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Best bet for a hardgainer: Tracking/training apps, bulking meals, routines and other tips?

Hello everybody!
I have been working out for about three quarters of a year now and I have not experienced as much progress as expected. Since I have been 'bulking' (or at least trying to) for some time and it has not really paid off, I have decided to be more serious about my diet and, of course, eat more. This is why I have decided to post in this group - to get as much knowledge and as many tips as possible from all of the experienced lifters out there.

Below, there is a list of both pieces of information about me and things that I would love for you to help me with:
About me:

Questions for you:

All of the above-mentioned questions are only examples. There are surely many more out there. You can choose to answer none at all or all of them - it is up to you. I am just happy that you have taken your time to read this far. So thank you in advance :)
Best regards,
A curious hardgainer.
submitted by lucas1607 to gainit [link] [comments]

Kiss my Score - app to bet on football with friends! Make predictions, track your score live and be the best pundit. (Any football/soccer fans out there?Would love to know what you think about it)

Kiss my Score - app to bet on football with friends! Make predictions, track your score live and be the best pundit. (Any football/soccer fans out there?Would love to know what you think about it) submitted by Footballcraziness to SideProject [link] [comments]

MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry

MVIS: Shiny Laser Go Pew ⚡ No But Seriously They Are Gonna Take Over The LiDAR Industry
So, the day has come, and MicroVision's market cap is finally big enough so that you won't get banned for mentioning it on WSB. But what is it? Why have they seen an 800%+ increase in three months? Where are they headed? Allow me to explain.
About Them
MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS) makes futuristic-as-fuck laser technology that's used in self driving cars and augmented reality headsets. This already sets them apart from a major competitors like Velodyne (VLDR), which focuses solely on LiDAR for self driving cars.
Sumit Sharma, the CEO, was head of operations at Google's Project GLASS and has worked to map hardware development at Motorola, also worked at Jawbone. Source
Why have they been increasing 800% in three months while similar companies in the same sector see a fraction of that gain?
Because their tech is much more advanced than the competition, and they were (are) criminally undervalued.
The reason they're so undervalued is because the first thing hedge funds see when they research a potential investment is the balance sheet, and on paper MVIS looks like shit. (Low assets, high liabilities) Even I saw the movement back in December, did some research, and was like "Wtf is this? I need to get puts" But once you do research into their product, who their customers are, and the future of the industry that they are involved in, you see that MicroVision is a turnaround story similar to that of Plug Power; both are 90's futuristic companies that people got way too excited about in 2000, have struggled to make it to 2020, but now are about to finally have their heyday. And they got a $13 million equity facility (loan) in December that greatly improved their balance sheet, making them appeal to institutions, and bringing Vanguard and Blackrock to invest in MVIS days later. I actually had a hedge fund manager tell me that MVIS was doomed to run out of cash in Q1 2020, but if they secured funds then they would have a lot of potential. I go over that in the comments.
MVIS (left) vs PLUG (right) 1990's until present
Anyways, what is this "much more advanced" technology? I'll just let this chart do the talking:
The MicroVision Consumer LIDAR being compared here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars, that will be coming in April.
The resolution it can take as input/second, the points per second, is key when it comes to how clearly the LiDAR sensor can see, how accurately it can identify what it is seeing, and how quickly it can react.
That chart is from 2 years ago and still the best resolution Velodyne can provide today is only 4,800,000 pps in their most advanced model, the "Alpha Prime"
3D Lidar Data Points Generated 2- Single Return Mode: ~ 2,400,000 points per second- Dual Return Mode: ~ 4,800,000 points per second.
VLDR has not publicly announced a price for their Alpha Prime yet, but historically their top of the line devices cost $75,000. I have seen unsourced numbers of the Alpha Prime costing $100,000. That was last year, will probably be brought down to be more reasonable for automakers to purchase. They did announce a $500 model called the Velarray H800 in November, but the only thing they said about its pps resolution is that its "outstanding"... lol.
As for Luminar (LAZR), they will launch the new model "Iris" in 2022, which will cost about $1,000: (the same price as MicroVision's device to be revealed in April). It will also only operate at 10Hz. This is similar to playing a racing game at 10FPS. If you know anything about video games, you know that this is unplayable.
Iris will cost less than $1,000 per unit for production vehicles seeking serious autonomy, and for $500 you can get a more limited version for more limited purposes like driver assistance, or ADAS. Luminar says Iris is 'slated to launch commercially on production vehicles beginning in 2022,' but that doesn't mean necessarily that it's shipping to customers right now. The company is negotiating more than a billion dollars in contracts at present, a representative told me, and 2022 would be the earliest that vehicles with Iris could be made available.
A lengthy post has been make comparing Luminar's resolutions with MicroVision's, which was not easy to calculate because Luminar said their resolution was "300dpi/spdeg", a statistic that is incomprehensible for shareholders because its not the common specification of millions (3D) points per second. Here's the math, I sum it all up at the bottom:
Luminar's Hydra claims resolution of "up to 200 points per square degree" and a FOV of 120° x 30° (degrees). (and 300 points for Iris, the one coming in 2022.)
However, the vertical FOV can be configured from 1° to 30° , which likely explains the use of "up to" in the resolution numbers. Generally, as FOV expands, resolution shrinks, assuming a constant pixel stream. This is why Alex Kipman made such a big deal about MSFT maintaining resolution in Hololens 2(YT links aren't allowed apparently) while expanding FOV because it required more pixels to do so.
Specifically, regarding Luminar, is 200 points per square degree available when FOV is at the maximum 120° x 30°? Or is it available only at a lesser FOV such as, for example, 120° x 5°? The use of "up to" suggests the latter.
Even assuming 200 points per square degree at 120° x 30° is available, which is not conceded given the stated "up to", that would yield a total resolution of 720,000 points. MVIS claims capacity in excess of 20M points per second. At a resolution of 720,000 points, Luminar would require a frame rate of 27.7 Hz to equal 20M points per second. Luminar's specs do not suggest that its technology is capable of such a high frame rate at this resolution. This is not surprising given it does not use MEMS micromirrors but something more "mechanical" including, as per a recent patent, spindles and a drive belt
(1) At video time 19:56, Luminar compares the specs of its Iris product to industry requirements. The graphic reveals that Luminar's 2022 production lidar, Iris, will support resolution of 300 points per square degree at 10 Hz. Assuming that resolution applies to the entire FOV of 120 x 30 degrees and not just a portion of the FOV, that would imply a points per second value of 120 x 30 x 300 x 10 Hz = 10.8M points per second. If the 300 points/ sq. deg applies only to a smaller FOV, the points per second figure would be proportionally smaller. Microvision claims 20M points per second for its current MEMS lidar. The company also advises that its technology is capable of more than 20M points/sec.
TLDR: The best case scenario for Luminar is that their 2022 model will have 10.8 million pps, but in reality its probably much lower than that because of FOV configurations, careful wording by press releases, and Hz limitations. Additional Interesting insight on Luminar and their tech lagging behind is in the comments, this post is long enough already.
Again the MicroVision Consumer LIDAR (specifications) being used for comparison here isn't even their model designed for self-driving cars. Their device specialized for cars, the "1st gen Long Range LiDAR (LRL) Sensor", will be coming in April.
We expect our 1st generation LRL Sensor to have range of at least 250 meters and the highest resolution at range of any lidar with 340 vertical lines up to 250 meters, 568 vertical lines up to 120 meters and 944 vertical lines up to 60 meters. This equates to 520 points per square degree.
(For those who read the math on LAZR, notice he doesn't say up to)
It testing is successful, the 1st Generation LRL Sensor will be able to calculate velocity of objects relative to itself, and be able to be used in Level 3 and Level 4 self-driving applications
Our LRL Sensor will also output velocity of moving objects relative to an ego vehicle across our dynamic field of view in real-time 30 Hz sensor output. This sensor would accelerate development of Level 3 (L3) autonomous safety and Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving features that are important to potential customers and interested parties.
What is Level 3 and Level 4 autonomous driving?
https://preview.redd.it/n4c8831l9dh61.png?width=848&format=png&auto=webp&s=0652984c72da3159b53a4fc4058c9d9e33cc6b05
Level 1 is feet off, level 2 is hands off, level 3 is eyes off, level 4 is mind off, and level 5 is full passenger (you can sit in the back). So basically, they have that 2045 technology today, while everyone else is trying to play catch-up. How is it so advanced? It all lies in the high resolution of the laser sensors.
I've seen MVIS's LiDAR in action at a shareholder meeting. It can recognize people. This has been described on MicroVision's conference calls, and has been described with significant additional safety and convenience features.
This could identify individual people
Can distinguish between pets and people (or YOUR pet and the neighbors pet)
Can distinguish between normal behaviors and strange things that could be of concern
Could save face-scans of intruders and allow intruders to be identified later Source
If their devices can really recognize people, objects, and pets, it could integrate security verticals in MicroVision's business model. (Video surveillance is expected to reach a 144.5 B market size by 2027) Why not just use cameras? Cameras are worse at long distances,
LiDAR is the only sensor that gives you resolution at range: the ability to get very fine and very accurate detection of objects in space.
that's why Teslas use radar systems in addition to their cameras, still not good enough to prevent fatalities on the road using Tesla's "full self-driving" software. Also, cameras struggle with light glare, weather, and 3D imaging, while LiDAR fixes all those issues. The main advantage of cameras are their resolution, and MicroVision is bridging the gap.
So, will testing be successful?
We expect the capability of our LRL Sensor to meet or exceed OEM requirements, based on technology we have scaled multiple times over the last decade, as being a very strong strategic advantage. (Same source)
This product has been getting fine tuned for years and I am personally confident that they will be able to outperform in their testing.
Demonstration(YT links aren't allowed apparently) of their consumer LiDAR product from 2018 (make sure your quality is all the way up).

Growing Industry
The self-driving cars market is expected to reach 220.44 billion dollars by 2025. This includes taxi, civil, public transport, heavy duty trucks, ride shares, and ride hail (UBER - 72 B mkt cap) applications.
Traffic Accidents in the US alone Cost 871 Billion A Year, even just yesterday there was an insane pileup on the I-35W highway in Texas that killed 6, injured 36, and damaged 133 vehicles.
Not only self-driven cars need LiDAR. In a few years, as soon as MicroVision's 1st Gen LRL is available, LiDAR systems will certainly become mandatory for (still) human-controlled cars to avoid collisions. This tech could become as revolutionary and successful as airbags. Airbags are a 37.3 billion dollar industry.
If only 10% of the cars produced annually contain four Microvision LRL systems, this will result in a volume of 364 million units in ten years. (9.1 million cars * 4 modules * 10 years) And this is a conservative calculation, both a higher market share, more cars produced, and more modules per car are conceivable.
At least 4 LRL devices will be necessary to establish a \"circle of safety.\"

Augmented Reality
The Hololens 2 is an example of a Virtual Reality Device (VRD) manufactured by Microsoft that uses MicroVision MEMS Laser Scanning display modules inside.
NASA & Lockeed Martin using Hololens (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently)
'When a technician puts on the Hololens, they instantly see the work instruction, instead of having to go through stacks of rectangular data, whether its paper or another form of a screen'...
'We see a reduction in cost, increases in quality'...
'What we've found is we can take an 8 hour activity and reduce it down to 45 minutes'...
'We haven't had a single error that's been documented'...
From 2002-2006, MVIS commercialized versions of a monochrome (red) VRD for industry and the military. It was called Nomad.
Microvision also developed a full color version for the military, the Spectrum SD2500.
The military alone currently intends to spend almost $3B on IVAS, augmented reality devices that use MicroVision tech, in the next several years. (Video at 1:12 - "based on Microsoft's Hololens" - amazing, must watch - "lets you see around corners.. see through smoke") (There is a money trail to confirm too: financial report)
One of the many capabilities of the IVAS heasets.
MicroVision revolutionizing the way people use GPS systems, to launch in July. (GPS industry will be 146.4 B by 2025)
This new GPS system comes equipped with an augmented reality heads-up-display (HUD) that attaches directly to your sun visor. This laser-projected GPS micro-display, developed in collaboration with MicroVision, makes it appear that your route directions show directly on top of the road, letting you keep your eyes on the road at the same time.
There's a reason that Apple CEO Tim Cook said a few weeks ago that Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing."
Cook was asked about what he expects to be the biggest tech developments in the next five to 10 years. Cook’s response made it clear that he sees augmented reality as the future, calling it the “next big thing.”
Imperial College Healthcare using Hololens 2 to fight the coronavirus.
While attending a trauma call in the early stages of the pandemic, Mr Kinross noticed that 29 people were working in close proximity. He realized the established way of working would have to change dramatically.
Mercedes-Benz using Microsoft HoloLens 2 for faster, safer vehicle service.
Mercedes-Benz Virtual Remote Support
The technician is then linked with a Mercedes-Benz specialist working remotely who can see what the tech sees and communicate in real-time -- manipulating the holographic information with annotations, highlighting areas of focus, pointing at things in the real world and presenting documents and service manuals.
In the next few years, business verticals will be possible in the markets for smart glasses (Video)(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and projections with touchless input(YT links aren't allowed apparently) and gesture control. For example, an eyewear company could develop the smallest and lightest smart glasses device on the market using the chip in that smart glasses video.
In the MicroVision Augmented Reality video, for example, we share a potential module design using our existing MEMS technology platform that could offer the lightest, smallest in volume, low power module with up to 40 degrees field of view packaged into eye wear that resembles frames currently accepted in the market. I believe one could see how our module in the design example would be compelling for a mass-market product. Source

Patents
MicroVision has 484 patents granted and pending. This was enough to get them on the Ocean Tomo 300 Patent Value Index. What is that you ask?
The Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Value Index includes the top value companies of the broad- market Ocean Tomo 300® Patent Index, as determined by the price-to-book ratio, and is diversified across market capitalization. It is the industry’s first value index based on the value of intellectual property and represents a portfolio of 60 companies with the highest innovation ratio (i.e., patent maintenance value relative to book value). Source
This index also outperforms the Russel 1000 and the S&P 500.
Their intellectual property includes in-house developed custom MEMS, custom optics, proprietary digital and analog silicon chips, embedded real-time firmware and software, manufacturing processes, custom automation and strategic partnerships that allow them to operate in a sleek model.
MicroVision patents and products therefore serve many future markets:
Whoever has the MicroVision technology may be able to eliminate the competition or demand license fees from them. Or the other way around: Whoever does not buy the technology can be excluded from markets. Therefore, bidding competition may arise to gain access to the market. Whoever has the best LiDAR system for cars will also be able to supply other components and software to car manufacturers. The car manufacturer who has the best LiDAR system has a big advantage over the competition.

All Notable Competition: Velodyne LiDAR, Luminar, Sense Photonics, Robosense, Valeo, SureStar
MicroVision: founded in 1993
Velodyne Lidar VLDR: founded in 1983, but as a subwoofer company 😂 and only got into LiDAR in 2005
LAZR: founded in 2012
Non-Public:
Valeo: Founded in 1998
Robosense: Founded in 2014
SureStar: Founded in 2005
Basically, MVIS is all these other companies' daddy. They have been working on LiDAR for almost 30 years and it shows, just imagine what they will be able to develop in a few years with more funding.
https://preview.redd.it/eh5csdcz9dh61.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=068fe6f5508e693ace5c6c56d4d2a5d9294836fb
Insider Activity
MicroVision is very transparent with its inner workings of the company, you can easily reach out to them on their website under "Investors." One of many conferences held with Vice President David Westgor, investor relations manager Dave Allen, and investors of MVIS revealed:
As to the employee incentive plan, Steve Holt made the point that in his 7 years of experience (I think it was) with MVIS, NO EMPLOYEE had actually ever cashed out in the money options.
Case in point, on December 1s, 2020, the day after she joined the team, Judith Curran was paid with 3 million dollars worth of $3 calls expiring in 2022, and she has not cashed out.
On Yahoo it reports that the last insider sale was in 2014.

Institutional Investments
For reasons stated earlier, institutions have been late to the game on this one, but now are starting to get on the rocket ship before it takes off. MVIS is now the largest holding in the S&P Kensho Moonshots Index, (KMOONP), which is literally an ETF of stocks that are going go the moon 🌙 . Blackrock purchased 2.44 million shares on December 31, 2020. Vanguard purchased 6.61 million shares on the same day.

Recent Events
MVIS's stagnation really started to break on December 1st 2020, with MVIS when former Ford Executive Judith Curran was added to MVIS's board of directors.
Curran is an accomplished senior automotive executive with over 30 years of experience in vehicle program, engineering and technology leadership. Curran has a strong record of leading innovation at Ford Motor Company where she served in a number of executive positions including Director of Technology Strategy, where she developed the cross-vehicle global strategy for key new technologies including assisted driving, infotainment, new electrical architectures, and connectivity.
Doesn't take a genius to figure out they were about to ride the EV wave, and were appointing the right people to be poised to do so.
Eight days later on December 8th 2020, the US Congress approved approximately $700M for the roll-out of IVAS in 2021.
7 days after that on December 15th, MVIS broke $4 for the first time in nine years.
December 29, 2020: MicroVision Announces $13 Million At-the-Market Equity Facility (this is huge for improving balance sheet and attracting hedge funds/institutional ownership)
So far, our team remains on track to complete our Long Range Lidar sensor sample in April 2021. We believe this financing will further solidify our balance sheet as we remain committed to pursuing strategic alternatives and establishing value for our shareholders,” said Sumit Sharma, MicroVision Chief Executive Officer. “We expect a stronger balance sheet will provide the Company with runway through 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 to enable us to continue development of our lidar sensor while pursuing strategic alternatives,” said Steve Holt, MicroVision Chief Financial Officer.
December 31: Vanguard adds 6.6 million shares, Blackrock adds adds 2.4.
January 20, 2021: Apple CEO Tim Cook says Augmented Reality is the "Next Big Thing."
Feb 2, 2021 YooToob stock analyst Deadnsyde covers(YT links aren't allowed apparently) MVIS, causing the beginning of a large breakout past $8.
Feb 4: MicroVision granted patent (WSB bot is blocking source from being posted- thinks it contains a ticker), essentially lidar on a chip, this patent in particular is huge. (solid state lidar)
Feb 10: Cramer mentions MVIS, says LIDAR is one of three battlegrounds for EV competition.
Feb 10 after hours: MVIS announces Progress on Automotive Long Range LiDAR, saying
“We expect MicroVision’s Long Range Lidar Sensor, (LRL Sensor) which has been in development for over two years, to meet or exceed requirements established by OEMs for autonomous safety and autonomous driving features,” said Sumit Sharma, Chief Executive Officer of MicroVision.
Feb 11: Volkswagen and Microsoft team up on automated driving (potential for MVIS to get involved).

Talent at MicroVision
Sumit Sharma became the CEO in February of 2020, he is a mechanical engineer that has been with MVIS for five years after having been the head of operations at Google Project Glass, and working for Motorola and Jawbone.
Dr. Mark Spitzer is on the board of directors having previously worked at Google X, Darpa, Kopin and having founded Myvu and Photonic Glass.
Judy Curran joined the board this year after spending 30 years at Ford, where she was the Director of Technical Strategy. She is also the Head of Global Automotive Strategy for Ansys, a simulation software company that works with ADAS systems.

Technical analysis
Resistance at 46.75, 123. 39, and 204. 23, could turn to supports.
Moving Average Analysis:
On February 28, 2020, Market Cap of PLUG was 1.32B, on this date the 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 11 months later, PLUG has a market cap of 33.79B, an increase of 2459%.
On September 3, 2020, Market Cap of MVIS was 0.21B, on this date 120 day MA touches the 8y moving average. 5 months later, MVIS has a market cap of 2.77B an increase of 1219%.
6 months forward price target: $34.348B

Conclusion/Valuation/TLDR
LAZR is currently valued at 12.22B
VLDR at 3.92B
MVIS at 2.77B
MicroVision offers a quantitatively much higher performance product than both of its competitor companies. Because of their lack of focus on augmented reality technologies, competitors are not likely to have a future in the markets of smart glasses, healthcare, engineering, military equipment, GPS safety, entertainment, and interactive projectors. They are involved in an industry that is currently at an inflection point, due to grow massively in the near future. Their high number of extremely advanced patents will bring in significant revenue for the company in the coming years. I have never seen a company with such low insider selling, that the last case of a sale was in 2014. Institutional investors are piling in as MicroVision's balance sheet improves and they near the April LRL sensor test date, which has a high likelihood of being a success. I think this stock should currently be valued at 20 Billion dollars, taking all of this into account, and expect it to rise drastically over the next few years.
This is not financial advice, I am not a financial advisor, do your own research before believing some retard on the internet. Positions: 300 shares, $19 call 5/21, $20 call 3/19, $31 call 2/19(FD), $28 call 2/19, $24 call 2/19.
submitted by BigBlackWifey to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Why Index Funds are Not as Safe and Bubbles are Not as Destructive as You Might Believe

Why Index Funds are Not as Safe and Bubbles are Not as Destructive as You Might Believe
According to Morningstar research in the middle of 2019 almost half of all US stocks were part of some passive index fund. This number almost doubled since 2009. In the meantime, active management is on a steady decline, especially active managed funds. Around the same time Dr. Michael Burry compared index funds to CDOs. Let’s look into this case and try to draw something from it for our benefit.
1. How come index funds are compared to CDOs if they only track industries or sectors of economy?
What we often miss is that the index fund, instead of being a neutral observer, is an active participant in the fundamentals of the companies that compose a particular index. The fund does so by providing capital and influencing market value of a security (this also opens a window of opportunities for the company behind the ticker to raise capital via bank loans or private investments). What’s so bad about this? Well, passive funds don’t go through balance sheets, there is no fair value assessment, no analysis and no risk taking. They just buy whatever company is big enough to make it into the index. This company can then use provided capital to stay afloat or influence it’s price by share buybacks, dividends or simply pay huge bonuses to it’s management. Just like banks didn’t care about subprime mortgages that were packed into CDOs, index funds managers don’t care about what exactly goes into their ‘soup’. With the banks it was just greed and ignorance – in case of index funds it’s by design.
When there is a stable influx of new capital into passive funds, zombie companies are dragged higher and higher. WSB goddess Cathie Wood called this the greatest misallocation of funds in the history. But why is so much cash flowing into index funds? Is it a trend? Is someone incentivized to promote them? Well, yes, but the main reason is different: boomer psychology and our friend, the FED. See, boomers have massive capitals. All those pension funds, retiring firefighters, trust babies, capital heirs – they all seek safety. They don’t try to get 500% returns YOY or lose it all. They are very content with just beating inflation. Throw few percents above inflation and they will be over the moon. For a long time their favorite asset class were treasuries.
2. What is happening to the bond market?
In 2016 US bond market was almost $40 trillion in value, compared to less than $20 trillion for the domestic stock market. Now, I haven’t seen yet the data about the size of US bond market of 2020, but everything points that it’s ratio to stock market is deteriorating. The US 10-year government-bond yield fell from nearly 2.00% at the beginning of the year to an all-time low of just 0.31% in early March. That’s what Rick Rule called ‘return free risk’, since allocating capital into these treasuries almost guarantees you to lose money to inflation.
https://preview.redd.it/q6r2fhqfu6961.png?width=1372&format=png&auto=webp&s=b72fad038a47ee1a0adca587881f46bafc25cc89
Look at what is happening in Europe: “The ECB, which added 500 billion euros ($606 billion) to its pandemic bond buying program, is set to own around 43% of Germany’s sovereign bond market by the end of next year and around two-fifths of Italian notes, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s up from around 30% and 25% respectively at the end of 2019... Trading volumes in bund futures have collapsed 62% since the ECB started buying bonds, according to Axa, while ranges the lifeblood of traders have nosedived across Europe. In both the safest and riskiest nations, this quarter’s spread between the highest and lowest yields is the tightest it’s been since at least the global financial crisis.”
The FED is doing quite the same. Buying bonds (including corporate) all over the place and lowering interest rates to the ground. What’s even more devastating for boomers is that there’s no hope on the horizon: the FED promises to keep interest rates low for the next few years. We are really heading towards Japan situation where the central bank is that fat ugly bully kid playing all by himself in the sandbox.
3. Where to go if the bonds are not so hot?
This all causes big money to chase the next best thing. What do people consider safe? Real Estate. And indeed it rose: according to Knight Frank Global House price index US housing prices rose 7% from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020. But that’s a lot of hustle for big money. And that is hardly a passive income, rather a career. So the next best thing is index funds. What can be better than tracking the whole US economy? Never bet against America, am I right? Even if we stumble upon a market crash sending S&P down – the economy will recover, it always does, right? The influx of cash into ETFs is basically a self fulfilling prophecy: it drives prices up and those yearly returns get even more lucrative compared to sexy 0.31% provided by treasuries.
The data shows that 2019-2020 saw again a spike in passive management allocation, but I couldn't find more up to date graph
Even worse is that actively managed funds and bank investments start to, basically, replicate index funds. That is due to the risk/reward factor: if the funds outperform the market - they get some good rep and few new customers; but when they underperform the market – they get absolutely obliterated. Only few outsiders can risk picking deep value stocks or plays, that are not common portfolio dwellers. Or it takes someone with huge authority like Warren Buffett or Howard Marks.
4. Bubbles everywhere
Now, at this point you might be on the edge of your seat, banging your fist and thinking that this is nothing but a bubble and the boomers, index funds and the FED are to blame. Well, it is. Hard truth is that fundamentals in the long run always kick-in. So-called Buffett indicator (total stocks market cap to GDP) is almost at a record high. And on top of that we have Dot.com bubble 2.0 with crazy tech enthusiasm. And a second real estate bubble too. But I urge you to notice, that bubbles are not all the same with the same outcome. Well, they all go burst, but that’s not the point. There are bubbles that I would call ‘General Market Heat’ - situations when too much money goes into the market, causing it to overheat. Then some sort of event, panic, fear, or rumor, not necessary caused by declining fundamentals, sends the market to downward spiral. As an example: panic of 1857, 1929, 1987, etc. The better the fundamentals were and the least the government gets involved – the faster it rebounds. Those bubbles do nothing but attract more speculators and their only result is the number of bankruptcies. Then there are bubbles that I would call ‘Thematic Bubbles’ - those are dedicated to some specific industry or a number of particular stocks that are expected to grow enormously. Tulip Mania in Netherlands (1637), Railway Mania in UK (1840s), Video Games Crash of 1983, Dot Com Bubble (2000). They all chased some particular novelty and all landed on their faces. But doing so they provided huge capital to developing industries. Dot Com Bubble gave us rapid growth of internet usage. Video Games chase of the late 70s and early 80s gave us the golden age of arcade gaming and huge inventions in graphics and game tech. Railway Mania left Britain with the largest system of railroads in the world. And guess who is the biggest exporter of tulips and holds 49 % of the global flower market? Yep, Netherlands, to this day, almost 400 years since the mania!
This did not in any way benefit the majority of investors who went down with the bubble. But you can view this as a sacrifice of dumb and greedy people for the benefit of the progress. I get a sense of pride in this noble cause, as a member of WSB community.
Back to boomers and index funds. By pouring money into index funds they provide capital both to disruptive industries and to zombie companies. The good thing is that the tech gets the majority of it, since it has the biggest share. Just look at the SPY top 6 holdings:
https://preview.redd.it/ien160wku6961.png?width=361&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4fb8528478110ff0f2d5f9e1a793d7b5e5a9085
It’s genuinely good that companies like Tesla will get allocation of billions and billions which they (frankly) do not quite deserve at current fundamentals. This will accelerate their growth. The bad thing is that such allocations cement big tech monopolies, damaging competition. And it also provides liquidity to zombie companies big enough to make it into indexes.
Difference is that innovative companies use this cash to reinvest into future growth. That’s exactly why their P/E ratios are so bad. Zombies spend cash on buybacks and management bonuses. Because of how all these companies are tied together in index funds and due to the nature of modern margin calls – once any segment of the stock market falls, there will be a massive dip. Tech can drown any industry stocks with them and vice versa. But the Tech will be able to cut investments, R&D and expansions and become profitable, while zombies with a big debt will go bankrupt. Either way it’s investors, who will bear the pain.
5. What shall we draw from here:

  1. There are huge inflows into the stock market. And the blame is not so much on the kids with RH as it is on the boomers and ‘smart money’ chasing index funds;
  2. If you want to short any of the bubbles as a hedge – do not short the most growing and volatile sectors and ETFs like QQQ, because they benefit from the current market in a long run. And also the premiums are huge due to IV. Rather short slow and steady industries, because they will get nuked just as much in case of a crash, but the premiums you pay now will be much lower;
  3. Passive index funds investing makes ‘price discovery’ and a search for deep value so much more challenging. But not impossible. Basically, Peter Lynch’s advise to look for companies with smaller institutional ownership still lives up today. Does this mean that prices can’t be good or go up under big index allocation? Hell no. But the chance to find a ten-bagger declines.As an anecdote: look into our champion’s GME institutional ownership: on Jan 31 2020 it was 96.6 % and declined to relatively low 66.7 by Sep 30. Exactly before it doubled in the next 3 months;
  4. Some bubbles provide needed capital to developing and hyped industries causing structural change. Unfortunately, it is paid by investors who rarely see any return;
  5. FED is to blame for everything (as always);
  6. WSBers will lose money either way (as always).

TL;DR:
The bond market is similar to boomers wives: sexy in the 80s, not so much today. Constant intrusions by their relatives (the FED) into their relationships makes things even worse. That sends boomers chasing young girls - the stocks. But their dongles aren’t so active anymore, so boomers prefer passive approach, using a dating app - index funds. Unfortunately, there are only so many hot girls among young ladies on the app. This leads to ugly ones receiving attention and money from boomers, which they otherwise wouldn’t deserve. Some of those ladies spend money wisely and will be good to go once the boomer dies out. Others immediately waste it on shopping. Now, if a young man wants to find a truly beautiful lady with reasonable expectations – he has a better chance searching outside of the boomer dating app.
Obligatory pictograph of a rocket for those of us who are not yet fully developed for an alphabet
🚀 🚀 🚀
submitted by negovany to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)

I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
 
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to.
Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547
I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can.
I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts.
Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T

Intro

CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association

"Who does this union really fucking serve?"

ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission

"They have been put in an impossible position."

Stream Sniping

"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"

Match Fixing

"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."

North America

"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."

Talent

"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."

Valve

"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"

Closing Statements

"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."

submitted by Tharnite to GlobalOffensive [link] [comments]

Destruction AllStars - Review Thread

Game Information

Game Title: Destruction AllStars
Platforms:
Trailers:
Developer: Luicid Games
Publisher: Sony Interactive Entertainment
Review Aggregator:
OpenCritic - 69 average - 35% recommended - 18 reviews

Critic Reviews

Ars Technica - Sam Machkovech - Unscored
The good outweighs the bad. Get a PlayStation Plus trial and give this imperfect car-combat gem a spin.
Chicas Gamers - Estela Villa - Spanish - Unscored
Destruction AllStars is a destruction derby with frenetic gameplay and a good foundation for future growth. If you like the style of play, it will give you hours and hours of fun and we hope that over time more game modes will come. A novel bet by Lucid Games that with time could become the next Rocket League.
Critical Hit - Darryn Bonthuys - 7.5 / 10
Destruction AllStars is both new and familiar, but it's a refreshing collection of cars, modes, and madcap driving that shows great promise for the future. A mental destruction derby with some admittedly annoying quirks, there's plenty of charm under the hood of this game that respects your time and smashes into the competition with a gung-ho attitude and some novel ideas.
Daily Star - Tom Hutchison - 4 / 5 stars
Destruction AllStars is a brilliant new addition to the PS5 roster and will brighten up dull February with some colourful car-smashing fun.
DualShockers - Peter Szpytek - 7.5 / 10
Destruction AllStars made me feel like a kid playing with Hot Wheels, it's just a shame how often it falls off the tracks.
Eurogamer - Wesley Yin-Poole - No Recommendation / Blank
In desperate need of depth and content, Destruction AllStars is at least a fun whiz around the corner.
Explosion Network - Dylan Blight - 7 / 10
Hopefully, there's an injection of skins and other items to chase over the next month, and it'll be able to sustain a long-term player base. I'd love to be part of that group as I'm enjoying smashing into cars like never before, but the game needs a better progression system.
Game Informer - Jeff Cork - 8 / 10
Destruction AllStars' frantic blend of bumper-car and on-foot action offers plenty of short-term fun, but the thrills are less thrilling after a few hours
GameCrate - Angelo D'Argenio - 9 / 10
Destruction AllStars may not be a killer app that sells you on a PS5, but anyone who owns a PS5 will be happy to add it to their library. It is definitely one of the best perks of owning a PS5 yet.
GamePro - Hannes Rossow - German - 78 / 100
Destruction AllStars offers innovative multiplayer action without interruptions, but monetization stands in the way of the game itself.
Hobby Consolas - Daniel Quesada - Spanish - 75 / 100
This new PS5 exclusive offers some amusing ideas while taking advantage of the superior hardware, but it's too shallow in content and uses some greedy strategies. Future updates could change the situation, though.
Metro GameCentral - GameCentral - 5 / 10
A fun, uncomplicated romp that's a great way to relax for 20 minutes or so. Beyond that though it struggles to entertain, especially given the grubby approach to microtransactions.
PPE.pl - Matthew Sparrow - Polish - 5.5 / 10
Lucid Games didn't take care of immersive modes or extensive vehicle controls, which creeps into the monotony. The visuals itself will not be the title on the pedestal.
PlayStation Universe - Joe Apsey - 5 / 10
Destruction AllStars is a clunky mess of a multiplayer experience, committing a few cardinal sins when it comes to its online experience and offering uninteresting and dull gameplay most of the time. Each character feels unique and their abilities and vehicles are fun to use, but when meshed with the rest of the experience, it doesn't work. Predatory microtransactions, a lack of lore and backstory into the AllStars, and poor single-player offerings make this the weakest PlayStation Studios title in a long time.
Push Square - Stephen Tailby - 6 / 10
Destruction AllStars can be a brilliantly frantic multiplayer game, with fun characters and cars, great DualSense feedback, and entertaining modes. However, it can ring a little hollow at times when the action dips. Lacklustre customisation options and mictrotransaction-locked content doesn't help matters, but when everything is playing out smoothly, this is more than capable of giving you a good time. Currently free to PS Plus members, it's well worth taking for a spin.
Shacknews - TJ Denzer - 8 / 10
As far as gameshow/sporting event-style games go, Destruction AllStars is maybe some of the most fun I’ve had in a while. I love the pageantry when a match starts and my character does their intro before kicking things off. The visuals are smooth and pristine throughout the fast-paced action and the gameplay in different modes is absolutely delightful. I would like the foot game to be boosted a bit, and it desperately needs some better cosmetics and an easy-access Mute All function, but there’s an absolutely enthralling foundation here in Destruction AllStars. I want to see more characters, more arenas, events… I want to see where Destruction AllStars goes in the long run and I’ll be happy to keep playing as we work our way there.
TheGamer - Sam Watanuki - 2 / 5 stars
I wanted to love Destruction AllStars. I still do. There’s just not enough there to make it worth my while right now. A couple of times, I ran into a weird technical issue where I would jump into a brand-new car, but it just wouldn’t move. I think that issues like this can certainly be fixed in a future patch, though. I also know that the development team of Lucid Games has a year’s-worth of content planned for the game. As such, although I can’t recommend playing Destruction AllStars right now, I do have high hopes for the future of the game. Especially since the car combat genre is ripe for the taking with no new Twisted Metal in sight.
TheSixthAxis - Jim Hargreaves - 6 / 10
The car combat genre has long been out of fashion and still has a way to go if it wants to take us back to its glory days of the 1990s. Destruction AllStars is a mostly satisfying modernisation that has some neat ideas and looks fantastic, though ultimately spins its tyres on repetitive rival-wrecking gameplay and a lack of truly worthwhile content at launch.
Use a Potion - Daryl Leach - 8 / 10
Destruction AllStars’ chaotic vehicular-based combat makes for an exhilarating (and surprisingly strategic) experience that I’ve had a blast playing – I just hope that it gets enough post-launch content and support to keep players coming back for more.
As it stands though, it’s certainly a heck of a lot of fun to play. Sure, there’s some inconsistencies in its scoring here and there and the arenas themselves lack imaginative flair, but between its colourful cast, it’s satisfyingly destructive driving, and its slick visuals, there really is a whole lot to like about Destruction AllStars frantic showdowns.
submitted by diogenesl to Games [link] [comments]

Album of the Year #14: Freddie Gibbs & The Alchemist - Alfredo

Artist: Freddie Gibbs & The Alchemist
Album: Alfredo
Listen:
Spotify
Apple Music
TIDAL
YouTube
Background
Freddie Gibbs is a veteran hip-hop artist signed to Warner Records known for his sharp flow, versatility and charisma. Born in Gary, Indiana, he found himself in the streets early, selling marijuana at a young age and progressively adding cocaine, heroin and other hard drugs to his catalog. In high school, he was an all-conference wide receiver and safety, and earned himself an athletic scholarship to play football at Ball State University. However, using what little information I could find on the topic, it seems after a year he was expelled, as Gibbs says he “didn’t go to class and shit,” and he focused on pursuing a rap career after this.
Gibbs released over a dozen mixtapes between 2004 and 2012, leading up to the release of his debut album, ESGN. Gibbs really broke out in the hip-hop scene in 2014 following the release of his critically acclaimed collaboration with legendary producer Madlib, Pinata. The record is now considered one of the best hip-hop records of the 2010s. Since then, he has dropped a handful of well received albums, including Shadow of a Doubt in 2015 and Bandana, the sequel to Pinata, with Madlib in 2019.
The Alchemist has been a staple of the hip-hop community for around 15 years, first coming onto the scene in the early ‘90s as one half of the rap duo The Whooliganz. His production work became noticed as he worked with Dilated Peoples and Mobb Deep later into the decade. He has worked with a laundry list of high profile artists such as Nas, Eminem, The LOX, Action Bronson, Earl Sweatshirt and ScHoolboy Q. In 2018, The Alchemist teamed up with Gibbs and Curren$y to release the highly anticipated Fetti, which marked Gibbs’ first collaboration with The Alchemist on his own music (he had appeared on a small number of Alchemist-produced songs as a feature before this).
Review
Alfredo opens up with 1985, an intro track that is appropriately backed by a very triumphant sounding electric guitar riff - reflecting his position in the game hot off the release of Bandana - and classic Gibbs content; guns and cocaine. This track transitions into God is Perfect, quickly switching from his victorious braggadocio into one of the stickiest (and one of the only, for that matter) hooks on the record.
Track 3, Scottie Beam, was released at a critical moment in 2020, considering the subject matter. The song, which features a very powerful verse from Gibbs centered on the topic of police brutality, was released just days after the murder of George Floyd and the beginning of the intense period of protesting and activism that followed. The phrase “The revolution is the genocide, your execution will be televised” is repeated in variation on the track, referring to the number of police brutality cases going viral in media with no end in sight. Gibbs’ verse is one of the most memorable of the project.
He pulled me over, I asked him “Yo, what’s the problem, sir?
I swerved to duck the potholes, man, I had no option, sir
Just let me go, cause my license, insurance proper, sir
I’d hate to be on the run for smokin’ a officer”
This quote, while not particularly complicated, showcases Gibbs’ charisma and presence on vocals, very casually threatening to off an officer that has racially profiled him. Rick Ross also appears on the song, and although it doesn’t really go along with Gibbs’ verse, it is still another solid Rick Ross feature. At the end of his verse, he has a particularly chilling quote about the deaths of Kobe and Gigi Bryant, wondering if he’s next.
Look at Me is a very atmospheric song where Gibbs drops a quick verse and hook, telling the listener to “look at me, motherfucker.” He flexes his cars and women in a power move over a very light beat. A signature Alchemist skit then flips us from a very calm song into the darkest track on the album, Frank Lucas. An appropriately named track, Gibbs and Griselda’s Benny the Butcher, two of today’s best coke rappers, both drop very strong verses over a very grimy beat that sticks out among the many lavish and luxurious beats it is surrounded by. However, strong transitions from The Alchemist make this switch up fit like a glove, and it doesn’t sound out of place.
On Something to Rap About, Freddie Gibbs links up with Tyler, The Creator in one of his very few guest verses since the release of his critically acclaimed and Grammy Nominated-album IGOR. The song has Gibbs and Tyler rap about their recent accomplishments in different lights. The song almost feels like it has a light side and a dark side to it that flips in the middle, as The Alchemist subtly but masterfully ups the pitch of the track’s sample just as Tyler’s verse is beginning. Gibbs talks about the finer things that crime and crack helped pay the way for, while Tyler brags about fashion and vacationing while addressing his haters.
I just got a thumbs up and niggas go like “Good job”
You better find a shoe store and get your sole, get it quick, slip it on
And I’ll be in Mykonos, lemonade, sippin’ slow
Jumpin’ in the water off that boat I haven’t bought yet
Tyler follows up his shots towards those that waste their time hating on his success by also calling out the yes men in his life, telling them to find a soul in a double entendre and tying it off by bringing it back to the boat he mentions in the beginning of the track. This song leads into Baby $hit, which, despite the name, is a track dedicated to his success with women, while clarifying that he doesn’t have time to wife a bitch because he’s cleaning up his son’s shit.
The track Babies & Fools finds Gibbs linking up with Griselda once again in a very personal collaboration with Conway the Machine. The two rappers lay down a trio of verses each over a very laid back sample of Christian group Andrus, Blackwood & Company’s All of Me, following a theme of imperfection despite everything they’ve accomplished and who they are. Gibbs and Conway come off as very honest on this song, both reflecting on their come up and successes, saying they gave their all for the streets, the hood, and, of course, mama, but making it known they aren’t perfect. Conway, in particular, shares his shortcomings as a father in his second verse.
My baby mama cut me off, she had enough of my shit
I’ll CashApp stacks every now and then like that’s enough
She like “At least FaceTime, your babies don’t see your ass enough”
Plus, my older son is failin’ math, that shit ain’t addin’ up
His next verse after this goes right back to his street cred, reminding the listener what he has done for his crew and what he’d do for them if an enemy ever crossed the line, staying true to the song’s message.
The album closes out with Skinny Suge and All Glass. Skinny Suge gives us one last drop of a vulnerable Freddie Gibbs before the end of the tape. The instrumental is very somber and stripped back, with a heavy bass and light snare keeping tempo over ambience and an ominous guitar sample. Gibbs takes the time to look back on the losses he’s taken on the come up, revisiting his label troubles early in his career and the dark side of the drug game. Some of the most striking lyrics of the project are on this track, particularly when Gibbs touches on his uncle’s passing.
Man, my uncle died off a overdose
And the fucked up part about that is I know I supplied the nigga that sold it
Put a pistol to my head, I was way too scared, drunk off emotions
I’m drinkin’ and takin’ these drugs cause I can’t numb the pain with smokin’
The song ends with a prayer to Allah, with Gibbs asking his Lord to protect him from the things out of his control while he lives by the street code. All Glass is the album’s finale, ending the album with a fearful, murder-full reminder that Gibbs is a powerful man who is not to be messed with.
Final Thoughts
I don’t believe this is anything close to a hot take, but this album is definitely in contention for the best album of 2020 in my eyes. It seems at times that Gibbs can work with any producer if he tries, but it still feels like this was an artist and producer combo destined for eachother. I’m more partial to Bandana over this project, but I still think this is a top of the line album that should not be missed. The features are all on point as well, especially Tyler and Conway, and I think this is an essential album for the “Old-school revival” currently happening.
Since I’ve already included lyrics as a part of my review, I’ll consider this a personal section and list some highlights for me as well as my favorite tracks.
Favorite Songs
  1. Babies & Fools
  2. Something to Rap About
  3. Frank Lucas
  4. God is Perfect
  5. Scottie Beam
Favorite Lyrics
Geekers beamin’ up to Scotty in my crack lobby, I can smell the caine burnin’
Gangland, if you put a hit on Freddie Kane, it’ll be a gang murder
1985 Michael Jordan, bitch, I travel with a cocaine circus
Flow God level like when Hov speak, I make a song weep, I got the game hurtin’
Freddie Gibbs on 1985
Scammin’ niggas maxin’ out, ratchet bitches actin’ out
God made me sell crack so I’d have somethin’ to rap about
Lobster lollipops and crustaceans, ho, what you mad about?
I fucked her twice in Vegas, that pussy wasn’t shit to brag about
Freddie Gibbs on Something to Rap About
Right back in the trap, these niggas bringin’ out the old me
I’m tryna live to 93 to see the old me
Freddie Gibbs on Something to Rap About
I cut some niggas off on some hater shit niggas said to me
R.I.P. tees cause these motherfuckers is dead to me
Nail is in the coffin, murder, murder
I’m sick of y’all niggas, and I ain’t coughin’, I know me
Y’all often anxious, lost in y’all thoughts and I don’t relate
So keep that energy away from me
Don’t blame me cause you ain’t got it figured out, you ain’t got the bigger house
The jig is up, you jealous, dawg, my afro long, I’ll pick it out
Tyler, The Creator on Something to Rap About
Get that white and I beat it up like I’m Mike
Jumper broke, man, a nigga can’t be like Mike
Freddie Gibbs on Baby $hit
Cougar pussy, I fuck a rich nigga wife
Doja Cat let me hit from the byke-byke
Freddie Gibbs on Baby $hit
Dumb high, Marty McFly, put down the crack, bet on myself
Like I went back to the future with a rap almanac
Freddie Gibbs on Skinny Suge
Discussion Questions
submitted by hoodiebrando to hiphopheads [link] [comments]

Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Predictions | Buy or Sell AAPL? Apple [AAPL] Stock Price Target & Analysis

Should you buy Apple stock or has the company run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Apple in the next years? Read until the end as I reveal my price target for Apple and also what I think will happen in the next couple of days, weeks & months!
~ Warning! Very Very Long Post~
Hello everyone! So, let’s go over some of the latest news on Apple before moving on to some fundamental and technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years.
So, let’s start with the news that Apple will cut the App Store commission in half for small app developers starting in the next days, this will affect developers who earn less than $1M annually from the App Store Sales. This is likely to lead to a small decline in commission revenues for Apple as around 98% of the app developers will qualify for this tax reduction from 30% to 15%, but all these small developers only contribute to about 5% of the estimated $50B in annual revenues from the App Store, so that would be only a $1.25B loss for the company, that is less than half a % of the company’s total net sales in the last fiscal year.
Also, these changes may lead to a potential long-term revenue boost, as it is likely this will lead to an increasing creation of apps which will generate more commissions in return.
Alongside this we also saw the company releasing the new MacBook’s with their first in-house chip, which promises faster video and imaging processing times, with both CPU and GPU performance up to 2 times faster than the latest PC laptop chip using just a fraction of the power consumption, with both of the macbooks promising big improvements in battery life. Apple is also expected to roll out even more in-house chips in future products, as they have started the 2-year breakup with Intel chips.
We also saw Morgan Stanley upgrading their base case to $191 at the end of November, as they have cited record lead times, supply chain forecasts and carriers demand as they expect that the company will sell around 270M iPhone in fiscal year 2021, that’s 50M more than the consensus and almost 30M more than the previous estimate of Morgan Stanley, with an average selling price of 842$, 9% more than the base case, as people tend to chose the more expensive and high tech versions of the lineup in this new 5G cycle.
The 5G super-cycle, which I believe is on the way, and will continue in the next years, as 5G become more available worldwide, could still be the biggest thing coming right away for the company with 5G smartphones expected to surpass 4G sales by 2024, with the average sale price of the 5G phones also coming down, helping them become more popular. This will also be helped by the recent entry to the Indian market, as India will probably become the world biggest country in the next decade, this could be a huge opportunity for Apple to start and take away market-share from their competitors like Samsung and Xiaomi which have the biggest market shares right now.
They also released an update iPad Pro and an all-new iPad Air in September which will also boost sales in this work-from-home environment that will keep the demand very high for this kind of products, just like the Macs. Alongside the increasing demand from the Wearables, Home & Accessories that include Air Pods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and many more products.
But the biggest reasons I believe Apple is poised for continued growth, is primarily due to its services business, as they start to offer more and more services like the Apple ONE BUNDLE, which include up to 6 services from (Apple Music, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, the new Apple Fitness+ and the iCloud service) for a pretty reasonable price in my opinion starting from 15$ up to 30$/month, this could be a great option for families and even individuals who use their services a lot.
The latest services, Fitness+ just launched in the past days, and is a direct competitor to the likes of Peloton, as the service is available on the iPhone, iPad or even Apple TV. This also makes consumers buy the Apple Watch which syncs to the other devices to show you different information. The Fitness+ app just on its own is 8$/month or 80$/year which is less expensive than Peloton subscription which charges 13$ or even traditional gyms like Planet Fitness at 10$/month.
I think this will be the fastest growing sector for the company, as this aligns with the new macro trends, as the world is moving more and more to a digital approach to almost everything as consumer preferences, with more & more younger people reaching the point in life when they use these services start to align to this increasing digital approach.
We also shouldn’t forget the Apple Card & Apple Pay service among many others which also seem to gain from the move to digital & contactless payments, as this has been accelerated due to the current situation in the past year.
And one last piece of news, and the most recent one, is that Apple may have fast-tracked the Titan project. The Titan project is targeting a 2024 or 2025 push to develop an electric vehicle with advanced battery technologies, that will deliver significant increases in range at much lower costs than the current technologies while also offering self-driving capabilities.
It’s reported they will not use the same technology as Tesla Full-Self-Driving feature, but will use LIDAR sensors, similar to those that we can find in the latest iPhone 12 PRO.
I think Apple can go 2 ways with this project, they can either use the huge amount of cash the company has to buy another car-maker like Ford, GM or any other car manufacturer expect Tesla and Toyota which do have a big market cap, so that they can fast-track the potential manufacturing of cars, or they can enter into a partnership with big companies like Tesla, Volkswagen or any other car marker to either produce cars or license their technology to this other car-makers which would ultimately and probably have higher margin-returns than the effective manufacturing of cars. Apple’s current overall gross margins stand at 38% vs the 15% average of the world top 10 automakers by market cap, which is significantly lower.
But this Apple Car thing is so far out, and there are so many unknowns, I will not try to predict anything related to this until there is more clarity on the subject.
And last, before moving on to some predictions, here are some of the highlights that we heard from the latest investors conference meeting, as the CEO, Tim Cook expressed optimism ahead with the launch of many new products and services, especially the Home Pod Mini and the new 5G iPhones, as these new iPhones include new LIDAR scanners that greatly improve the camera capabilities, as the iPhone as seen very positive reviews. We also saw the Senior VP and CFO, Luca Maestri give us great outlook for the company as they expect the installed devices base to continue to growth despite already being at an all-time high as they have over 585M paid subscriptions on their platforms and expect this to surpass 600M by the end of 2020.
I also researched and found what products we can see in the near future, with the first half of 2021 bringing new iMacs, the AirPods3 and the iPad Pro, while in the FALL event we will probably get the new iPhone 13 alongside the iPhone SE PLUS and the Watch Series 7 with more products coming later in 2021 or that don’t have an estimated release date like the Air Pods Pro, the Air Tags and the iPad Mini 6.
So, before even starting, you should know that I am bull on Apple but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below.
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research.
This are my 2025 projections for Apple, let’s take a closer look at them, each on their own.
So, in term of revenues, Apple has 5 big sources of income, which saw an overall increase of 6% despite lagging sales in the iPhone. The biggest revenue is by far the iPhone right now with over $137B in revenue in the fiscal year ending in September. I expect to see the iPhone sales increasing in the next years, especially in 2021, with the new 5G iPhone creating a super-cycle for the company, as most iPhone users, including myself here, as I will upgrade from my iPhone X, will switch to this new product. The iPhone sales have decreased in the last couple of years by 14% and 3% as a result of the product not having big improvements, as well as iPhone usually starting to last longer than previous models, so I expect to see a 12% increase in sales next year and a gradual decrease in the growth of sales as more people upgrade, ending with just a 5% growth in iPhone sales in 2025.
The next revenues stream is from the Mac, which has seen an increase in the past 2years, with revenues topping $28B this year after the huge demand from the work from home consumers. I expect this trend to continue as they plan to continue to launch better products and I can see the company having a similar growth next year before starting to decline slightly until 2025, also ending with a 5% growth.
The iPad is currently the smallest revenue stream for Apple but has also seen an increase in demand in the past 2 years with a 13% average increase in revenues. I also expect the iPad to continue to grow in the next couple of years, especially with the learn-from-home environment for kids, and even after this period ends, the transformation for learning will implicate more digital usage. I expect the iPad to see some similar growth to the Macs, especially with the latest generation also bringing a new iPad air to the market.
The 4th revenue stream and the fastest growing in the past 2 years, with an average growth of 33% are the wearables, home & accessories revenues. This have topped $30B this year, as Apple has also just launched the Apple Watch series 6 and also feature other great products like Apple TV, the Air Pods the Home Pod and the Home Pod mini alongside other third-party accessories.
I gave this revenue stream a growth of 20% starting next year with a gradual decrease to around 8% by 2025, as I believe this will become more & more popular as they start to offer more vertical integration.
And last, but by no means least, the revenue stream that I expect to grow the most and the fastest is the revenue from the services that Apple offers. This includes revenues from Apple Care, Advertising, Cloud Services, Payment Services like Apple Card & Apple Pay and of course the digital content which includes fees from the App Store alongside subscription-based income including the new Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ alongside the already know Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News+, Apple TV+ and hopefully I don’t forget any others.
So, I expect this to become the clear 2nd biggest revenue stream for Apple by 2025, as I expect this to grow more than 20% next year, mainly due to the Apple One Bundle and Apple Fitness+ followed up by a slightly decreasing growth, ending with a 10% increase in revenues in 2025.
I think this are fairly conservative base case scenarios for the revenues, as I expect them to continue to increase the other revenue streams and not have such a large percentage of the revenues coming from the iPhone sales as you can see in this chart.
In terms of expenses, I pretty much kept the same margins as in previous years, with a 68% expense ratio on product sales [ iPhone / iPad / Mac / WHA ] and 35% expense ratio on SERVICES, as this are way more lucrative.
In the past 3 years, the products gross margin was 32.7%, so I actually imply bigger expenses for the manufacturing and sales of products, as this is mostly impacted by the company’s supplier’s ability to make up for and demand, while for the services revenue, the gross margins for the last 3 years has been 63.5% on average, but I expect this to be more in-line with the 66% margin in this past year. So, if services manage to grow to about half the revenues from the iPhone, this will effectively double the gross revenues, as every buck gained in the service revenues account for 2$ in the product sales.
So, I expect the total revenues for Apple to increase from $274B in 2020 to over $440B by 2025, increasing by approximately 10%/year, while I will keep the expense ratio pretty much in-line and have them increasing by 11%/year, this would bring the total gross income for Apple to $177B, increasing mainly due to the services revenues as I said earlier. This growth is just above the 4year average, and below the 2018 levels, which we might see again with this 5G super-cycle and explosive growth in the services revenue.
I also think the company will continue to invest in both Capital Expenditure and Operating expenses.
I think the operating expenses will remain pretty much in line with the previous years, as this number has increased by 1% annually both in R&D and SG&A. So, I will keep the exact percentages from previous years, as I expect the revenue to increase, thus I don’t see a big increase percentage wise. This would account for over $60B in operating expenses by 2025 and over $11B in Capital Expenditures by 2025, as I expect this to increase, mainly due to the possible EV developments or investments in self-driving capabilities alongside other manufacturing capabilities. You can see that the Capex spending has been decreasing in the past years with just over $8.8B in payments for business acquisitions and the other traditional Capex spending. Some people may use the cash generated by investing activities as Capex, but that is more unreliable. I also can see the Capex going back up, so I wanted to be safe and implied a 10% growth.
This money would account for over $73B in expenses and would bring the profit for the company to almost $104B before interest and taxes.
Moving on, let’s see what interest income and expenses the company has had in the past few years. We can see a decrease in interest expense in the past few years as the company has been paying off debt, but they have also been generating less money in this department, with an overall decrease in this department of more than 50% in the past year, way less than the amount from 2018. So, for safety reasons, I used a 10% decline in both income and expenses related to interest, while increasing the other losses by 10%/year.
This would bring the company pre-tax income to just over $104B in 2025.
Let’s move on to taxes. I know the Federal income tax rate is 21% for the company, but the actual effective tax rate for the company was lower than 15% in the past year, mainly due to lower tax-rates on foreign earnings alongside tax-benefits and tax-settlements. The average effective tax rate has been just over 16% in the past 3 years, but with more and more of the revenues coming from outside the US, I think it’s safe to say that the company will have around a 15% effective tax rate by 2025, this obviously if nothing major changes in tax policy around the world.
So, Apple would have $88.6B in income after tax by 2025 and with the current outstanding shares standing at just under 17B, so I don’t even account for the company probably continuing to do share buybacks, this would mean a $5.22 future earnings/share. And with today’s price for Apple just around 136$, that would mean to company is trading at just over 26 times forward price to earnings.
I don’t think Apple will ever trade at a discount again, with the current PE standing at over 40, I believe this will eventually go down, probably to around 35, despite the increase in services revenue, which is highly valued by investors. I think we can see Apple trade somewhere near 35 times P/E in 2025, especially if something big happens with the EV project, this could be even higher, just look at Tesla which trades at insane P/E. Of course, we also have to take into consideration the dividends that will be received from owning the stock, as Apple has started to pay dividends almost a decade ago and has 9 years of dividend growth, with a 10% annual rate of growth in the past 5 years. Here is the dividend growth history for the company, as I also went conservative on this estimate and implied a 7% growth for the next 2 years, 6% for 2023 and 2024 and just 5% in 2025.
So here are my 3 price targets for the company, including dividends but not reinvested. My bear case scenario is that Apple will trade at almost 165$ which implies a return of over 21% by 2025, while my base case scenario would see Apple trading at 195$ with a return of capital of 43%. I will also make the bull case for Apple trading at 225$ by 2025 with dividends included, which would imply just over 65% in gains by then.
I think this is possible as Apple has also continued to buy back shares of the company on a constant basis, as they continue to an impressive campaign with over $72B worth of common stock repurchased in 2020. They continue to buy back shares at a very fast pace, having repurchased over 1.3B shares in 2019 and 2018, while also issuing less stock every year.
So here is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Apple by 2025 and the breakdown of everything i estimated [ 1 / 2 ] , if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Apple has had in the last 5years. The company has increased in value by more 400% in just the past 5years and is over 100.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against Apple?
The company also has pristine financials, with more than $65B in total assets compared to total liabilities, and more than $38B in cash and cash equivalents.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Apple?
Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the stock split, Apple saw a correction within the September stock market pullback, in a buy the news & sell the event, after a huge runup post-announcement of the stock split. The stock entered a consolidation period, and didn’t have any big catalysts, especially with new iPhone lineup not being included in the Q4 results due to the late launch. The stock found some levels of resistance near the $120 levels that it struggled to get past but acted also as support after breaking them just before the recent news of the possible EV developments or self-driving-features to be licensed to other car manufacturers. After that news the stock spiked and has now reached the previous highs made before the stock split and is facing some resistance, if the stock pushes over $140 I think we can officially say that it broke the resistance at those levels and is not just a fake-out. But I think it’s likely that the stock will consolidate between 122 and 135$ in the next weeks until the next iPhone sales and quarterly results are released, as the stock has entered overbought territory again with an RSI over 70, the first time since the stock split.
So, what would I do? Well, I own Apple stock, and I really believe this company will remain the biggest or one of the biggest in the future, so I would really add on any weakness that the stock shows before the next quarter earnings are released, as typically Q1 earnings are the best for the company due to increased holiday sales combined with the launch of new products. I think any entry below 130$ would be really nice to start and build a position or increase it if you already own the stock. As I believe Apple is one of the most stable stocks out there with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Berkshire owning over 900M shares each.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!
submitted by 0toHeroInvesting to stocks [link] [comments]

Some Services You Can Hire a Hacker to Do and How Much They cost (2021 Update)

Some Services You Can Hire a Hacker to Do and How Much They cost (2021 Update)

Some Services You Can Hire a Hacker to Do and How Much They cost (2021 Update)
Is it really possible to hire a hacker online? The answer is - YES!! There are a few hackers for hire services out there, and one of the best hackers out there is DataBurglar - Email: [email protected]
Who is a Hacker and What Can a Hacker Do?
  • A hacker can do everything from hijacking a corporate email account to draining millions of dollars from an online bank account.
  • Though many hackers may have malicious intent, some wear white hats and help companies find security holes and protect sensitive content.
  • Below we explore some of the many jobs a hacker can do for you.
Some parts of the web are the online equivalent of dark alleys where shady characters lurk in the shadows.
Are you afraid your spouse or partner is cheating on you? There's a hacker on the dark web who can get you into her email and social media accounts; that is if you don't mind sliding past legal or ethical boundaries.
These days you don't have to delve too deeply into the recesses of the dark web to find hackers — they're actually quite easy to find.
For instance, you can easily hire an ethical hacker on freelancer websites. These so-called "white hats" help protect your website from malicious attacks by identifying security holes and plugging them.
Other hacking sites openly advertise services of questionable legality, offering illicit access to everything from Skype and Gmail to your college grades. InsideHackers' warns in its Terms of Service that hacking is a "dangerous industry" and "very, very risky business."
According to a report, by Dell's SecureWorks, 5 years ago. They found that the underground marketplace is "booming" because hackers are "extending their hours, guaranteeing their work, and expanding their offerings" to lure in customers.
Whether you're in need of a hacker or just curious about the industry, here are seven hacks for sale right now and what they may cost, according to the SecureWorks report and other advertisements on the web.
Note: Prices are listed in US dollars, but some hackers prefer to be paid in Bitcoin.
1. Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack: $500 - $2,500: Kaspersky Labs reports that the average price for a DDoS attack is $25 per hour. According to Kaspersky, you can pay just $50 for a five-minute attack and $3,000 to overwhelm a server, blocking legitimate users, for a whole day. The SecureWorks report quotes a slightly lower price of $50 an hour or $2,500 per day.
2. Website and Database Hack: Hire a legit hacker to provide a genuine hacker for hire service. Hack websites, hack databases, delete unwanted content from the internet, and google search results.
3. Recovery of Funds Lost to Scammers: Have you lost money to binary options, forex, or investment scam? Recover all your scammed bitcoin, stolen cryptocurrency, and money lost to cryptocurrency trading or investment scam. You can also recover money lost to a romance scam and other types of scam.
4. Social Media Account Hack: You can access any social media account including Instagram, Twitter, Snapchat, or other social media platforms, The average hacker fee for this kind of service is about $1,200.
5. Email Hack: $500 and up. While the price to hack a Gmail, Yahoo, or Hotmail account is $800, according to SecureWorks, the report pegs the fee for corporate email hacking at $950 per mailbox. Some of the popular ways of compromising an email account usually involve phishing, which requires sending phony emails masquerading as a known partner to steal usernames, passwords, financial data, or other sensitive information. Corporate email hacking drained over $676 million from company coffers in 2017, according to the FBI's Internet Crime Report.
6. Break into a cell phone: If you're looking to monitor an Android device or an iPhone, you can rely on the DataBurglar cell phone spy app to hack and monitor the phone. DataBurglar offers a lot of different features, including GPS tracking and sound recording. The app tracks the hacked phone's information even when the phone's offline, and once it's connected to the internet, all tracked info is uploaded right into your account.
One of the main advantages DataBurglar offers is that you do not need to have the target phone in your hand to install the spyware app onto it. When you hire a cell phone hacker, he or she can access the phone remotely, which, according to one Quora user, could cost between $500 and $5,000
7. Grade Change: You can hire a hacker to hack a university portal and change your grades. You can also get examination questions and answers to help you prepare adequately for your examination. In addition to the above-mentioned possibilities, you can also change your transcript to make it a lot better. All you need is the right person to deliver the job.
When it comes to hiring a trusted hacker, that is guaranteed to deliver all your hack requests to your satisfaction, your best bet remains DataBurglar. Email - [email protected]
The original article was first published on businessinsider.com, but this is the most recent update, providing you up-to-date information.
submitted by Babyelijah to u/Babyelijah [link] [comments]

The Trump Campaign's Accusations of Voter Fraud: An Exhaustive Analysis and Fact Check

Full disclosure: I'm not a Trump fan in the slightest. I don't spend an extraordinary amount of time talking about that fact on Reddit; but some of my comments do indeed express this view, either by way of serious commentary or lighthearted joking.
At the same time, I take impartial analysis and fact checking extremely seriously. I always push back against weak and/or unfounded accusations that are made against Trump, as I do for all other political figures — something I've done both on this account and on FactCheckHuman, my dedicated fact checking account.
Usually, my fact checks don't run much more than a couple of paragraphs. In some instances, though, I've done ultra–deep dives into an issue. This current post can certainly be considered one of these. As with any other fact check, the ultimate aim of these write-ups is simply to determine what is or isn't true; or what is or isn't likely to be true.
At the same time, this post also genuinely intends to persuade people of the speciousness and toxicity of the Trump campaign's current claims about voter fraud. To tell the truth, I kind of approached it as a synthesis of conversations I've been having with my conservative friends and family members, who are really on board with the Trump position on election integrity.
In any case, not everything is as simple as finding the facts and evidence, and letting these speak for themselves. Ideally that's how we want things to be; but often times there are a number of ambiguities that prevent this from being done so easily, in terms of varying interpretations that the evidence permits. In these instances, we basically have to make a reasonable judgment call about what's likely to be the case: educated guesses that try to fill in some of the gaps in the evidence.
Even here, though, I try to be similarly rigorous, and take a lead from what I call critical parsimony. In short, this tries to find the most "normal" and least sensational/conspiratorial explanation for something, while also bearing in mind some of the complexities and anomalies that might complicate the issue. Often times, these two different or seemingly contradictory aspects come together when we encounter some event or phenomenon that superficially seems exceptional and counterintuitive, but which turns out to be much less unusual than it appears to be. In short, this allows extraordinary events to be, well, rare.
In line with that last point, one of the most insightful things we can look at is events and situations, usually from the recent past, which can help contextualize and elucidate various things that have taken place in the current election — and things which have taken place in terms of people's reaction to this. So things like looking back to the 2016 or 2012 election can be crucial here, or other historical events that can give precedent for what's happening in 2020, and shed light on it.
I suppose the most obvious point of departure for this post is what we might describe as a main "narrative" that Donald Trump and the Trump campaign and its supporters have advanced in response to the election itself: that the election has been unusually fraught with irregularities and duplicitous/fraudulent intentions. Responsibility for these irregularities have almost always been placed at the feet of Democrats, and is clearly taken to represent an effort on Democrats' part to steal the election.
Obviously, I think a lot of Trump supporters and conservatives have accepted this narrative more or less at face value. Even before getting into some of the actual specifics of the claims of voter fraud, though, one thing that I've called attention to from the outset is how we might first consider the initial motivations behind the narrative itself a bit more critically, and how it comes together in the first place.
Not to get too philosophical or anything, but it's worth pointing out that whenever we have a political "narrative" like this, it's somewhat of an artificial construct. A bunch of different phenomena or allegations are brought together and crammed into one explanatory framework. Nuance or ambiguity becomes something secondary to promoting the narrative. Far too often, the cast is full of stereotyped protagonists and antagonists, divided along party lines.
Further, it's important not to lose sight of everything that's paved the way for such a bitter partisan narrative to emerge in the first place. The electoral process itself probably never been neutral affair, and is still intensely partisan in numerous aspects — from the emergence of the Electoral College itself, to the crafting and enforcing of state voting laws and guidelines. At lower levels, issues of gerrymandering have been a serious problem; and at all levels, different political parties have fought in the courts to try to influence voter eligibility and voter turnout in their own favor.
In tandem with this, beyond the judiciary itself, political parties also wage many of these same battles in the court of public opinion.
In this current instance, the overarching narrative in question — of Democrat attempts to unlawfully steal the election — indeed seems to target public opinion above all else. And it far predates the 2020 election itself, too. Even before running in 2015, Trump had previously suggested that President Obama's original election was assisted by fraudulent votes being cast by dead voters. During the 2016 Iowa caucus, Trump accused Ted Cruz and his campaign of having committed fraud, and called for a "new election" or that the results be nullified; and he leveled a similar accusation against Marco Rubio in the Florida primary, too.
In August of 2016, regarding the general election, Trump claimed that "[t]he only way we can lose . . . Pennsylvania . . . is if cheating goes on." He continued to frequent challenge the integrity of the election leading up to November; and even after his victory, he stated that he "won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally" — implying there had been upwards of 3 million "illegal" votes. Very closely echoing what we'd see in 2020, after the 2018 Florida Senatorial election, Trump stated that "[t]he Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!"
In May and June 2020, Trump began ramping up claims that fraudulent mail-in ballots would be printed in vast droves, both by domestic entities and "maybe by the millions by foreign powers." Again, this would be insisted on time and time again; and finally, echoing his sentiments in late November 2016, on November 7 Trump declared that "I WON THIS ELECTION, BY A LOT!", and later reiterating that he received 71,000,000 "legal" votes. (An exhaustive catalogue of Trump's allegations re: voter fraud can be found here.)
It's hard to deny that Trump's public-facing view has always proposed voter fraud and irregularities as ubiquitous things affecting a large number of elections. But it's precisely the one-sidedness of his seeing monsters in every shadow here that points toward another explanation. Trump's accusatory or even paranoid worldview can be seen as something like a microcosm reflecting a much wider trend in historical political rhetoric around elections.
Even when Trump is taken out of the picture altogether, the propagandistic function of allegations of election fraud has still been frequently noted by a number of scholars and historians who specialize in election studies. In a 2007 paper for the Brennan Center for Justice at the NYU School of Law, for example, American constitutional law scholar Justin Levitt calls attention to the emotional resonance that claims of voter fraud can elicit — and also notes its prevalence because of this:
Allegations of election-related fraud make for enticing press. Voter fraud, in particular, has the feel of a bank heist caper: roundly condemned but technically fascinating, and sufficiently lurid to grab and hold headlines. Perhaps because these stories are dramatic, voter fraud makes a popular scapegoat. In the aftermath of a close election, losing candidates are often quick to blame voter fraud for the results, and legislators cite voter fraud as justification for various new restrictions on the exercise of the franchise. ("The Truth About Voter Fraud," abstract)
Similarly, Raymond Gastil, writing in an article in the journal Studies In Comparative International Development in 1990, noted that
in many new or transitional countries, it is standard practice for the opposition to point out before the election how the government will "steal" the election. If the opposition loses, it will then make strenuous claims that the election was stolen. Thus the ARENA party in El Salvador has claimed fraud in each of the several elections in the 1980s; most recently it won the election and yet claimed that it was robbed of the greater win to which it was entitled. Claims and counterclaims of this nature are seldom subject to verification, even for those on the ground.
Although the U.S. obviously isn't a new or transitional country, it's impossible not to see close parallels to the accusations of Trump here — especially the similarity between the claim of having been "robbed of the greater win to which it was entitled" and Trump sweetening his electoral win by insisting that he won the popular vote, too, so long as "illegal" votes are deducted from the tally.
But when these claims are put to the test, in actuality, scholarly studies have long demonstrated that the prevalence of true voter fraud in general in U.S. elections is minuscule. A Brennan Center for Justice special report on voter fraud compiles and links to many if not most major studies on voter fraud in the U.S., concluding that together these studies paint a clear picture that voter fraud "very rarely happens." (See also my Endnote for more on this.)
So, statistics paints a much different picture than political rhetoric would have us believe.
If the bogeyman here is more of a phantasm than anything, however, it's still a powerful tool for influencing electorates: "voter fraud and voter suppression allegations are strongly used as a mobilization tool by parties during significant elections (Hasen, 2012; Levitt, 2007)." (This quote is taken from Fogarty, Kimball and Kosnik's article "The Media, Voter Fraud, and the U.S. 2012 Elections," published in the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. This article is especially worth reading to get a bit more background about some of the things that set the stage for the 2016 and 2020 elections and their rhetoric.)
One last thing: Population growth and other factors have led to a vastly increased number of voters over the past couple of decades. In 2000, just a little over 100 million people voted, while in the current election this number went up to 130 million. Further, the transition to electronic voting and the use of tabulating machines has increased significantly during this time, too.
Because of these things — all further complicated by COVID this year — both statistics and common wisdom alone should lead us to expect a large number of voting irregularities. But it's also important not to conflate irregularities with voter fraud. Irregularities are simply errors, that don't necessarily require bad human intentions at all. However, with realpolitik at its ugly peak in the election cycle, this offers an opportunity for political pundits to read deliberate ill intentions into these incidents, whether by innuendo or explicit accusation. But it should also be kept in mind that if irregularities are unintentional, and if political affiliation in the U.S. is split roughly equally, then these irregularities should also affect the two political parties roughly equally; probably in similar proportions.
Finally, the increasing partisan divide between media outlets, along with their selective coverage, probably makes it easy to overlook (or perhaps forget) the great number of lawsuits routinely filed by both Democratic and Republican attorneys, both in the lead-up to the election and in the wake of its inevitable irregularities: efforts to block or secure votes from voting populations likely to favor one or the other of the two parties. It should be clear here, then, that an overemphasis on irregularities and claims and fraud are often treated as rhetorical and legal tools in service of political self-interests.
With all these things considered — and again, even if we set the political situation in 2020 aside, along with some of the specific claims of voter fraud that are currently being made — this should still give us ample reason to rethink how accusations of voter fraud function more broadly: what's in it for those making these accusations, politically speaking; how these claimants often see little use for factual accuracy or measured analysis here; and how this perpetuates toxic discourse and bad-faith assumptions.
Claims of Election Irregularities and Fraud in 2020: A Catalogue and Commentary
So this second part of the post is going to be a sort of compendium of a lot of the major allegations of voting irregularities and voter fraud that have been circulating, followed by a critical analysis of these. While some of these irregularities are clearly broad and would affect both political parties, I'm pretty sure that almost every one of these claims has circulated widely in conservative and/or pro-Trump sources; and most have been interpreted as a partisan attack on election integrity. I'm sure that there have been other incidents or alleged incidents that have circulated on the left; but this post is already extremely long and took quite a while to write, and I don't want to make more work for myself.
I'll probably be updating this in the days to come, as more info on various things comes out.
Finally, as a sort of transition point between my probably-far-too-long prologue and the catalogue, I think it can be very instructive to take a look at a compendium of voting irregularities in 2016 — to help get some additional context and perspective for how similar issues can and did surface in the 2020 election.
Claim: It's suspicious how additional Biden votes have kept magically appearing, long after election day, pushing his total over Trump's prior total.
Response: I've put this in the initial position because it seems to be one of the most common observations of accusations: it was one of the first that Trump made, and which he continued to repeat. But among all the different accusations here, this has one of the most mundane explanations.
Prior to the election itself, and noting various state laws pertaining to the tabulation of mail-in votes, various commentators called attention to a likely phenomenon of delayed results for mail-in ballots — which have skewed heavily Democrat. Dave Wassermann noted, for example, that
in northern battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin . . . officials are not permitted to begin processing mail ballots until the day of the election (or, in Michigan's case, the day before). In those states, a "red mirage" of Trump-heavy Election Day votes could linger until larger metro counties report huge tranches of early ballots later in the evening.
(As for mail-in votes skewing highly Democrat, this also has mundane explanations. For reasons that are less than clear, on numerous occasions Trump strongly discouraged his supporters from voting by mail. Unfortunately I don't have the room to fully get into this, though there's certainly some interesting/surprising data about just how overwhelmingly blue mail-in voting skewed even in a number of red strongholds.)
Further, sometimes this claim has appeared in the bit more specific iteration, suggesting that it wasn't just suspicious how Biden votes kept coming in to counteract Trump's tally, but also how precisely Biden's total crept past Trump — as if it was known exactly how many votes Biden needed to just barely scrape past him. But this also has a deceptively simple explanation: the extremely slim margin of victory for Biden in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania basically mirrored the same ultra-slim margin of victory for Trump in these same states in 2016, but now just the other way around. Honing in on PA, for example, we can also see how Biden just marginally outperformed Clinton in terms of cutting into Trump's lead in many red areas.
Even the 2016 election in Georgia saw a significant blue shift, especially in the Atlanta metropolitan area — which presaged Biden's performance in 2020, also bolstered by the efforts of those like Stacey Abrams to register an enormous number of new GA voters.
Claim: Some counties saw a suspicious or even impossible ratio of votes for Biden.
Response: The most widespread claim of this pertained to Michigan returns as posted by Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) in the early morning of November 4. A screenshot of the returns at two different times here appeared to show the DDHQ vote tally for Biden go up by 128,000 votes from the previous update, but with no change at all to Trump's total.
Later that morning, it was clear what had happened: shortly after the original entry error (in Shiawassee County), DDHQ had subtracted the erroneous inflated vote update for Biden — something that obviously required no alteration of the tally for Trump. However, the screenshot that circulated gave the misleading impression that it was an addition of Biden votes, instead of a subtraction. (My original detailed explanation of this can be seen on FactCheckHuman/.)
A similar claim has been made around the same time in the Wisconsin totals. Here a chart is linked, and it's suggested that there was a huge vertical surge of votes for Biden in the hour or so before 6:00 am, but with no change at all in Trump votes. But the explanation here is almost goofy in its simplicity: as seen at other points in the chart, the blue Biden line actually covers the red Trump line at various points. The big vertical Biden vote jump in question is almost certainly simply covering up a smaller vertical jump for Trump, and then continues to obscure it until it ends (otherwise we'd be able to see the horizontal trajectory of the red line). I've lost the original source of this, but I had actually saved another chart which shows the same phenomenon of big vertical leaps, only this time with the red Trump line obscuring the blue Biden line.
Claim: The significantly lower number of total votes for Democratic Senators compared to Biden votes in individual states is indicative of something sketchy — when compared to the much smaller mismatch between Trump/Senator votes.
Response: Several articles — e.g. "Swing States Show Biden Votes Suspiciously Far Exceeding Democrat Down-Ticket Votes" — note that there was a significant difference in the ratio of Trump votes to GOP Senator votes in Michigan and Georgia (nearly an equal number of votes in both), compared with the ratio of Biden votes relative to votes for the Democrat Senator in these states (significantly lower).
But this seems to be part of a wider trend of Democrats failing to pay a similar interest in down-ballot candidates. In the 2016 Georgia election, the ratio difference was significantly more drastic: 2,089,104 votes for Trump and 2,135,806 for Isakson, versus 1,877,963 for Clinton but only 1,599,726 for Barksdale — some 275,000 fewer votes for Barksdale than for Clinton. In Wisconsin, there were nearly 75,000 more votes for Ron Johnson than Trump, but 20,000 fewer for Russ Feingold. In PA in 2016, there were 20,000 fewer votes for the GOP Senator as for Trump, compared to 60,000 fewer for the Democratic Senate candidate than for Clinton. (Surprisingly, I haven't been able to find any commentary on this phenomenon. If anyone knows any, please direct me to it.)
Presumably having tabulated similar data from the other states, Trump attorney Sidney Powell has recently noted that there were 450,000 ballots "in the key states that miraculously only have a mark for Joe Biden on them and no other candidate." But based on what I've noted above, I'd be willing to bet that this isn't truly miraculous. Also, as a fascinating fact, in the 2016 election, 1.75 million (!) voters refrained from voting for a Presidential candidate entirely, only voting down-ballot. And frankly, I find it easier to imagine someone only voting for a Presidential candidate, than only voting down-ballot.
Claim: There have been over 3,000 instances of voter fraud in Nevada, with non-NV residents voting in the NV election.
Response: According to the official Nevada Secretary of State site, "Nevada residents who are students in another state or are otherwise temporarily residing in another state may vote in the 2020 Nevada general election." Similarly, apparently a look at the complete list of 3,000+ voters here turns up a number of overseas military personnel; though when I took a look at that, I didn't really see many. Even further, a fact check of this same claim by PolitiFact also notes that "[p]eople who move within 30 days before an election can cast a vote in their new state, or in their prior state of residence, in-person or via absentee ballot." (In this regard, one of the statements by former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt may also be of interest, which was a bit more specific in noting that "[w]e are also certain there are thousands of people whose votes have been counted who have moved out of Clark County during the pandemic" — emphasis mine.)
Finally, perhaps also worth noting is that there are actually allegations of irregularities in the attainment of information in the first place — at least in the version of the criminal referral to AG William Barr that Trump campaign spokesperson Tim Murtaugh submitted.
Claim: The votes of those in Arizona who filled out a ballot by hand using a Sharpie were/would be invalidated.
Response: Various Arizona county officials have disputed that this would automatically invalidate a vote. That being said, there are indeed reports of tabulating machines rejecting votes after voters used Sharpies and noted a bleed-through of the ink. This finds some additional support from the official Pima County Twitter, where it was written that "[f]elt pens are discouraged because the ink can bleed through." However, another source states that
According to a video Maricopa County published on Oct. 24, Sharpies — at home and at the ballot box — are compatible with their scanners, and were actually the best choice for filling out ballots, due to their fast-drying ink.
Claim Some of the votes of those in Maricopa County, Arizona were rejected due to stray marks or (possibly) ink bleed-through; yet some poll workers seemed unable to help voters remedy this and cast a valid vote, due to their own confusion about how the tabulating machines worked.
Response: This is the subject of a lawsuit by the Trump campaign and RNC, etc.; and from a cursory read of the complaint, it seems to be well-founded. I have no clue what the remedy for this would be, though.
Claim: Poll workers have seen brazenly filling out ballots themselves.
Response: Several PolitiFact fact checks (1, 2) have already covered this. In short, it's standard operating procedure for the voting choices of damaged ballots to be transferred/transcribed onto a new, non-damaged ballot. This can even happen on a massive scale, as this report on the 2012 Florida election notes:
During the election, the county’s ballot printer sent out around 60,000 absentee ballots with a typo that could not be read by the county’s tabulation machines. Because of this mistake, county workers had to copy about 35,000 of the votes by hand onto new ballots.
This also intersects with Arizona's SharpieGate slightly: one fact check re: SharpieGate noted that
According to the state's elections procedures manual, if a felt-tip pen mark does bleed through, the ballot will likely get sent for duplication. An election worker will fill out a new ballot using the voter's choices that will be read properly by tabulation machines.
I'm not sure what measures are in place to ensure that the poll workers don't switch the votes in these instances (besides any poll observers who could see this); but in any case, the "risk" of one's vote being switched seems to be equal for Democrat and Republican voters — something that was also noted by the Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich (Republican).
In any case, as for more on spoiled ballots: a Project Veritas article (which I can't link due to a Reddit-wide ban) claims that its journalists had found 8 to 10 spoiled ballots in Quakertown, PA. I'm mentioning this here because I had been sort of curious what's supposed to be done with spoiled ballots; and apparently, as the article notes, "Pennsylvania law requires spoiled ballots to be held for 22 months after an election." I know a 22 months retention for some election materials is indeed found in federal law, though I haven't seen anything else that specifies what's to be done with spoiled ballots.
Claim(s): Donald Trump and others shared reports that there had been some sort of unspecified reporting error in a batch of votes in Fulton County, GA. Later it was stated in ambiguous language on ABC7's Twitter account that this reporting error "has taken @JoeBiden's lead in Georgia from 4,000 votes to 7,000 votes." This was interpreted by many to mean that the (correction of this) error was actually in Biden's favor.
Response: What actually appears to have happened is that the reporting error pertained to votes within the batch that originally had given Biden a 3,000 vote lead — but it wasn't that there were actually 3,000 votes that were mistabulated. The true number of affected votes within the batch appears to have been 342; and there's actually no information as to what the Biden/Trump split here was.
Claim: Glitches in voting machine software should cause things like crashes, and not the sort of vote switching that's been reported.
Response: Due to the complicated nature of some of the tabulation errors, etc., news reports have sometimes mistakenly ascribed these to software glitches — when later, more accurate info comes out which gives other causes. For example, a Detroit Free Press article originally suggested that the results of a local race in Oakland County, MI had been overturned when it was discovered that a "computer error" or "technical glitch" had accidentally given votes to the Democratic candidate, and not the Republican one.
But an article in the NYTimes from yesterday actually reiterates how this and several other reported errors actually have human error as the primary or sole cause here. Re: that local election in Oakland County, it notes that
County election workers had mistakenly counted votes from the city of Rochester Hills, Mich., twice, according to the Michigan Department of State. The workers later spotted the error.
That being said, it's also not exactly true that things like vote-flipping can only be caused by human error. In the section "The Challenge of Aging Machines" in a 2014 Brennan Center report on voting machine risks, for example, this discusses instances of vote-flipping that come from calibration errors caused by touch screens that shift and degrade over time. An NPR article from 2016 makes similar observations, while also reporting on how this led to widespread accusations of these votes instead being deliberately "rigged."
[Edit:] I figured it was worth it to actually expand this section by looking back at incidents prior to 2020 wherein one candidate's votes were mistakenly given to another (and other related phenomena) in initial tallies — whether this was due to human error, machine error, or sometimes both in conjunction.
It's actually somewhat hard to paint a comprehensive picture of previous Election Night reporting errors like this. Those having never made the news in the first place were probably quickly forgotten. Perhaps there's a trove of early reports of these left to be (re)discovered on Twitter; but this can only take us back so far, considering its fairly recent rise in popularity. However, we can still find records of these in various publications. This internal report by CBS News on its Election Night 2000 coverage, discussing the reporting of votes from various FL counties, for examples, notes that
Vote reports from Volusia County severely understated Gore’s actual total when a faulty computer memory card reported votes that were off by thousands. That precinct, Number 216, subtracted more than 16,000 votes from Gore’s total and added votes to Bush’s total. In addition, an apparent reporting error in Brevard County reduced Gore’s total by an additional 4,000 votes.
It also briefly notes other errors, too, such as
In Massachusetts, 30,000 votes were left uncounted in 51 precincts because of human error.
In New Mexico, election officials thought that a handwritten notation about absentee votes from one precinct indicated 120 votes for Gore, when the actual number was 620.
An article in the Denver Post re: the 2016 Colorado primary notes "a reporting error on caucus night":
The problem . . . occurred when a volunteer at Byers Middle School in Denver punched the wrong vote tallies from 10 precincts into the party’s interactive voice response system for the presidential preference poll.
The state party’s website reported March 1 that Sanders won 14,624 votes, or 54 percent, in Denver County and Clinton took 12,097 votes, or 45 percent.
But the corrected numbers for Denver County give Sanders 15,194 votes, or 56.5 percent, and Clinton with 11,527, or 43 percent, according to official party results.
A Brennan Center report on voting machine failures includes a very long list of human and machine errors in various U.S. elections. Among some of the most significant of those listed include the 2002 Alabama gubernatorial election, where
The Birmingham News and the New York Times reported that an error in the way officials downloaded vote data from a computer cartridge led to an incorrect initial tally of votes in the gubernatorial election. The initial tally of the votes showed that the Democratic incumbent had received 19,070 votes in Baldwin County. A reexamination of the vote tallies showed that the incumbent received only 12,736 votes, which gave the victory to his Republican challenger.
Further, in the 2004 Presidential and congressional elections,
local officials discovered an error in eight Diebold scanners that had been used on 208,446 absentee ballots. According to the North County Times, votes were miscounted in both the Democratic presidential primary race and the primary race for the Republican U.S. Senate seat. A recount was conducted, revealing that “2,821 absentee ballots cast for Democratic presidential hopeful John Kerry were actually counted for Dick Gephardt.” Similarly, in the Senate race, 68 votes for one candidate and six votes for another were credited to a third candidate. The Union Tribune reported that multiple scanners caused the error, feeding data into the tabulation system at once.
An article on irregularities in the 2018 midterms in GA begins
To find a clue about what might have gone wrong with Georgia’s election last fall, look no further than voting machine No. 3 at the Winterville Train Depot outside Athens.
On machine No. 3, Republicans won every race. On each of the other six machines in that precinct, Democrats won every race.
Claim: A very serious instance of (electronic) vote-flipping has taken place in Antrim County, MI, where 6,000 Trump votes were accidentally flipped to Biden. This has been one of the most widely reported instances recently, usually accompanied by a note that 47 other counties in Michigan used the same faulty software as that responsible for the vote-flipping in Antrim County.
Response: More accurately, the actual votes themselves weren't switched at all here; and for that matter, the error seems to have been more human than electronic. What appears to have happened is that a county clerk hadn't manually updated the software which was responsible for compiling the votes for reporting; and consequently, "even though the tabulators counted all the ballots correctly, those accurate results were not combined properly when the clerk reported unofficial results."
[Edit:] A while after writing this, by chance I came across some more info which either sheds more light on all this, or makes the whole thing a bit more complicated (or both). According to this AP article, the President of the company who made the voting software explained that "a minor correction was made to a ballot that caused additional compounding changes to how the software totals and presented the data"; and an article in the NYTimes similarly states that election security experts and state officials concluded "that an election worker had configured ballot scanners and reporting systems with slightly different versions of the ballot."
Claim: There was suspicious activity around items and containers brought into a Detroit absentee ballot counting center in the early hours of November 4, after the deadline for these to arrive.
Response: This claim — including video footage and pictures — was shared by Eric Trump; and in it it's been intimated that these were fraudulent absentee ballots. However, the man in the video footage has been identified as an employee of Detroit's ABC affiliate WXYZ; and the items in question were his camera equipment.
I'm right at the character limit here — continuing in a comment below.
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