500/mo. In March 2018 she made $5200. This is just from pure willpower and work ethic. After going over the numbers this is where she maxes out for the present but even if it's not doubled (sorry my own exaggeration) since then this, to me, is an outstanding growth.
So watching her fight like that how could I not? I worked my bun off right next to her. She taught me to push like I never pushed before and now that I was putting in that many hours and that much effort I finally not only had the knowledge how to track my money but I had a deep desire to know where every drop of sweat was being saved or spent. I got better at accounting using Mint and my bank's online manager. I followed my 401k growth, I checked how much I was spending on gas, on work clothes, I didn't write it down like she did but I learned to keep track of everything. Nothing motivates someone knowing how much they have like knowing how hard it is to earn.
Eventually I got into the Union after years in construction. With my wife's work ethic driving my I'd garnered a reputation as a motivated and dedicated hand wherever I went. I might not be the best, but you can bet I'd be the first there and the last to leave, very few people out worked me. This reputation eventually got me noticed by a Union member and thanks to years of trying to keep up with my wife I'd grown into a much better person and while it can be very difficult to get into a Union it took one week from my first meeting to being on a jobsite with a Union outfit, riding an elevator up the biggest building I'd ever worked on (50ish stories) and up to a career that could support my own family the rest of my life. All thanks to my wife. After that I'd graduated the whole "watch your money" phase she taught me more, and we learned together. I started paying off my loans early in a focused way, starting with the highest interest first. I opened credit cards and used them both sparingly and paid them off each week to keep my balance low and my credit score high. I started investing in basic stocks to get a feel for the market, putting about 10% of my paycheck in as a learning cost and two years after getting into the ironworkers union I FINALLY paid off the last of my student debt. From $80,000+ to $0 all thanks to my wife's guidance and teachings.
Sorry this is an aside but it's actually funny, compared to any American construction worker I was a hungry tiger who devoured work, and it actually meant I ended up being classified less as "one of the Americans" but was adopted by the other class of hungry-tiger-worker in my industry: the other immigrants. Construction in any state in the US is done by Spanish immigrants, not completely but they are a constant and huge presence on any jobsite. Most I've met work like my wife. Voraciously. They came from harder lives than most can understand (An Elsalvadorian friend of mine, and the best carpenter I've ever seen, tell me how when he was 12 a guerrila army told him he was to fight with them or they'd kill his mom so he did that until a helicopter gunship killed them all so he ran and got a job loading boulders onto trucks). My motto since then has been "Work like an immigrant, get paid like a citizen". That last part is unfortunately since many are illegal they get taken hugely advantage of with no options.
To finish this insanely long tale: After I got in the Union my wife saw how the Union allowed minorities and women a chance to work in the trades and the benefits both in take home pay, and in benefits (Insurance, annuity, pension, vacation pay, free training) and decided she wanted to make the move, too. Ever since she was little she wanted to be like her dad, an electrician, but he told her girls couldn't do it. Now, when the opportunity presented itself she gave it her all, like she always does, and less than a year later she is the top student in her 1st year technician apprentice class and had multiple supers and foremen tell her she'll be a foreman soon, which I never doubted.
EDIT: Holy cows guys, thank you so much for all the love, it really is overwhelming! Bee can't wait to see what the next comment says and is just glowing and I'm practically in tears. Thank you again you're all so kind.

I’ve been doing well with college basketball lately but I’ve been picking big money lines and taking a smaller payout. Soccer has also been going well. The NBA has been too unpredictable. I also don’t know enough about hockey to bet.
So my question is what are your parlays for today and what have you guys found has been hitting?

The NBA Finals are about to start, but there are now 28 teams sitting at home with nothing to do but twiddle their thumbs, watch LeBron, and wait for next season to start.
For their sake, we wanted to look ahead with the next edition of the OFFSEASON BLUEPRINT series. In each, we'll preview some big decisions and make some recommendations for plans of attack along the way. Today, we're looking at the Denver Nuggets.
step one: peaking at the right time
It doesn't take a basketball expert or even an enthusiastic amateur on reddit to know: this Nikola Jokic fella is pretty darn good. He's made two All-NBA teams already, and he's still only 25 years old. By the time the dust settles on his career, he may end up being one of the top 10 international players of all time.
Of course, even great players need some help to reach the promised land. Based on what we've seen this postseason, you have to feel more confident about that aspect as well. PG Jamal Murray had been one of the best players in the playoffs, averaging 26.5 points and hitting 45.3% from three.
Going forward, it'll be interesting to see if Murray can carry that breakout through the regular season. While pundits like Kenny Smith called him a "perennial All-Star," he's never actually made the All-Star team. To be honest, he's never been all that close either. Despite being in the league for 4 seasons now, he's never averaged more than 18.5 points and never averaged more than 4.8 assists. Perhaps this postseason has fueled his confidence and his greenlight to become one of the top scorers in the game.
Again: let's emphasize the perhaps there. I wouldn't necessarily bet on Murray to put up monster raw numbers a la Damian Lillard. For one, he defers a lot to Jokic as a playmaker, so it'd be harder for him to rack up huge assist numbers. Secondly, Murray doesn't get to the line very often -- only 3.1 FTA per game -- which lends itself to more inconsistency night in and night out. Unless he changes that aspect, it'll be hard for him to push past 24 PPG on a regular basis.
In some ways, Jamal Murray is starting to remind me of Kyrie Irving. They're both scoring guards who are among the best "tough shot" makers in the game. Neither one draws a ton of contact or free throw attempts -- which limits their raw totals in the regular season. Still, their games translate well to a playoff setting where you need to be able to break down and score against tougher halfcourt defenses. If Murray can continue that quality, then it won't matter if he's an All-Star or not. Denver has graduated past regular season worries; their focus now is entirely on the playoffs and a championship pursuit.
step two: if need be, overpay for a PF again
When the Denver Nuggets were a young and rising team, they pulled the trigger on a massive contract for PF Paul Millsap (around $30M a year.) It may have been an "overpay," but the timing made sense. The Nuggets had cap space to spend before they had to officially dole out extensions for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. "Use it or lose it." Overall, Millsap may not have been worth $30M on his own, but his defense and professionalism turned out to be a major key to helping the team take the next step. In that sense, it was money well spent.
The Nuggets find themselves in a similar circumstance this offseason -- albeit for different reasons. The extensions for Jokic ($29M) and Murray ($29M) have both kicked in, meaning the Nuggets won't have much cap space for the foreseeable future. Since they're capped out, they can't go out on a spending spree and they can't go looking for big free agents. Instead, they're going to have to look within and toward their own internal free agents.
And as far as their own free agents go, there are more than a few. The biggest name will be Paul Millsap, but the hottest name will be fellow PF Jerami Grant (expected to turn down his $9M player option.) Grant had a great playoff run, hitting open threes and running around like a Tasmanian devil on defense. While he couldn't stop LeBron James, he's the only one on the team who even stood a chance. Losing Grant would be a difficult pill to swallow, especially in an NBA that features superstar forwards like LeBron, Kawhi Leonard, etc. Given their cap situation, there's really no reason to let Grant leave either. Sure, he'll be expensive. Sure, you'll go into the luxury tax. But this is the time to do that -- when your team is on the verge.
The other free agents will be tougher decisions. Millsap would be nice to retain, but only at a reasonable and severely reduced price. Backup center Mason Plumlee got roasted for his bad defense on that one Anthony Davis game winner, but he's still a good rotational player. It'd hurt the depth of the team to lose him. Swingman Torrey Craig is a solid defender and mediocre offensive player, but he's someone that coach Mike Malone trusted for 27 starts this year.
I'd probably rank their importance in that order -- Grant, Millsap, Plumlee, Craig. Retaining all four may be difficult, so the team should treat Jerami Grant as a priority and treat the others as luxury items. In an ideal world, you'd retain Grant and one of the two veterans (Millsap or Plumlee). Personally I don't think rookie Bol Bol is as close to being ready for 20 minutes a night as most of reddit does, so that frontcourt depth shouldn't be ignored. If the team thinks Noah Vonleh (also a FA) can give them 10-15 minutes a night that may be a cheap solution, but he got buried by the Nuggets this year so it's hard to imagine they're big fans.
step three: come to Michael Porter Jr.'s defense
One of the reasons that re-signing Jerami Grant may be a necessity is the concern about Michael Porter Jr.'s defense.
Although MPJ is still only a rookie, it's been a roller coaster career for him already. In high school, he had been seen as a potential top 3 pick -- the next Kevin Durant / Carmelo Anthony scoring machine. Back injuries derailed him in college and in his first season as a pro. Then suddenly, he looked back to normal in the bubble, lighting it up and looking the part of a future All-Star. Back down we go. Before long, teams started to realize and exploit his limitations on defense, relegating him to a bench role again.
Where do we go from here? Up or down? Down or up? It's hard to tell. The offensive talent is undeniable, but the defensive issues are a legitimate issue. I've heard some people dismiss his problems as inexperience, but it may go deeper than that.
Growing up, we tend to hear the old cliche that defense is all about "effort!" As adults, we've learned that's not entirely true. So much of your defensive ability is related to your athletic ability. Your wingspan, your change of direction ability. If you can't pivot your hips, you're going to struggle to read and react. (There's a reason why white dudes tend to be bad defenders, bad dancers, and bad NFL cornerbacks.)
Michael Porter Jr. has the size (6'10" with 7'0" wingspan) to be a good defender, but the hips are the issue for him right now. It may be directly related to the back injuries in the past, but he looks very stiff when he tries to change direction. To be fair, Porter is still working his way back to 100% health. If he can get there, maybe this won't be an issue at all. But if it's something that's going to plague him, then the Nuggets will need to adjust accordingly. They're going to need to pair him with good defenders like Jerami Grant, and they may need to stagger him and Nikola Jokic more than they'd like.
It'd be a shame if Porter can't get back to form on defense, and it'd be a shame if injuries limit him in the future. Clearly, we can see the massive potential he has on the other end. He averaged 20 points and 10 rebounds per 36 minutes this year -- as a rookie. If this is just the beginning for him, then the league's in a lot of trouble. If it's just a mirage and a fleeting moment of health, then the Nuggets will have to work harder to get to the next level.
step four: find the right wings to take flight
As great as Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray may be, they're not LeBron James. They're not Kevin Durant. And unless you have one of those transcendent players, it's difficult to win an NBA title. You basically have to nail every other aspect of the roster. No weak links allowed.
The Denver Nuggets don't have weak links necessarily (their depth is strong overall), but the fence isn't the sturdiest on the block either. Primarily, I'm thinking about the wing position (SGs, SFs, etc.)
This postseason, the Nuggets played without an injured Will Barton, and had Gary Harris returning from injury himself. All in all, it's impressive that they got as far as they did despite not being at full strength. Still, you wonder if the Harris - Barton combo is good enough to get them over the top even when they're healthy.
Gary Harris is the biggest concern right now. A few years ago, he looked like a future stud who justified his high-priced extension. Now...? That contract's looking like an overpay (at $19M + $20M remaining.) Harris has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. Over the last two seasons, he's shot 34% and 33% from three respectively. He hardly ever gets to the line either. That's a bad combination that explains the below-average TS% of 53% and 52% over the last two years. Defensively, Harris has solid fundamentals and effort but he's limited in terms of overall size at 6'4". That's a problem in a league dominated by giant wings.
Perhaps Gary Harris gets fully healthy and gets back to form, but I'm skeptical. "Pretty good" is not good enough. Gary Harris, Will Barton, Torrey Craig -- we need something more. We need something better. If I ran the Nuggets, I'd float Harris and others in trade packages. Harris still has a solid reputation, so there's a chance that you can sell him off on a team that feels like he'll bounce back. I wouldn't treat him as a toxic asset, but I'd look for an upgrade if possible. Harris + the # 22 pick may lend itself to that. If Indiana and Victor Oladipo are heading for divorce, perhaps the Nuggets could swoop in as a landing spot.
Ultimately, Denver may be faced with a choice. Right now, they're good. They're good enough to win a round or two in the playoffs in any given year. But to make the Finals? To win the title? They need another LEAP. And that LEAP may come down to two potential lanes. Do you trust that Michael Porter Jr. will stay healthy, fulfill his destiny, and become your third All-Star caliber player? Or do you cash in some of these chips and try to find one on the trade market instead? Gary Harris alone may not get it done, but Gary Harris PLUS Michael Porter is an awfully appealing trade chip. It may be enough to bring in an All-Star like Bradley Beal. At the same time, maybe Porter can be that guy himself. It's hard to tell from the outside, and it may even be hard to tell from the inside. Alas, these are the kinds of million dollar questions that come with the territory of being in contention.
previous offseason blueprints
ATL, BKN, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, HOU, IND, GS, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NYK, ORL, POR, SA, SAC, TOR, UTA

With the draft less than a week away, I wanted to share a recent project on projecting NBA three point percentage using college statistics. While the results are by no means perfect or fully encompassing, I think they provide an interesting non-biased perspective on each prospect’s shooting profile. Results are here, explanation is below!
Questions about a college player translating into an NBA prospect often start and end with that player’s ability to shoot at the NBA level. Some players pan out as shooters in the NBA despite a lack of a college shooting resume, while others light up from beyond the three point line in college but struggle to shoot in the NBA. Donovan Mitchell shot only 32.9% from three in college, but has proceeded to shoot 35.5% from three in the NBA despite a farther line and more difficult shots. Jayson Tatum shot only 34.2% from three in college but has showed elite shooting ability in the NBA at 40.1% from three. Malik Monk shot 39.7% from three in college on a lot of attempts, but has only shot 32.2% in the NBA.
This question isn’t just whether fringe shooters will be able to shoot at the NBA level, but also how we can identify which elite college shooters will be elite NBA shooters. While Duncan Robinson was certainly a very good college shooter, few argued that he would be the top 10 NBA shooter that he is today. Someone like Ian Clark on the other hand, had very impressive college shooting stats but has not shot all that well in the NBA. Shooting should be something that is possible to predict at least somewhat accurately using college statistics. Unlike other aspects of basketball, shooting is one thing that stays fairly similar between college and the NBA. While the three point line does extend, the step up from college to NBA shooting is not nearly as big as the step up in things such as athleticism, rim protection or perimeter defense.
Major draft questions this year hinge on shooting ability for a number of highly regarded prospects. Can Isaac Okoro develop a shot to complement his defensive and passing ability? Will Tyrese Haliburton’s elite shooting percentages hold up despite his form? Can Onyeka Okongwu move his shooting range out to the three point line?
As an NBA draft fanatic, I’ve always been excited by the possibility of projecting NBA shooting using college stats. Despite the potential uses of a three point percentage predictor, there is little public data about projecting college shooting to the NBA. Other articles about this topic have used limited variables and have mainly compared the importance of basic statistics such as college three point percentage, college three point attempts, and college free throw percentage. There doesn’t seem to be a public attempt to predict NBA three point percentage using any significant amount of past college data. I collected data from Sports Reference and barttorvik.com using a combination of scraping methods and being sent data (thanks so much to Bart Torvik for sending me a lot of data from his website!).
After all the data was collected (a very painstaking process), I had over 150 columns in RStudio of variables for each NBA player between 2010 and 2019 (as far as the statistics went back). I’m not going to explain much of my process of transforming the data and finding the best possible regression (if you are interested, I have a more “mathy” explanation here), but the end result left me with a weighted least squared regression with 9 variables that proved to be consistently statistically significant after data transformations, and a usable regression equation to predict NBA three point percentage. The weights used in the regression were the z scores of combined NBA and college minutes for each player (meant to give players with a higher sample size more weight in the model). The adjusted R-Squared value for the regression was 0.4704 and the scaled average residual was 0.0355. This average residual value means that the model was on average predictive of a players NBA three point percentage within 4 percentage points. Because the finding of this regression was done with a “prediction” mindset rather than an “inference” mindset, not much can be inferred about the impact of each individual variable on the ending three point percentage prediction. However, I’m confident that the regression has useful predictive value.
The 9 statistically significant variables are listed below:

Years played in college (min. 20% of team’s minutes for year to count)
Age in June of draft year
College far two FG percentage (basically mid range FG%, from Barttorvik.com)
College three point attempts
College free throw percentage
Bayesian college three point percentage (a modified version of college three point percentage)
College assisted three percentage (percentage of college threes that were assisted)
College dunks made (surprising, but was consistently statistically significant, possibly a representation of a player’s liking of jump shots vs. points near the rim)
College decimal min % (percentage of team’s minutes played while in college)

Only seasons with at least 20% of a team’s total minutes played were counted (i.e. 8 minutes per game and playing every game of the season would qualify).
The full results can be seen here (sorted by rank, sorted by height, sorted by age,). The list includes every player on the top 100 draft boards of ESPN and nbadraft.net (I might have missed someone though!)
Some Thoughts on The Results
Top 5 Most Underrated Shooters
Markus Howard (47.58%)
Howard is not just number 1 in the rankings, but is significantly ahead of everyone else. Howard has an historic shooting profile, especially for someone so young (he is a full year or more younger than many of the other seniors in the draft). While his size will certainly be an issue in the NBA, Howard is one of the most sure bet shooters in draft history.
Justinian Jessup (43.85%)
In the search for the next Duncan Robinson, Jessup might be the most appealing of any 2020 option. Jessup is 6-7 and can shoot the lights out of the ball. He could be the type of player to slip on draft night but make his name as an undrafted role player in the years to come.
Desmond Bane (41.52%)
3 and D is one of the most common phrases that you will hear in NBA team building, and Bane is arguably the best mix of the two in the draft. He combines size and defensive versatility with a fantastic shooting profile that could allow him to become an elite NBA role player.
Killian Tillie (40.96%)
Tillie has struggled with injuries over the past few years, but he could be the best bet to find a stretch 4 in this draft. Not only can he shoot, but Tillie also moves very well for his size and has defensive potential in the NBA.
Patrick Williams (34.62%)
While 34.62% might not seem that high, it’s number 1 among all freshman in this model. Williams may not shoot that well in his first few years in the league, but there are a lot of indicators that his shot will develop eventually, which pairs well with his small ball 4 skillset. Williams’s ability to switch onto multiple positions is especially valuable in the modern NBA.
Top 5 Most Overrated Shooters
Saddiq Bey (34.17%)
Bey is thought of by many to be an elite shooting prospect, but the model isn’t that high on his shooting potential. Personally, Williams and Bane seem like much better bets to be 3 and D role players at the next level.
Devon Dotson (32.63%)
While Dotson starred for Kansas last year, he struggled to shoot consistently throughout his time at Kansas. He definitely has the skillset to run an NBA offense, but will he be able to stay in an NBA rotation if his shooting doesn’t pan out?
Anthony Edwards (29.91%)
Edwards is considered to be one of the top candidates for the first pick in this year’s draft, largely due to his top tier athleticism. However, his three point projection is very concerning considering his love of off-the-dribble jump shots. Edwards has bust potential unless he starts replacing some of these contested jump shots with drives to the rim.
Obi Toppin (28.21%)
Toppin stretched it out to the three point line during his time in college, but the model is not high at all on his chances of continuing that in the NBA. A big concern is that Toppin is already 22 despite only playing 2 years in college and therefore seems unlikely to improve his shot all that much. He might end up putting up stats in the NBA due to a lot of shots near the rim, but a PF without a shot or much defensive versatility is not a great fit in the modern NBA.
Isaac Okoro (27.26%)
Okoro is known for his defense and ball handling, so this projection shouldn’t be a surprise to many. Still though, his projection as one of the worst shooters in the draft is definitely a concern for his NBA prospects. At least he is young and has a long time to improve his skillset.
To be fully transparent, one of the biggest limitations of this model is my limited knowledge as a college Economics major. Much of the statistical knowledge behind this project was learned through the internet, and I do not profess to be an expert on the methods of Bayesian statistics or machine learning data transformations that were used.
One of the most noticeable problems with this model is that it outputs a predicted career three point percentage rather than a player’s peak three point percentage. For this reason, a lot of the younger players in the model may seem underrated. 19 or 20 year old players very rarely shoot well in their early years in the NBA. Therefore, poor percentages in the early years of players who enter the NBA at a young age cause their career percentages to suffer. This led to players such as Tyrell Terry or Nico Mannion having quite muted NBA projections. That’s why looking at their projection along with age or year in college for context is probably the best way to view this data.
The model also does not account well for shot difficulty. If a player’s shot difficulty changes drastically from college to the NBA, then their three point percentage projection will likely be off.
Basically, the model should be taken as a less of a literal projection of a player’s NBA three point percentage, and more of a ranking of shooting indicators relative to a player’s age.
Comment if you want to see the model’s projection for a prospect who is not on the list! I’ll try to reply as quickly as I can run their stats through.

TLDR:
I made a model using college stats to project NBA three point shooting. The results are here!

First, I'm sorry this is so long. Second - please be nice. We have debt, bad habits, and are Catholic. So if any of those things are going to get you spun up, just skip this one.
Section One: Assets and Debt Use this section to explain your current financial picture at large.
Everything here is joint – “M” and I have been married 22 years and we’ve had “smashed money” that whole time (and really for about a year before that).
Retirement Balance (and how you got there): Approximately $500,000 in a variety of IRAs and current 401(k)s.
Equity if you're a homeowner (and how much you put down and how you accumulated that payment). Bought our house in 2001 for $239,000 with 20% down (some aggressive saving and a gift from each of our parents). We refinanced, took some cash out for some home repairs, and reduced it to a 15-year loan in 2009 – our current equity would be about $195,000, but similar homes in the neighborhood are listed at $475,000-$525,000, so if we ever sell, we’re probably coming out ahead.
Savings account balance: $6,000
Checking account balance: $6,500
Credit card debt (and how you accumulated it): I hope you’re sitting down. Approximately $40,000. Yes, you read that right. How we accumulated it? The house is 90 years old and constantly falling apart, so we’ve had to charge things that needed to be done (some we wanted to have done, but some – like the time our oil burner stopped working in December – were needs). We had two dogs with numerous medical issues – I don’t want to calculate what they cost me, but they each had surgeries that were about $5,000 (each), plus other chronic and acute medical issues. And yes…for a while, we were doing and buying things we probably shouldn’t have (not bad things, just vacations, clothes, and non-essential home improvements) So…when I’m 100 and greeting people at Wal-Mart, I’ll at least have some good memories. That said, I can’t tell you the last time I used credit – if we can’t afford to pay cash, we don’t do it (and I say that fully realizing most people would feel that I shouldn’t do anything).
Student loan debt (for what degree): None – my husband went to the military and then to work after high school and I went back to community college later in life and paid as I went.
Anything else that's applicable to you: If my ex-husband dies before me, I’ll have about $6,000 in a money market that he must have forgotten about. When we divorced, he was supposed to liquidate all those accounts and give me half. He was an accountant and a SOB, so I never knew exactly what we had, but what I got seemed accurate (it paid for furniture, my wedding to M and part of this house, so I was OK with it). Lo and behold, a couple years ago, I found out we still have this money market account in both names. I tried to find him so we could liquidate/split it, but he’s missing. I get the statements here now, and the good part is he’s older than me, so I’m holding out hope he predeceases me and it will be mine.
Section Two: Income
Income Progression: I've been working in my field for a year and a half, my starting salary was $100,000. I did a salary story with the entire progression – long story short, I’ve made more, and I’ve made less, but this is probably about the average of the last five years.
My husband has been at his job for 14 years – he started there making around $75,000 and now makes $110,000. They usually give him a $10,000 bonus at the end of the year, but are always crying poverty if people ask for a raise. Prior to that, he worked for a company that paid very well and he had a 15-minute commute, but he got out one step ahead of their bankruptcy.
Main Job Monthly Take Home:
Me: $5,152
J: $6,230
Side Gig Monthly Take Home:
M is paid $1,300/month by our parish for serving as Youth Minister.
Any Other Monthly Income: $16.00
I get quarterly dividends on stock I was given when I was born (I may not have been born into money, but apparently my grandparents had friends who thought this was a good baby gift). The last few were around $50, so I divided by 3.
Section Three: Expenses
Rent / Mortgage / HOA fees (please specify how you split it if living with a partner): $3,043, which includes the property taxes and homeowner's insurance
Savings contribution: $500/month without fail (my bank transfers $100 if we get over $500 in, so once each paycheck and once when we put the church check in). More if I feel the savings needs a boost.
Debt payments:

Credit card #1: $350/month (this is about twice the minimum)
Credit card #2: $375/month (minimum payment)
Credit card #3: $200/month (minimum payment - this is the next one getting whacked when #1 is paid off)

Donations: OK – anyone who isn’t screaming because I owe $40K is going to start now.

$300/month to the church in the “collection basket” (it’s electronic, but same diff)
$100/month to the church building fund (last year of a five-year pledge, thankfully – if I hadn’t promised to pay it, I wouldn’t)
$25/month to Habitat for Humanity
$20/month to Citymeals on Wheels
~$50/month to various other charities
~$100/month in food for the church food drive (we don’t have a food pantry, but collect food every week and anyone from the neighborhood can come take some. The rest is donated to several food pantries and soup kitchens in the Diocese).
As far as volunteer hours, M and I both teach Religious Ed. I'm on the Parish Council and co-social media manager of the parish (basically, I schedule Facebook). M also videotapes the 5:00 Mass and the children’s worship message each week and uploads it to the parish YouTube channel.

Electric: $110
Gas (stove/hot water): $50
Oil: $250/month in the winter
Wifi/Cable: $179
Cellphone: $252 for both of us (I get mine expensed except $26 for my phone payment)
Subscriptions:

$.99/month for iCloud Storage
$545/month for life insurance for both of us, plus $202 quarterly for the life insurance policies we took out when we bought the house
$17/month for NY Times online
$10.86/month for Ring video doorbell
$12.99/month for Netflix
$9.99/month for Spotify (I think M gets reimbursed for this, because he has it for Youth Ministry)
$119/year for Amazon Prime (yes, I know, I am an awful person)

Car payment / insurance: $295/month for my car (leased). My husband is driving a 10-year old car that is paid off. $128/month for auto insurance
Lawn care: $50/month
Commuting: Now that we’re in COVID times, I’ve been buying a 10-trip off peak railroad ticket every five days for $78.75. Pre-COVID, M and I each bought a monthly ticket for $270, and I took the subway most days for an additional $100/month. I fill up the car about once a month (~$36) and M fills his about every other week (~$70/month)
Saturday, September 26, 2020
7:45 am: Up and at ‘em! I get up, get coffee, check emails and social media and start the day.
8:00 am: M leaves the house for a long list of errands, the payment for which will be shown below. I put in a load of laundry and discover…a leak! There is a large pipe between our powder room sink (which I used when I woke up) and the outside world that runs through the basement and is apparently leaking. Yay whee. If you get one thing from this diary, let it be these words of wisdom – don’t buy an old house! No beautiful feature is worth the aggravation! I get the water (I hope it’s water) cleaned up, a load of laundry in, take a shower, do some picking up around the house, get dressed in a Rangers t-shirt and cut off distressed jeans, do my makeup (Olay microsculpting serum and Miracle Blur over the bottom of my face, pink, gray, and violet eyeshadows, a swipe of foundation under my eyes, black eyeliner, black mascara, and dark brown eye pencil. This is standard everyday makeup for me and will be repeated each day. I put volumizing mousse in my hair and blow dry it (also routine).
In the meantime, M gets a haircut ($30 including tip), sets up the video equipment at church, goes to CVS for passport photos that he needs for an application ($18.87), and goes to the religious goods store for a book of the Liturgy of the Hours ($42.31). He is starting formation for the diaconate (the process of becoming a Deacon in the Catholic Church) today, and they said he’ll need that book. He also needs the photos for his application, and he stops at the bank for two money orders – one to send with the background check request and one for his high school transcript ($26). On the way home, he picks up breakfast (brunch?) for us – classic New York BEC, SPK (bacon, egg, and cheese on a roll with salt, pepper and ketchup) for him and egg whites, turkey and swiss cheese on a whole wheat wrap for me ($10.78), as well as cigs for him and vape cartridges for me ($36).
The washing machine isn’t causing any additional leakage, so I move the wash to the dryer and start moving the winter clothes from the portable closet in front of the leaking pipe upstairs (they’re not wet, but we’re going to have to move the closet when the plumber comes).
After eating the egg sandwiches, we get changed for deacon class – I look like a good church lady in black slacks, a black and white flowered shirt with a black tank underneath, and black sandals with a chunky 2.5” heel. M goes with the classic golf shirt and dockers. While we’re getting changed, he mentions he needs new underwear, so I whip out the phone and order him some ($18.64).
6:30 pm: Home from deacon class and Mass and the groceries show up! I ordered them yesterday, but I don’t think the charge went through till today, so here goes. Asparagus, broccoli, celery, bananas, cucumber, lime, grape tomatoes, peaches, carrots, potatoes, spinach, lettuce, zucchini, frozen burgers, ground turkey, chicken breasts, whole chicken, fried chicken and a pot pie for J’s lunches, yogurt, sugar free pumpkin spice creamer (YES! I’ve been looking for it for weeks!), milk, heavy cream, OJ, k-cups, frozen green beans, cauliflower rice, stuffing mix, microwave rice, cake mix (the good ones were on sale), chicken broth, potato chips, and trash bags. Spent $154.95 including delivery, saved $14.50 (very low for me), tipped the delivery guy $10.
7:00 pm: After putting away all that food, what do we do? If you guessed order dinner, you’d be right! I don’t cook on Saturday unless we’re having company. We order from a new taco place – three each and “Mexican wings”. The wings were meh, but the tacos ranged from good to outstanding. $53.78 including tip. After dinner, M starts post-production of the Mass video and I do some laundry, watch the NASCAR race and the hockey game, and play games on my iPad. Remember, you’ll be old someday too!
11:00 pm: I go to the basement to pick up laundry and remember I wanted to order a new garden flag (this isn’t as random as it sounds – all my seasonal decorations are stored in the basement). I have had a cart set up for days with two garden flags ($6.99 each) and four magnetic mailbox covers for my parents for Christmas ($11.99 each) – they’ve talked about having a different one for each season, and I saw them when I was looking for a garden flag. Total with tax and free shipping: $61.94. I love Christmas and generally spend way too much on gifts so I’m trying to start shopping before December and at least spread out the pain. We went to a crafts fair a few weeks ago and I picked up a few things and now I’ve got this done – go me!!
12:30 pm: The hockey game is over (2 OT!) and I go to bed. M is napping waiting for his video production to finish.
Daily Total: $463.27
Sunday, September 27
7:00 am: The alarm goes off – ugh. It’s the first day of Religious Ed (virtual, but I have to do a 9:45 zoom with my 4th graders). Coffee, social media, shower, dress, makeup. Put on a black eyelet dress because we’re going back to church today so M can videotape First Communion. Do the usual makeup/hair thing.
10:30 am: My 4th graders are great and we’re ready to roll (M has on a shirt and tie in honor of the First Communion), and we’re off to Mass. Drop off the food I bought for our food pantry last week and help him video. Of course, the kids are adorable!
12:00 noon: We’re starving after church, so we stop at our favorite local pizza place on the way home. Get a variety of slices for $22.62, including a tip (we’re getting it to go, but I’m tipping everywhere, because I know restaurants have been hurt badly by the pandemic. These folks are in NYC and still haven’t opened inside dining.)
1:30 pm: Ate, ran more laundry, changed into the jeans I wore yesterday and a Yankees t-shirt and call the nail place. Of all my expenses, nails are probably the most non-negotiable – I’ve been getting my nails done for 40 years, and when I couldn’t do so during the lockdown, I was miserable. They can take me right away, which makes me happy.
3:00 pm: All 20 nails done – gel on the fingers and a regular pedicure with callus removal ($75 plus $15 tip = $90). I went with an autumn theme and got copper on the fingers and bronze toes – the nail polish looked in the jar like it would match the toes, but it doesn’t. Stop at CVS for eye cream (Olay for tired eyes) and mascara (L’Oreal Voluminous) - $27 with coupons. M asked me to pick up cigs on the way home, so I do, as well as vape cartridges, which I don’t technically need yet, but it will save a trip later in the week ($36).
3:30 pm: While at the nail place, I saw that one of our favorite local restaurants had a fire, which consumed an entire block of restaurants and small businesses. The Chamber of Commerce is doing a GoFundMe, and I donate $25 to the cause - $28.75 including the charge. I also notice that the weekly charge for my church donation went through ($75).
11:30 pm: Took a quick nap (the highlight of my week every week), put some fall decorations out, had our family Zoom call, laundry, got the end of the winter clothes moved upstairs, had dinner (roast chicken, stuffing, mashed potatoes, and roasted asparagus), made an apple crisp (I’m not a huge dessert person but M is and I like making desserts, so it works), watched baseball, football, the NASCAR race, and basketball, and took a quick shower. Bring a Light & Fit Toasted Coconut Vanilla yogurt (the best!) to bed, finish my book (“Next Stop, Chancey”) and find the next in the series on my iPad – I’ve read them all before, but I’m in the mood for something cozy, especially after reading about the Current Occupant’s taxes – ugh!) , and turn off the lights around midnight.
Daily Total: $279.37
Monday, September 28
6:45 am: I work from home M/W/F and so I can sleep in. Relatively speaking, anyway. Get dressed in a sleeveless top and shorts (despite the fall decorations, fall nails, and roast chicken/apple crisp, it feels rather summery out there), do makeup, have some coffee and scroll through emails/socials, move yet another load of laundry (I’m trying to get it all done before the plumber comes), find the number for the plumber and give it to M to call, get the trash out, and boil some eggs for breakfast this week. I’m sitting in front of the computer by 8:15, which is ok (technically, my hours are 8:30-5:30 – it’s usually more like 8:30-6:00, and on WFH days, starting at 7:30 is not unheard of). M drops off the car at the shop – I think I forgot to mention this, but he mentioned yesterday that when he was driving around Saturday, there was a grinding noise when he backed up. More joy to come, I’m sure.
9:45 am: I hear M on the phone with the garage – apparently, they can get a used part and do the job for $450. Not great, but it’s better than it might have been! He works from home basically every day except when he has to see customers, but thankfully we’re separated enough that we can hear each other but it’s not intrusive.
10:30 am: Between cursing at people on the phone, M calls the plumber and I grab some cheese and more coffee! I’d tell you about my job, but honestly, it’s not worth talking about. Basically, I go to meetings, take notes on meetings, and send follow-ups (I do other things, but that’s most of it). When I get off my 11:00 am meeting, I’ll find out when the plumber is coming. You guys are getting a much more exciting week than I expected!
12:30 pm: What a miserable day – it seems like everyone is annoyed! Take a break to eat a slice of leftover pizza and a Diet Coke (M finishes some rotisserie chicken from last week). He says the plumber may come today to look at the situation but can’t do the work till tomorrow.
6:00 pm: Keep my head down and get some work done in the afternoon and knock off for the day. Run downstairs and make dinner – “tacos” with strips of beef grilled with Korean barbecue sauce, shredded cabbage, cheddar cheese, pineapple salsa, cucumber slices, and lime inside warmed tortillas. Delicious, if I say so myself!
7:30 pm: I get on a Zoom faith sharing meeting and M gets on a Zoom religious ed class.
11:59 pm: Contemplated Sunday’s Gospel with my small group, watched Tampa Bay win the Stanley Cup, took a shower and set clothes out for tomorrow, and off to bed. M picked up the car after Religious Ed.
Daily Total: $450.00
Tuesday, September 29
5:45 am: Ugh. Up and out – I’m wearing a green dress with a black jacket and have black slingbacks in my bag. I have to walk 30 short blocks and five long blocks once I get off the train, so I’m traveling light. I used to take the subway to my office, but since COVID, I try to limit that as much as possible.
7:45 am: Off the railroad and walk uptown. I actually don’t mind the walk, because when I WFH, I walk very little – at the beginning of the lockdown, I had a nice walking routine, but lately the work seems to start the minute I wake up, so walking to work takes care of getting in those STEPS! I forgot my boiled eggs and I’m starving, so I end up buying an egg sandwich. $5.43
12:30 pm: Because I only go to the city twice a week and I have to walk uptown with all my work stuff, I don’t bring lunch often (pre-pandemic, I used to bring breakfast and lunch every day, but I also took the subway). Decide to run to Pret and my boss and co-worker both ask me to pick something up. Of course, no one (including me) has anything but a $20, so they both say they’ll get me next time. I get my favorite chicken parm wrap and a Diet Coke. $32
12:45 pm: I look at my personal email and discover that J’s car registration needs to be renewed. Hop on the DMV website and take care of that. $158.50. I also realize I never took out the sausages for tonight’s dinner and call M to ask him to do so. He mentions the plumber has still not shown up.
5:45 pm: Leave a little early to get to the Fed Ex office and make my train home. I’m a little later than I’d like to be and it’s raining, so I get the subway, which is thankfully empty, reasonably clean, and quick. $2.75
7:15 pm: M picks me up at the train station and mentions that he was so busy working that he didn’t take the sausages out. He asks me what I want to eat and we end up at Wendy’s. Cheeseburger, fries, and (surprise, surprise) a Diet Coke. He gets the same thing, but bigger. $19.75
11:30 pm: Avoid the debate by watching the Yankees pound the Indians. Usual routine (plus ironing a shirt for J, because he has to go to a customer tomorrow) and off to sleep. I’m up to Book 3 in the Chancey series, for those keeping score.
Daily Total: $218.43
Wednesday, September 29
5:30 am: Double ugh. Woke up to use the bathroom and couldn’t get back to sleep, so here we are. Get dressed (long-sleeved Yankees t-shirt, straight leg jeans), do the face, have some coffee, and try to avoid the fact that my boss sent me an email at 11:00 pm last night looking for changes to a document, which I said I would do today. Get the trash out, pick up a little around the house, and get to work by 7:00. OH, and despite the lack of plumber and his lack of general motivation, M moved the plastic closet…in front of the washing machine! Glad I bought him underwear, because I won’t be doing laundry any time soon. Now I’m wondering if he looked at the menu (I am an obsessive meal planner and post it on the fridge weekly) and that’s why he didn’t take the sausages out – he’s avoiding zoodles! He can run but he can’t hide – I have zucchini and I’m going to spiralize it sooner or later!
8:00 am: The document my boss needed is out, the agenda for our 9:00 am meeting is done, the morning emails are sorted (for now), and I got a link to our parish survey up on the Facebook page, so I make an egg and cheese on a tortilla and eat at my desk.
12:50 pm: Wednesday is conference call hell – I have recurring calls every Wednesday at 9:00, 10:30, and 11:30, and the added fun today of a 10:00. There’s also a webinar every Wednesday that I try to tune into. Grab some chips and a Diet Coke and go check it out.
2:15 pm: Still no damn plumber, but I’ll let M worry about that when he’s home tomorrow. My garden flags arrived, so that’s good. Hoping to get out and put the pumpkin one out before it gets dark, but the way today is going, that might not actually happen. However, I realize I never put dinner in the crockpot. Luckily, it only takes 3-4 hours on high, so I take care of that. It’s Tuscan Chicken with sun-dried tomatoes and spinach. By 2:30, I’m back at my desk with another Diet Coke and hard at it. Nightmares of rescheduling meetings, missing documents, etc.
6:45 pm: Still at my desk! OK, I took some time to send an email to the parish webmaster about the survey, update this, and read the R29 money diary of the day. But overall, I’ve been working with no apparent end in sight – I could easily be here all night, but I won’t be because (a) I’m falling asleep at my desk and (b) I have a 7:30 Religious Ed teachers meeting. Hopefully I won’t fall asleep during that. Make a list of things for my boss and I to review tomorrow and finish prepping dinner.
7:15 pm: Dinner was delicious – we had the chicken with rice for M and cauliflower rice for me, sautéed broccoli, and a basic salad (bagged spring mix, cherry tomatoes, cucumber). Now off to Zoom!
11:45 pm: The Yankees game is still on, but I’m showered, my clothes are set out for tomorrow, and I’m fading. Turn off the light and hope for a win.
Daily Total: $0.00 (bet you didn’t see that coming!)
Thursday, October 1
5:45 am: You know it…ugh. Get up, coffee, very quick scroll through the Yankees score/e-mail/social media. Get dressed in a black v-neck sweater, black and gray plaid skirt, and black jacket (not the same one I wore the other day). Am grateful the skirt fits – I gained some weight and am trying to resist buying clothes. Make sure I have the right shoes in my bag – I’m wearing high-heeled gray suede Mary Janes today.
8:15 am: At my desk and ready to go – I remembered to bring 2 hard-boiled eggs today, which I eat with coffee while looking through emails.
12:30 pm: Call after call after call, but I have a half-hour to eat. Run to the fancy buffet place that just re-opened for 2 meatballs, brussels sprouts, broccoli, salad, and the inevitable Diet Coke ($15.75). Manage to eat before my 1:00 pm call – go me!
3:30 pm: Leave to go to a job site and pick something up that has to be shipped to Italy. Something that's almost as tall as me, but thankfully not heavy. Taxi down there because I’m in a hurry and I can get reimbursed ($14.04, including tip), expensed.
4:00 pm: I get a cab to the Fed Ex office – thankfully the first one I see is a minivan, so I fit in just fine ($12.74, including tip), expensed.
5:30 pm: Well, that was harder than it needed to be – the Fed Ex office I went to didn’t have a box that would fit the item, so they suggested another Fed Ex office about 6 blocks away, so I had to walk through midtown Manhattan carrying an object almost as tall as me (it's 5' long and I'm 5'3" tall) while dodging oblivious people. Thankfully, the other office had my box, and they were super-sweet and helpful, but it took them forever to get it done. Bought the box and bubble wrap, which will be expensed (I brought the Fed Ex label, but I don’t remember the account number) ($43.54). Get a nice early train home, though!
6:45 pm: Wow, we’re eating when I’m usually getting the train! Cheeseburgers, tots (tater for J, cauliflower for me), green beans, and vinegar coleslaw with the end of the shredded cabbage. Get the kitchen cleaned and the dishwasher run and settle in to watch the Jets – I’m not holding out much hope, but you never know!
11:30 pm: I’ve showered, set out clothes for me and M (he’s seeing customers tomorrow), I prepped for Youth Group, which I’m leading because he’ll be working, and the Jets are winning, so I decide it’s time to sleep. Up to Book 5 of the Chancey series. I find series usually go downhill after about the third or fourth book, but I’m not sure what I feel like reading, so here we are. OH, at some point M must have gone to the convenience store, because there are vape cartridges on the table ($36).
Daily Total: $122.07; $70.32 expensed
Friday, October 02, 2020
6:00 am: Wake up, grab coffee, find out the Jets lost after all, do the morning e-mail/social media scroll. Leaving early to deal with that work errand has left me with a ton of stuff to do, so I get dressed (long-sleeved v-neck gray t-shirt, white tank because the v-neck is halfway to my belly button, dark wash skinny jeans), put out the trash, peel two hard-boiled eggs, and head to my desk.
12:30 pm: As always, call after call after call. Plus a bit of aggravation when my boss asks me at 10:30 for an agenda for the 11:00 call, which I sent him at about 7:30, and which he returns at 10:59 with the formatting looking like nothing on earth. Yay whee! And a project was mentioned that he forgot to tell me I’d do. So in case I thought I’d have nothing to do (that never happens on Fridays), that’s not happening. Anyway, between calls, I run downstairs for the lunch of champions – a Hot Pocket and a Diet Coke. Just that kind of day.
6:15 pm: Realize I have to run Youth Group at 7 and I haven’t even done my haimakeup. Get that done, heat up some frozen cauliflower rice/broccoli/cheese combination and add some leftover chicken. With a green salad on the side, surprisingly yummy.
8:15 pm: I am not a good youth leader…couldn’t get anyone talking about the subject of the day, which I thought would be a good one. I did make them laugh a few times, so that’s something.
M is going to have some expenses because he went to see customers today, but I don’t know what they are and his company will reimburse him, so I’m just leaving them out.
Daily Total: $0.00
This is the Week That Was:
Food + Drink: $326.06
Fun / Entertainment: $108 (if people can put drugs in as entertainment, I’m putting our nicotine in)
Home + Health: $61.94
Clothes + Beauty: $165.64
Transport: $638.03 (some of it will be expensed)
Other: $234.47
Lastly, reflect on your diary! How do you feel about your spending? Was this a normal week for you? Has this inspired you to make changes or has it given you a “wow I’m doing pretty good” confidence boost? Is there anything you’re actively working on? No need to answer any or all these questions but just use this space to write any thoughts you have!
This was a fairly normal week except for the car breaking and needing to be registered – we're saving some now that we WFH more because M will not bring food from home, but I used to bring breakfast and lunch at least four days a week. I know we should make changes, but I also know we don’t want to – honestly, if you looked at the way I lived 15 years ago, I’ve made a lot of changes already. We’re working on the credit cards – I’ve gotten rid of several already (paid off, not just moved balances around) and we don’t use them at all anymore (I can honestly say I don’t remember the last thing I charged). The bad news is that M’s car is on its last legs, and so I see car payments in our future. Hopefully, he’ll get something used – we have my car when we want to look good going somewhere (mine isn’t super-fancy, it just wasn’t hit by a bus and full of stuff for his job).
OH, and the plumber still hasn’t shown up! But that will be for next week’s expenses.

Back in 1978, "The Gambler" Kenny Rogers gave all NBA general managers some sage advice. "You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em."
Golden State decision makers Bob Myers and Steve Kerr are clearly fans of Rogers, because they acted quickly and decisively this season. As soon as they saw the writing on the wall that a playoff push wouldn't happen this year, they made sure to rack up as many losses as possible. As a result, they'll enter the offseason with a 15-50 record, in the catbird seat with the # 1 slot in the draft heading into the lottery.
When a strong team winds up with a high pick like this, there's a natural reaction: this is the Spurs and Tim Duncan all over again!"
Realistically speaking, that's not what's going to happen here. After 4 years in college, Tim Duncan came into the NBA as one of the most pro-ready prospects of our lifetime. As a rookie, he averaged 22-12 with 2.5 blocks and earned All-Star status right out of the gate. He even finished 5th in MVP voting (as a rookie!). Golden State shouldn't expect that. More realistically, you're looking at a top pick that could be an "average" player as a rookie, and hopefully work their way to All-Star status in year 3 or 4.
The question for Golden State is: can they afford to wait that long? Steph Curry is 32. Klay Thompson is 30 and coming off a serious injury. Draymond Green is 30 and perhaps on a decline already.
Given that, the Warriors have a choice to make. Should they utilize this top 5 pick as a way to supplement their playoff roster now, with the expectation that the prospect could develop into their next franchise player down the road? Or should they cash in their draft assets for a "win now" approach? In order to answer that question, let's take a look at more of the specifics.

What kind of package can they offer?

There's no way the Golden State Warriors will trade Steph Curry or Klay Thompson, especially given how well their skill sets should age over time. In theory, they could debate trading Draymond Green (still owed 4 more years) for younger legs, but I imagine he's too important to the franchise from a culture and historical standpoint.
Other than that...? All bets are off.
As we peek through the Warriors' cupboard for potential assets, here's what we find:
THE LOTTERY PICK. Currently slated at # 1, there's only a 14% chance it stays there. That pick could land anywhere from 1-5, with 3 or 4 being the most likely outcome. While this isn't a very strong draft, there's inherent value to a top 5 pick. I would estimate that the top 3 is especially valuable this year, with three potential bluechip prospects emerging from the pack in SG Anthony Edwards (Georgia), C James Wiseman (Memphis), and PG LaMelo Ball (facebook).
Minnesota's 2021 R1 pick. This had been included in the D'Angelo Russell deal. The pick is top 3 protected, but could still be a valuable asset. Under Ryan Saunders, the Timberwolves have gone 36-70 overall. With Karl-Anthony Towns and a full season of D'Angelo Russell (not to mention another top 5 pick), the Wolves may get closer to .500 range, but there's also a good chance the pick lands in the top 10 regardless.
Andrew Wiggins. Sadly, Young Mr. Wiggins would be used mostly as contract filler at this stage. He's not a bad player, but he happens to be overpaid on his current contract. He'll get $29.5M next season, $31.5M the following year, and $33.5M in the final year. He'll need to take a massive step up in efficiency to be worth that type of money.
Eric Paschall. The forward from Villanova had a solid rookie year, averaging 14.6 points and 4.6 rebounds. Realistically, there may not be a huge amount of upside left in the tank for the 23 year old, but the price makes him appealing. He's only due $1.5M next season and $1.8M the following year.
Kevon Looney. The 2019-20 campaign was a lost season for Looney due to injury, but he's still a potential asset on his current contract ($4.8M + $5.2M player option.) When last healthy in 2018-19, he averaged about 12-10 per 36 minutes of action. He's one of the few "middle class" contracts on the books, so he's going to be a common throw-in to trades.
Damion Lee. Steph Curry's brother-in-law is a personal favorite of mine. He's worked his way up through the G-League and 10-day contracts and proven to be a legitimate rotational player. The Warriors locked him up on a team-friendly contract ($1.7M + $1.9M) that makes him a positive asset as well.
Marquese Chriss. Amazingly, mega "bust" Marquese Chriss flashed some improved play for the Warriors last year. Teams will still be wary of trusting him, but his salary ($1.8M) makes him a decent throw-in and flier.
Alen Smailagic. The 20-year-old Serbian only played 139 total minutes for the big league club this year, but did pretty well (15.2 PPG in 25.9 minutes) in the G-League. He's a decent flier of a prospect who at the very least can be an extra contract ($1.5M) to throw into a deal.
other picks. The Warriors also own the # 48 and # 52 picks in this year's draft, and could throw in future R1 picks of their own as well.
If we throw in ALL of these players (hard to do with roster constraints), we're talking about a salary package of about $40M. More likely, you can make anywhere from $30-35M work presuming you include Andrew Wiggins as a major component of the trade.
Overall, I'd say the Warriors have three levels of trade packages to offer.
THE GOLD PACKAGE: Would be this year's lottery pick + Wiggins (for contract purposes) + a solid young player like Pascall
THE SILVER PACKAGE: Minnesota's pick next year + Wiggins (for contract purposes).
THE BROWN/TURD PACKAGE: Wiggins + minor picks and assets (but no high picks.) With this package, the Warriors would be looking to acquire other "toxic" assets more than anything else.

Potential deals for the THE GOLD PACKAGE (Wiggins + this year's lottery pick)

Bradley Beal (WAS) ($29M + $34.5M + $37M player option)
Look, I don't want to do this any more than you do, but the United States Congress just passed legislation (Provision BB-3) that requires every single trade post to mention Bradley Beal.
For this to actually happen, a number of events would have to fall in line. The first is that Beal formally demands a trade, forcing Washington's hand. His recent extension makes that unlikely, but not unprecedented given today's NBA climate. Secondly, the Warriors would have to grab a top 3 pick -- likely # 1 or # 2. If they do that, then they would have a legitimate offer to make the Wizards for Beal: that top pick + Wiggins + maybe Eric Pascall as an additional piece. They could even throw in a future R1 pick to sweeten the pot if need be.
You may question whether another shooting guard (emphasis on shooting) would even fit on Golden State, but we shouldn't overthink this one. Shooting is like peanut butter -- it goes with everything. Moreover, Klay Thompson could easily slide out to SF if need be. The defense would take a hit, but the offensive firepower would be devastating enough to make up for it.
Myles Turner (IND) ($18M + $18M + $18M) + $10M in trade filler
If the Warriors' pick lands in the 4-5 range, they may have to set their sights lower in trade talks, and look towards near All-Stars like Myles Turner instead.
The Indiana Pacers went into this season with an unconventional two-big lineup, and it actually worked pretty well overall. That said, they've been playing without Domatas Sabonis in the bubble, and it's given scorers like T.J. Warren more room to operate. Looking ahead, perhaps the team decides they need to break up the big guys in order to maximize their spacing and spark their offense (ranked 18th pre-bubble.) And hey, maybe they decide they don't want to pay Victor Oladipo (a FA next summer) big money and lock into a core that may top out as a 4-5 seed no matter what. Acquiring a young starter like Andrew Wiggins and a top 5 pick would give them some more options and potential upside.
From the Warriors' perspective, Myles Turner (or Sabonis) would give them a very good center that can play without the confines of their offense. Turner is also particularly stout on defense, and would pair with Draymond Green for a formidable duo inside. Originally, I had listed Jeremy Lamb ($10M + $10M) as the trade filler to make it work, but his ACL injury complicates that math. Presumably, the Warriors would like some healthy bodies to help a team that would be dangerously thin. They'd likely prefer Doug McDermott ($7.5M), but may have to settle for lesser white dudes like T.J. McConnell ($3.5M) and T.J. Leaf ($4.5M) instead.

Potential deals for the THE SILVER PACKAGE (Wiggins + MIN 2021 pick)

Blake Griffin (DET) ($37M + $39M player option)
Blake Griffin has been in the NBA for 10+ years now, but he's still one of the more misunderstood players in the league. He still has the rep as an athlete/dunker, despite the fact that he's a highly skilled ball-handler and passer as well. When last healthy in 2018-19, he averaged 24-7-5 and helped push the Pistons into the playoffs. Griffin's (offensive) potential on this Warriors team would be terrifying.
From Detroit's perspective, this would represent a reset and rebuild. They'd hand the reins of the PF spot from Griffin (31 years old) to Christian Wood (24) and go with a younger approach. Andrew Wiggins may never be the All-Star we hoped, but he still fits that timeline at 25 years old, and has proven to be more durable than Griffin (who isn't?).
With this "silver package," the Pistons would also get that Minnesota draft pick to help their rebuild. There's some uncertainty to that pick, so they may prefer some type of pick swap this season instead. For example, let's say Golden State lands at # 2, and Detroit comes in at # 4. The two teams may negotiate some deal that would allow the Pistons to jump up to 2 and grab their preferred prospect.
Aaron Gordon (ORL) ($18M + $16M) + Terrence Ross ($13.5M + $12.5M + $11.5M)
After six seasons in the league, it may be time to give up on the idea that Aaron Gordon will develop into a go-to scorer. Instead, he may be best served as a 3rd or 4th starter who's going to be a movable piece on defense and an energy scorer on offense. That doesn't sound like what the doctor ordered in Orlando (with Jon Isaac already there), but it could fit well in Golden State. Gordon and Draymond Green would be a "small" PF-C combination, but it's a mighty switchable tandem. Terrence Ross would be included for salary and depth, although Orlando may try to push for Al-Farouq Aminu instead.
Why would Orlando be interested in Andrew Wiggins? They wouldn't, necessarily, but this package would also offer them that extra Minnesota draft pick. Moreover, it would help clear some logjam in their frontcourt. Aside from Jon Isaac, they also have Nikola Vucevic, Mo Bamba, and this past year's rookie Chuma Okeke. Personally, I'm excited to see what Okeke can offer when healthy next year.

Potential deals for the THE BROWN/TURD PACKAGE (Wiggins + minor picks and assets)

Kevin Love (CLE) ($31M + $31M + $29M)
Can we possibly go full circle here? Andrew Wiggins started his career by being traded for Kevin Love, so it'd be fitting for the two to swap places once again.
From the Cavs' perspective, this move would be all about a rebuild. Kevin Love (31 years old, turning 32 in September) never felt like a great fit for their very young team. While Wiggins isn't an ideal building block, he's younger and easier to slide into a lineup at the wing. They'd also be getting off a contract that's naturally risky given Love's age and injury history.
The Warriors had resisted adding Kevin Love before (for Klay Thompson), but his "fit" would be interesting right now. Offensively, his ability to rebound and stretch the court would make their lineup even more potent. Defensively, your hope is that Draymond Green could cover for any potential weakness he may have. Love is also a good team-first player who shouldn't have any problem fitting in and chasing another ring.
Al Horford (PHI) ($27.5M + $27M + $26.5M)
Another skilled big man in his 30s, Al Horford could be an option if the Warriors want to make a quick push to win now at the expense of their future. Horford is past his prime, but he's still a heady player who would fit into the offensive system and culture well.
That said, Horford carries sizable risk to him given the length of his contract. He recently turned 34, so he'll be paid $20M+ into his age 35-36 seasons. It's almost guaranteed to be an albatross contract by the end, but perhaps the Warriors can talk themselves into it if they believe their window is only 1-2 more years anyway.
For the Sixers, Andrew Wiggins isn't ideal either (as a mediocre shooter), but he'd at least offer them more depth at the wing. Paying a big man like Al Horford to go along with Joel Embiid never made a ton of sense in the first place.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA) ($24M)
The San Antonio Spurs haven't embraced a full-on rebuild yet, but they're verging on that territory. That'd be especially easy at center, where Jakob Poeltl is more than ready to man 25-30 minutes. Given that, LaMarcus Aldridge would be an easy piece to push aside. Would the Spurs want a player like Andrew Wiggins back in return? Probably not. Still, they may have the faith that their player development system can get Wiggins to tap into his full potential.
From the Warriors' perspective, this would be another push to "win now." Despite being 35 years old, Aldridge can still be an offensive weapon, as illustrated by his 18.9 points per game this season. In some ways, he could be a bootleg version of what Kevin Durant gave the Warriors -- bailing out their offense in half-court possessions when needed. Defensively, he should be able to play alongside Draymond Green as well.
While LaMarcus Aldridge may not sound like a needle mover at this stage, this is a good time to remind the reader that these latter packages don't include those valuable draft picks.
Julius Randle (NY) ($19M + $20M) + SG Wayne Ellington ($8M)
You're not going to find more polarizing players than Julius Randle. The raw stats suggest he's a star (he neared 20-10 again with averages of 19.5 and 9.7 this season.) The advanced stats suggest he's a net negative. Still, you'd like his chances of success playing with this Golden State offense. Randle is an underrated ball-mover himself, so he may fit in well with their lineup. For his part, Wayne Ellington would be a contract filler and a potential depth play.
Would the Knicks want Andrew Wiggins? Eh. He's probably a little better than Julius Randle, but he's about the same age (both 25) and would be on a more expensive, longer-term deal. Their decision here may come down to the draft. If they have a chance to take another big (be it James Wiseman or Onyeka Okongwu) they may want to jettison Julius Randle sooner than later to clear room.
Kyle Anderson (MEM) ($9.5M + $10M) + Gorgui Dieng ($17M)
This would certainly be the lowest profile trade option, and it would essentially be the Warriors' way of admitting that they never wanted Andrew Wiggins in the first place. I like the idea of "Slo-Mo" Kyle Anderson on the Warriors given his basketball IQ, while Gorgui Dieng may be good enough to give them 20 minutes a night. Still, the only reason the Warriors would make a trade like this would be if they viewed Wiggins as a toxic/negative asset.
From the Grizzlies' perspective, this deal would represent some risk as well. This is a young and talented team that doesn't necessarily need more help on the wing. They have a full plate already with Dillon Brooks, Justice Winslow, Grayson Allen, Josh Jackson, etc. Still, it's never easy for a market like Memphis to draw in "big names," so perhaps they view Wiggins as that type of star material.

Last offseason I delved into who were the top 5 players at each position in Indianapolis (not Baltimore) Colts history. I made a list for each position group which I'll add as links at the end of this article. Each offseason I'll try to update the lists that I feel need to change. As I mentioned last year this list is purely my opinion as a die hard fan since the early Manning days, and if you think I have no clue what I'm talking about, please feel free to let me know.
Fun fact, out of the 26 QBs to start a game for the Indy Colts there are only 8 players that have a winning record. Three of them are Colts legends Josh Freeman, Gary Hogeboom, and Craig Erickson.

5. Jacoby Brissett (2020 #4)

https://preview.redd.it/xf2z4mv04pc61.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c2d53490adf64d76d126573c9418ba29524cd0f

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
2017-	11-19	0-0	59.5	6,059	31	13	6.5	84.2

How He Got Here

The Colts had their franchise QB in Andrew Luck, but leading up to the 2017 season it was revealed during the preseason Luck had a shoulder injury which would eventually lead to him missing the entire 2017 season. This left the Colts scrambling as they knew QB Scott Tolzien was not the answer at QB, so 8 days before the start of the season the new GM Chris Ballard traded 1st round bust Phillip Dorsett for 3rd string QB for the Patriots Jacoby Brissett. Brissett had looked at least competent spot starting for the suspended Tom Brady and hurt Jimmy Garoppolo in 2016, so he was the best option the Colts had available so close to the beginning of the season.

Colts Career

Bringing in a new QB for a team 8 days before the start of the season and asking him to play is like asking a train engineer to launch a rocket to the moon, so Tolzien started week 1 for Colts. He continued to not impress going into week 2, and was replaced for Brissett. Brissett was an improvement, but it was clear he was overwhelmed by the change of scenery and the rest of the Colts roster and staff was not talented enough to make up for it. He finished with competent numbers: 3,098 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 58.8% completion rate, 6.6 Y/A, but was merely a game manager for a bad team as the Colts finished 4-12.
Andrew Luck was ready to return in 2018 and the Colts were willing to give Brissett the benefit of the doubt and kept him on as the backup. The Colts saw a major resurgence with Luck and an incredible draft and free agent class by Chris Ballard, leading to their first playoff appearance since 2015, eventually losing to the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs. The Colts were looking to improve going into 2019, but a now too familiar announcement led up to the season when it was revealed a calf injury was going to cause Andrew Luck to retire 2 weeks before the start of the regular season. The spotlight was once again shown on Jacoby Brissett, who was asked to take over Luck's team. Fortunately this time Brissett was able to get all the first team reps in the preseason leading up to week 1 and was much more familiar with the system.
That familiarity paid off as Brissett led the Colts to a 5-2 start, including wins over playoff teams like the Texans and Titans along with the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Brissett was not putting up All-Pro numbers, but had clearly improved from 2017 and was still not making game losing mistakes. Through week 9 he had 190 YPG, 11 TDs, and 6 INTs, and and the eye test had shown he was a good leader and could occasionally make big plays when needed. However, after a knee sprain in week 10 he was clearly not the same player. His injury either hampered his physical abilities or his confidence but his poor play for the rest of the season allowed the Colts to fall to 7-9, including an embarrassing 34-7 loss to the Saints that I made the trip over to New Orleans for and watched as Brissett sailed the ball over every receiver's head. Brissett was the backup to Philip Rivers in 2020, occasionally coming in for QB draw plays, and while he is still beloved in the locker room, he will likely be moving on via free agency to a team that wants to give him more opportunities to play. The consensus among Colts fans though is that we would love to keep him around not only because he's a solid backup, but because of his leadership and cultural impact.

My Favorite Highlight

https://youtu.be/Q1bFNE0CGXY?t=287

Legacy

I believe I'm with the majority of Colts fans in that when I see Jacoby Brissett I see somewhat of a tragic figure. He got thrown to the wolves in 2017 and did the best he could, but was basically set up to fail. It's honestly not too much of a stretch to say his play through week 9 of 2019 was the best QB play by an Indy Colts QB not named Manning, Luck, or Harbaugh. You could tell he was well-liked by both fans and teammates, especially through the first half of 2019, but his limitations as a player were clear. Colts fans have been spoiled in the 21st century by 2 all-time great QBs, so any deviation from that, especially when it's not by a QB we drafted #1 overall, will be seen as a major failure. I think people came down a little too hard on Jacoby by the end of 2019, and that he's still a solid pro capable of being the QB on a winning team in the right situation. However, he showed in the 2nd half of 2019 that situation is probably not in Indy going forward. He is still beloved in the locker room and by fans as of 2020, as he was the Colts' Man of the Year award nominee.

4. Philip Rivers (2020 Not Listed)

https://preview.redd.it/t0jfknq14pc61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31b6e8ea65de03d01fef3acab1f80efb269bf4b5

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
2020	11-5	0-1	68	4169	24	11	7.7	97.0

How He Got Here

The Colts were still searching for answers at the QB position after the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck and the uneven play of Jacoby Brissett in the 2019 season. The Colts roster was too solid to tank for a high pick, so they likely needed to search for a QB either via trade or free agency. After 16 years with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, multiple Pro Bowls, multiple playoff runs, and 224 straight starts, Philip Rivers had a down year with the Chargers going 5-11, so they decided to let him go. Rivers thought he still had something left in the tank, so he went with the relatively known option of hooking up with his former OC (Frank Reich) and QB Coach (Nick Sirianni) in Indy in a tumultuous offseason for a pretty solid $25 million, 1-year deal.

Colts Career

Rivers got off to a rocky start in 2020, going 3-2 with 4 TDs and 5 INTs. Many fans were worried we were getting the washed up looking 2019 Phil Rivers and were stuck in another year of mediocracy. Fortunately by leading a furious comeback against Cincinnati in Week 6, Rivers finally started to click with the offense. Bolstered by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, Rivers looked a lot more like the 2018 Pro Bowler than the 2019 player nearly out of the league. Unfortunately, in the 2020 signature win against the Green Bay Packers, Rivers sustained a toe injury that would remove whatever small amount of mobility he had left. However, if there's one thing Philip Rivers doesn't do, it's miss football games. That dude is a nearly literal iron man, and continued his NFL starting streak of 240 games (Tied for 3rd best all-time) for all 16 games of the 2020 season. Rivers provided a steady hand and worked well within the offense to help guide the Colts to the playoffs via a 2020 playoff first, a #7 Wild Card spot. Rivers and the Colts played well against a white hot Buffalo Bills team, but it wasn't enough to overcome what turned out to be a legit Super Bowl contender. Rivers, content with his pile of accolades and children, decided to retire from the NFL (with the potential rehab from his toe injury likely playing a large role in that decision).

My Favorite Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDMr58USLww
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRvwhyAmLIs
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nu6A9inxiUE

Legacy

Many people were skeptical of paying a seemingly washed-up QB that much money, even if it was a one-year deal. However, Colts fans all needed to remember to trust the binder™. Slightly older Colts fans may not have liked Rivers much for his constant antagonism and knocking the Colts out of the playoffs in the 2007 and 2008 seasons, but we quickly learned to love his quirky nature once he was on our team. Philip Rivers on the Colts will likely be a fun trivia question as the years go by, as Rivers will always be remembered as a Charger first, but Philip Rivers' Colts year was a great swan song for a Hall of Fame level career.

3. Jim Harbaugh

https://preview.redd.it/byasecl24pc61.jpg?width=1910&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=452b00c5721b46d1a1132e2cc095d3d049448dfd

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
1994-97	20-26	2-2	60.7	8,705	49	26	7.1	86.6

How He Got Here

The Colts had come out of the Eric Dickerson/Jeff George era looking like an absolute dumpster fire. The Colts had been in Indy for 10 years and Indy was still very much a basketball town. The only signature player the Indy Colts had was Eric Dickerson, and he had a very sour exit in 1992 after 2 bad years. The Indianapolis Colts were still in the woods, searching for the player that could give their franchise hope that they would be treated as a legitimate threat in the NFL and generate significant interest from the fanbase. That hope came from an unlikely source in Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh had led the Chicago Bears to 2 playoff appearances in the late Mike Ditka-era, but his play had fallen off and by 1994 he looked somewhat washed. The desperate Colts made a surprisingly wise decision in not drafting QBs Heath Schuler or Trent Dilfer. Instead they drafted future Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to replace Eric Dickerson (this is the "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?" draft) and signing Jim Harbaugh.

Colts Career

Harbaugh didn't come out guns blazing in 1994 as he traded starting duties with Green Bay castoff Don Majkowski. Harbaugh put up decent numbers but the Colts finished 4-5 in games Harbaugh started, 8-8 overall. Harbaugh entered the 1995 season as no sure thing, the Colts actually traded their 1996 first round pick for young Tampa QB Craig Erickson in another baffling trade for an unproven QB. Erickson and Harbaugh competed for the starting position in training camp and Erickson was selected as the starter by head coach Ted Marchibroda.
Erickson played poorly the first 2 weeks, being replaced and outplayed by Harbaugh in both games. By week 3 Harbaugh was the full time starter and didn't look back. Harbaugh was showing that he meshed well with new Offensive Coordinator Lindy Infante as Harbaugh put up some of the most efficient passing numbers of any QB in the NFL in 1995: 2,575 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.7% completion rate, and a league leading passer rating of 100.7 (ahead of guys like Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, and Dan Marino). Even more importantly he was a becoming the tough effective leader to energize the entire team, leading the Colts to 4 game winning drives that season, including one over the 1994 Super Bowl champion 49ers. The Colts were just outside of the playoffs going into week 17, but Harbaugh led the Colts to a win over the Drew Bledsoe led Patriots in the RCA Dome to sneak the Colts into the playoffs at 9-7. Harbaugh earned his first Pro Bowl appearance along with NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
The Colts were going into the playoffs as 5.5 point underdogs against the San Diego Chargers, a team they had just lost to in week 16. However, thanks to 3 TDs from Harbaugh and an out-of-nowhere 147 yard, 2 TD performance from rookie FB Zach Crockett, the Colts overcame the odds. They were heading into a gauntlet of Arrowhead stadium against the best defense in the league and a Marcus Allen led 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs. In an ugly game where the wind chill was -15oF, luck worked in the Colts favor. Harbaugh didn't throw well, but picked up several key 1st down with his legs. He had 1 INT and 3 fumbles, but fortunately lost 0. Chiefs QB Steve Bono had 3 INTs and K Lin Elliot went 0/3 on field goals in a season where he made 80%. Colts K Cary Blanchard made 1/3, and that was enough to upset the heavily-favored Chiefs 10-7. Harbaugh's most defining moment as the Colts QB would come in the AFC Championship against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Harbaugh's cinderella story continued on against Bill Cowher and Neil O'Donnell's Steelers. The Colts and Steelers traded scores throughout the game. With 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Harbaugh threw a dime to WR Floyd Turner for a 47 yard touchdown to put the Colts up 16-13. Unfortunately the Colts couldn't run out enough clock on their next drive and the Steelers rushed down the field for the go-ahead score to put them up 20-16. Harbaugh wasn't done yet. With 88 seconds needing 84 yards, Harbaugh willed the Colts down the field to the Steelers' 29-yard line for a hail mary shot with 5 seconds left. Harbaugh tossed up a prayer that was very nearly caught by Colts WR Aaron Bailey, but he couldn't come up with it. The Cinderella story was over, but it was a defining moment for the Colts franchise. The 1995 Colts were within a hair of making the Super Bowl, and that 1995 playoff run led by Harbaugh created a real fanbase for them.
Harbaugh's stats regressed some in 1996, but he still led the Colts to a 9-7 record and the playoffs, this time getting whooped by the Steelers in the wild card. In 1997 his stats improved some but the wheels fell off of the team as they started off 0-10, eventually falling to 3-13. Fortunately their record would net them the #1 pick in the 1998 draft. After it was clear the Colts were using the pick on QB they traded Harbaugh to the Ravens.

My Favorite Highlight

https://youtu.be/FT4vF24WanE?t=155

Legacy

“A lot of people use (the word) ‘culture,’ but the attitude, everybody was team-first, from the front office, together with the coaches, together with the ownership, together with the players, the equipment staff, the training staff, I mean it felt like we were family.” - Jim Harbaugh on 1995
I don't think enough can be said about the effect of Harbaugh and that 1995 team had on the Colts. He gave us our first source of pride in the Colts and set the tone for the franchise to not be the laughingstock of the league. He paved the way for the decades of excellence that came after. Harbaugh will never be a HoF QB, but his effect on the Colts is severely underrated.
For more details on the 1995 Cinderella season, read this IndyStar article: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2016/01/21/1995-indianapolis-colts-jim-harbaugh-aaron-bailey-afc-championship-game-ted-marchibroda/78291676/

2. Andrew Luck

https://preview.redd.it/rcxlvdb34pc61.jpg?width=1800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6d281a8d9618713767fc95b094c4fd098f19e69

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
2012-18	53.33	4-4	60.8	23,671	171	83	7.2	89.5

How He Got Here

After a serious neck injury to franchise stalwart Peyton Manning, the Colts went from perennial playoff contender to nearly winless in 2011. It was unknown if Manning would ever be the same QB again, so the Colts opted to release their most valuable player and use their #1 pick in 2012 on a QB. There was some debate on possibly drafting the Heisman winner out of Baylor, Robert Griffin III, but new GM Ryan Grigson made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Andrew Luck. Son of former Oilers QB Oliver Luck, Andrew Luck blossomed under head coach Jim Harbaugh to revitalize the Stanford football program while also graduating with a bachelor's degree in architectural design. Luck was hailed by nearly every scout as a can't miss prospect, having nearly every physical tool you want from a QB along with a clear handle on the mental and intangible aspects of the game.

Colts Career

Expectations for Luck were high going into 2012, but not so for the team overall. Many experts put the Colts at or near the bottom of all power rankings. Not only had the team lost Peyton Manning that year, but also many key pieces from the Manning era such as Pierre Garçon, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, and Gary Brackett. To make matters worse, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia and missed weeks 5-16. However, despite all odds, Luck led the Colts to an 11-5 record. Interim Head Coach Bruce Arians proved to be a diamond in the rough by helping Luck turn a 2-14 team that lost multiple starters into a playoff team. Luck's stats weren't always pretty: 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 54.1% completion rate, and a 76.5 rating, but he could clearly make plays happen with an absurd 7 game winning drives. The miracles came to an end with a shellacking by the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs, but this season proved Luck would be no bust, he was a force to be reckoned with.
Luck continued to grow in 2013 and 2014, improving in every category to crescendo in 2014 with a league-leading 40 TDs, 16 INTs, 61.7% completion rate, and a 96.5 rating. In 2013 he led the Colts to his first playoff victory in spectacular fashion. After being down 38-10 early in the 3rd quarter to the Alex Smith led Chiefs, Luck led a furious and unbelievable comeback 45-44 victory. Any Colts fan could tell you after seeing all the comeback victories Luck had led to never count him out, and he cemented that in this game. In 2014 Luck led the Colts past their old god of Peyton Manning in Denver in the divisional round, but were given a thorough ass-whooping in the AFC Championship by the soon-to-be Super Bowl champions New England Patriots in what is now infamously known as the "Deflategate Game."
Andrew Luck was a very physical player and was known to take many hits, sometimes making spectacular plays through those hits. However, that punishment started to pile up and wasn't helped by GM Ryan Grigson's poor draft classes and inability to build a competent offensive line to block for Luck. This culminated in the injury plagued 2015 and 2016 seasons. Luck only played 7 games in 2015 and severely regressed in every statistical category, clearly hampered by various injuries such as a lacerated kidney. Luck's stats improved in 2016, but the team did not as they finished 8-8, partially due to an astounding 7% sack of Luck. Either some of Luck's good fortune had finally run out or the team and culture built by GM Grigson had completely failed to support their superstar QB. Owner Jim Irsay bet on Luck and fired Grigson after 2016.
Hopes were high heading into 2017, but unfortunately an unknown snowboarding accident aggravated a previous shoulder injury for Luck. News was very slow to come out, but fans were shocked to find out he would likely miss the entire season 8 days before week 1. New GM Chris Ballard made a quick trade for Jacoby Brissett, but fans were worried after 3 years of being hampered by injuries Luck may never be the same player.
In 2018 we believed those doubts were proven wrong. Luck had an incredibly resurgent season, leading the new look Colts back into the playoffs for the first time since 2014 with a 10-6 record. Luck's numbers were back to form: 39 TDs, 15 INTs, and career bests of 67.3% completion rate and 98.7 rating. Fans were pleased to finally see Luck playing behind a solid offensive line that prevented which prevented him from being sacked for 5 weeks and giving him a career low 2.7% sack rate. Luck led the Colts to a Wild Card win over the Deshaun Watson's Texans, but were stopped in the cold in Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs. However, hopes were high leading into 2019 that the structure given by GM Chris Ballard would protect Luck and allow him to lead us to our Super Bowl.
Sadly that did not work out as Luck appeared to have a calf injury leading up to the 2019 season. Fans held out hope he would be ready to go for the start of the season, but after the years of rehabbing Luck had finally had enough. 2 weeks before the season opener during a preseason game against the Chicago Bears it was leaked that Luck planned to retire. Fortunately his backup Jacoby Brissett was put in a better position to take his place as opposed to 2017, but the sudden and unexplained retirement of their franchise QB right before the season led to some fans to boo Luck as he left the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for the last time.

My Favorite Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teNLH0p6WHs
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBHhO2yWRMo
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MJvGs4biAA

Legacy

Andrew Luck will forever be one of the greatest "what if?" stories in American sports history. Unlike many "what if?" stories, we got to see what we could have had with Luck. What the Colts had in Luck from 2012-14 along with 2018 was nothing short of incredible and it was clear he was improving to potentially become one of the greatest QBs in NFL history. Instead he's a tragic story where fans will forever be left to wonder what could have been with Andrew Luck. Would Luck have brought the Colts back to the Super Bowl if he he didn't play the majority of his career under the poor management of GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano? All we do know is that his sack rate under Grigson was 5.5%, and in one year on GM Chris Ballard's team it was 2.7%, coincidentally also one of his best statistical seasons. Peyton Manning's sack rate for his career? Tied for the NFL record with Dan Marino at 3.13%. Maybe if Luck had been better protected and coached better to avoid hits he could have made it up there with Manning, but as fans he'll forever be a "what if?" Luck seems like a smart and content man who's just starting a family, so I doubt he will ever return for any team. Even if he did we'll forever be robbed of what the best version of Andrew Luck could have been. However, in his short time here, he delivered enough incredible moments to give us hope and make us love the team. I, along with hopefully many other fans, will forever love Andrew Luck for his time with the Colts and am grateful for a helluva run.

1.Peyton Manning

https://preview.redd.it/9e2kmob44pc61.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b6caa22028dfb2dee910a743d6b01c101e048cd

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
1998-11	141-67	9-10	64.9	54,828	399	198	7.6	94.9

How He Got Here

The Indianapolis Colts under Jim Harbaugh had finally established themselves as a legitimate team, but the Colts knew Harbaugh wasn't the long-term answer at QB. He was 35 going into the 1998 season and had just led the Colts to a 3-13 season, bad enough for the #1 overall pick. There was some debate about drafting Heisman finalist out of Washington, Ryan Leaf, but new GM Bill Polian made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Peyton Manning. Leaf had some incredible athletic abilities, but there were some doubts raised about his ability to handle the mental aspects of the game. He also basically made the decision for the Colts when he skipped their draft interview, a passive-aggressive declaration he wouldn't play for the Colts. Peyton Manning, son of former Saints QB Archie Manning, was also a Heisman finalist out of Tennessee. No scout doubted Manning's ability to become a franchise QB in the NFL, but some wondered about his potential ceiling due to a complete lack of running ability and some arm strength concerns. However, he was clearly one of the most mature and mentally ready players to ever come out of college for any position.
"I'll leave you with this thought. If you take me, I promise you we will win a championship. If you don't, I promise I'll come back and kick your ass" -Peyton Manning to Colts GM Bill Polian on the day before the 1998 draft

Colts Career

The 1998 Colts were still a pretty bad team overall, and the rookie Manning was not enough to overcome that. He had one of the best statistical rookie seasons ever: 3,739 yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 6.5 Y/A, and a 56.7% completion rate, setting records for yards, TDs, and INTs (yards and TDs are currently held by Andrew Luck and Baker Mayfield respectively). However, the deficiencies of the team and Manning's record number of interceptions helped give the Colts a 3-13 record, including a week 5 win over Ryan Leaf's San Diego Chargers.
Fortunately Manning helped lead one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history in 1999, turning the 3-13 Colts in 1998 into the 13-3 Colts in 1999. People weren't exactly ready to give up on Manning after 1998, but 1999 was critical for showing Manning could improve and be at the helm of a winning team. Partially this was helped by sending Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to St. Louis in exchange for the draft pick to select Hall of Fame RB Edgerrin James, who had a phenomenal rookie year. The Colts ended up losing to the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs, who had just completed the Music City Miracle the week before and would come within an ass hair of winning the Super Bowl against the Greatest Show on Turf St. Louis Rams.
Manning was up and down from 2000 to 2002, still posting good stats but missing the playoffs in 2001 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oSFYxDGKy8 ) and having first round exits in 2000 and 2002. Whispers started turning into legitimate arguments about how Peyton Manning was a good stats, dome team, regular season QB that just didn't have it in the playoffs. In 2003 Manning started his absurd streak of 12+ win seasons (7 years) and picked up his first MVP award, the first (and still only) Indy Colt to win it. He also got his first playoff wins in 2003, but was quickly put to shame in a 4 INT performance in the AFC Championship against the Patriots, now known by Colts fans as "The Ty Law Game."
The 2004 season is well known by Colts fans for cementing Manning among the all time greats. Manning was white hot all year, throwing for 4,557 yards 49 TDs, 10 INTs, and a 121.1 rating while only getting sacked 13 times. The 49 TDs was a record, which has since been broken by Tom Brady and Manning again while a member of the Broncos. Manning won MVP for the 2nd year in a row, but once again disappointed in the playoffs with a 0 TD, 1 INT performance against the Patriots in the divisional round, losing 20-3. Those arguments of Manning's postseason jitters were starting to feel more and more like reality for Colts fans. They knew they had their franchise QB, but his inability to perform in the playoffs continued to be baffling.
2005 was supposed to be the season that changed all that. Manning's numbers came back to earth somewhat, but he still posted a very efficient performance (104.1 rating) for a much improved overall team. GM Bill Polian had proved his days building the "Four Falls over Buffalo" Bills dynasty was no fluke, he now had a team with the #2 scoring offense and the #2 scoring defense. This was the year to break the Manning postseason curse. Unfortunately in one of the most upsetting games of my life, the Colts could not break that curse against the Steelers in the divisional round. Manning played relatively well: 58% completion rate, 290 yards, and 1 TD with no INTs, but watching the game the Colts struggled to maintain momentum and get stops against the rookie Ben Roethlisberger. Despite the inconsistent play, the Colts still had a shot. Steelers HoF RB Jerome Bettis attempted to ice the game with a goal line carry, but fumbled for the first time all year. With the entire Steelers offense stuffing the line, Colts CB Nick Harper was free to pick up the ball with a nearly open field ahead of him. Normally Nick Harper is one of the faster players on the field, however, as every Colts fan knows, Harper had been stabbed in the leg by his wife in a "supposedly accidental" altercation the night before. This possibly allowed the falling down Ben Roethlisberger to catch Harper by his shoe strings, preventing the nearly sure thing TD by Harper to put the Colts ahead. Instead Manning led the Colts into basically chip shot field goal position for one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history (Mike "Idiot Kicker" Vanderjagt) to tie the game. We all know what happened next. It was a shocking loss to say the least, and it was hard to blame it all on Manning, but it still felt like there was some sort of mystical VooDoo curse hanging over Manning and our franchise.
If the Colts couldn't win it all in 2005 it felt like they never would. 2006 wasn't looking like anything special compared to the past few seasons, especially considering the defense regressed from #2 in scoring in 2005 to #23 in 2006. Manning was still putting up great numbers, but those were starting to feel like an exercise in futility. Fortunately the Colts caught fire at the right time, with oft-injured All-Pro Safety Bob Sanders getting healthy towards the end of the season and the trade deadline addition of Buccaneers DT "Booger" McFarland. That momentum pushed them to an AFC Championship, where Manning would match up against the source of his ultimate playoff failures, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Fortunately, this time it was in the RCA Dome, not Foxborogh, MA. Manning and the Colts started off cold, being down 21-3 at one point after a Manning pick-6, but the Colts rallied behind some incredibly orchestrated drives by Manning to finally get the monkey off his back. On a last second drive, Manning drove the Colts down the field to put them ahead 38-34 with 1 minute to go. A Marlin Jackson interception of Tom Brady sealed it, Manning and the Colts were going to the Super Bowl for the first time in Indy history. Manning played well in the Super Bowl, winning the MVP against the league-best Chicago Bears defense.
Manning continued his solid play in 2007 and 2008, including his 3rd MVP in 2008. Both seasons ended with heartbreaking first round playoff exits to the San Diego Chargers, 2008's being the "Sproles and Scifres Game." 2008 also showed the first signs of physical weakness from Manning, having a knee surgery before the season that led to a slow start for the Colts. That was not the case in 2009, as Manning led the Colts to start the season 14-0. In a decision that's still derided today, new head coach Jim Caldwell decided to effectively bench Manning along with many other starters rather than go for the perfect season to prevent any injuries. Many had seen the Patriots in 2007 nearly complete the perfect season, but fall in heartbreaking fashion in the Super Bowl against a less talented Giants team. Caldwell, like many others, decided that any rust from not playing for nearly a month was worth the decreased risk of injury to his stars. That decision nearly backfired in spectacular fashion as the Colts were behind the New York Jets (a team they effectively let into the playoffs by letting them win in week 16) in the AFC Championship game until Manning led a furious comeback. It all ended poorly in the Super Bowl however as Manning threw a pick-6 to Tracy Porter that still haunts my dreams to Tracy Porter, allowing the Colts to lose to Drew Brees and his stupid baby and the New Orleans Saints.
2010 was one of the first signs of weakness from Manning. He had apparently injured his neck on this play in 2006 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gjdmww3vgM ) on a hit that would now be extremely illegal. Manning apparently aggravated that injury in the lead up to the 2010 season, and it showed in the stats as he had how lowest rating since 2002 (91.9). For most other QBs a rating of 91.9 is a pretty solid season but for Manning it was a massive fall. This led to a quick playoff exit to the Jets in the first round. In the lead up to the 2011 season, Manning had several surgeries to relieve the pain in his neck which led to him missing the entire season. It was unknown if he would ever be the same QB again, or even play again. Manning's absence showed how incredibly important he was to the franchise, the only major difference between the rosters in 2010 and 2011 is Manning, yet the Colts went 10-6 in 2010 and 2-14 in 2011. This poor record led to the Colts earning the #1 pick in the 2012 draft, which fueled their decision to release Manning and draft a QB in 2012 (Chandler Harnish...and Andrew Luck).

My Favorite Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DttfyOeU3vw
or
https://youtu.be/al13DoOFp78
or
https://youtu.be/UE4UgMc2QqA?t=581

Legacy

"Fellas, if 18 goes down, we're fucked, and we don't practice fucked." -Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore on why the backup QBs don't get more reps
Nothing to me cements Peyton Manning's role in Indy as much as this quote. Even his first 5 years before he became an all-time great, that was still the best sustained stretch of QB play in Indy Colts history. Once he ascended to another level in 2003, it was clear we needed to put every egg we could find into his basket. Manning was the perfect franchise QB: a steady presence on and off the field, consistent delivery of either incredible numbers or game winning performances (usually both), and he made nearly everyone else on the team a better player. His drive and commitment to team victory made him the guy every franchise needs if they want to field a consistently great team. Peyton had somewhat of an authoritarian leadership style, my way or the highway, but you can do that when you show that you're willing and able to give every ounce of yourself to the team and deliver the kind of results that he can.
I think some people are disappointed in the Manning Era considering how historically great his stats are but he was 1-1 in Super Bowls in 12 years here. Honestly I think that's not too far off for any all-time QB. Drew Brees is 1-0, Brett Favre is 1-1, Aaron Rodgers is 1-0, Fran Tarkenton is 0-3, Jim Kelly is 0-4, Dan Marino is 0-1, all of these guys are all-time great franchise QBs but it's not abnormal for them to only win 1 or lose several. There are some exceptions: Tom Brady (6-3), Joe Montana (4-0), Terry Bradshaw (4-0), and Troy Aikman (3-0), but honestly you could trade any of the former QBs for Terry Bradshaw and they would also probably be 4-0. There's lots of luck in every playing career, and some get luckier than others. The only season I'd say the Colts were "robbed" of a Super Bowl is 2005, otherwise I think Manning's Colts career went about as good as it could have.

2021 Removal: Formerly #5 Jack Trudeau at best was a game manager who handed the ball off to Dickerson and a competent long-term backup. He's not terrible, but wasn't really much more than a placeholder
Honorable Mentions: Matt Hasselbeck (5-3 record, probably our best backup ever) and Dan Orlovsky (just for saving us from a completely defeated season).
Dishonorable Mentions: Jeff George and Kerry Collins (being very bad at QB isn't very uncommon for Indy Colts QBs, but these guys were so bad and toxic they dragged down the abilities of everyone on the team and are actively hated by most fans)
TL;DR:

Jacoby Brissett - Bad situation, flashes of solid play
Philip Rivers - Parachuted in and gave us one solid season
Jim Harbaugh - A short but memorable run
Andrew Luck - Great while it lasted
Peyton Manning - I think he did alright

Other Lists:
Quarterbacks (2020 Edition)
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Offensive Linemen
Defensive Linemen
Linebackers
Defensive Backs
Specialists

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(OC) Indianapolis Colts Top 5: Quarterbacks (2021 Update)

5. Jacoby Brissett (2020 #4)

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlight

Legacy

4. Philip Rivers (2020 Not Listed)

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlights

Legacy

3. Jim Harbaugh

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlight

Legacy

2. Andrew Luck

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlights

Legacy

1.Peyton Manning

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlights

Legacy

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