In relation to Australia and its censorship, will online games be banned?
According to Stephen Conroy, all items which will have RC (refused classification) will be blocked with Australia's installation of the pirated version of China's Firewall. Does this mean online games (such as WoW, EvE, LoTR Online), which aren't classified in Australia, will be apart of the list? I know it's all speculation at this point, but it does raise the question; where does it all end? Having Stephen Conroy in control of this is like a muggle being in charge of the Ministry of Magic.
"I think I've lived long enough to see competitive Counter-Strike as we know it, kill itself." Summary of Richard Lewis' stream (Long)
I want to preface that the contents of this post is for informational purposes. I do not condone or approve of any harassments or witch-hunting or the attacking of anybody.
Richard Lewis recently did a stream talking about the terrible state of CS esports and I thought it was an important stream anyone who cares about the CS community should listen to. Vod Link here: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/830415547 I realize it is 3 hours long so I took it upon myself to create a list of interesting points from the stream so you don't have to listen to the whole thing, although I still encourage you to do so if you can. I know this post is still long but probably easier to digest, especially in parts. Here is a link to my raw notes if you for some reason want to read through this which includes some omitted stuff. It's in chronological order of things said in the stream and has some time stamps. https://pastebin.com/6QWTLr8T
Intro
"The last month has convinced me, that we are going to be heading into a dark place for Counter-Strike esports in 2021."
"I think I've seen the scene essentially kill itself."
"For the past 5 to 6 years, we've basically been in a holding pattern of people coming into our game wanting to run it, wanting to run all of the esports and wanting to profiteer and its been sort of a concerted effort to drive them off and push them away."
"We're spread way too thin."
"If Riot don't get involved and stop the scumbags that have moved over to Valorant from getting their feet under the table, Valorant is going to have real problems."
RL thinks too much has happened all at once for us to do anything except watch it play out, like:
Recent CSPPA strike against BLAST
ESIC failures and them not being supported enough
Teams cheating i.e. coaches/bugs
Widespread match fixing
The Pandemic
"People who try to hold bubble events are so incompetent and fuck up and people get the 'rona and its their fault."
"People who say Flashpoint is a bubble is full of shit and is a lie and people are now suffering for that lie."
"To save money they let people go home and break the bubble for a week."
"Not just Flashpoint peoples decision, they have a partner that handles the production." (hinting FACEIT)
"People are trapped in hotels essentially under house arrest because of COVID restrictions and has fucked peoples lives up."
"It's all too much, all of this incompetence, all of this greed, maybe we ride it out."
RL says he has talked to the Riot devs (the ones working on Valorant) and says, "They are so cognizant of all the fuck ups and all the problems we have in Counter-Strike."
He continues to say that this is factored into their business plan and that we never had a competitor, but just so happens to have one coincide, when we are at our worst.
CSPPA - Counter-Strike Professional Players' Association
"Who does this union really fucking serve?"
RL believes that the CSPPA is a mockery.
He points out the hypocrisy that they wouldn't strike for the pros who were kicked out of ESL Pro League, or for Jamppi or dream3r.
He also says ESL paid CSPPA and are racketeering and many other TOs have to pay them to get their "seal of approval"
He says they would strong-arm TOs saying "well if you don't give us the money, these guys are so we'll just have to commit to playing their event."
Also points out that they will strike against a competitor they are not in agreement with (Flashpoint)
RL: "It's what it says about every other time you haven't done it and it's about every time you don't do it now moving forward." "The issues they've chosen to ignore this year alone are embarrassing."
Then he points out that there was no strike for Valve qualifiers even if we have no major but Jamppi and dream3r can't play in them.
"and Valve have said 'Oh yeah we know actually their stories are accurate, Jamppi didn't cheat, now in a legally binding document. Yep dream3r did have his account hacked in a LAN café', but they still can't play. Where is the fucking solidarity? Gone. Doesn't exist. It's not important [because] it doesn't affect you." "That's what the union does right now, it looks after all the tier 1 people."
He says the CSPPA doesn't represent all players all the time and has driven a divide where you have the haves and have-nots
"We have a tier of players that operate with impunity and do not help their tier 2 or tier 3 players out at all." "If you are not a tier 1 player you do not matter, they don't event ask your opinion."
He tells chrisJ to admit and own the fact that the reason he didn't speak up during the ESL Pro League debacle is because it didn't affect him
"They are looking after some players at the expense of other players. How the fuck is that a union?"
He says the BLAST situation is a reasonable dispute and supports the players but is not the right time for a strike and have not even identified the correct enemy
He thinks players are lashing out now due to previous incidents and are upset that BLAST are working with ESIC
He stated that CSPPA shouldn't beefing with ESIC and they should be working in harmony
He says what they need to do is talk with the teams/organizations that have sold that right to BLAST
RL: "Your employers, the people who pay you that massive exorbitant salaries, when you don't stream and you don't do interviews and you offer no value beyond your ability to click heads and you get 25k dollars a month." "Why don't you talk to them about it? Oh right. You're happy to take away BLAST's paper, but you don't want to risk your own."
"I am seeing such unbelievable cowardice from the players here with the battles you choose."
"Where was the strike action when in the qualifiers for the world championship, there were teams and players engaged in huge conflicts of interest?" "Where was the strike action when your image rights were taken and sold to every league you've ever been in every union type organization you've ever been associated with like, WESA, to your org every time you sign a contract, to the leagues you play in."
"Your image rights are essentially worthless now, there's about 10 fucking separate parties that have them, and how many of them are giving you anything for it? Not much pretty much your org by the way."
"That's a big issue. Your image is you, your image is your brand. What are you doing about that? Nothing."
He is also angry at SirScoots who is "popping off" at people on Twitter who all want the same thing, which is 'A unified Counter-Strike scene for everybody, that works for everybody, that has a sustained ecosystem that nourishes everybody.' "We don't have that now."
He also says their rankings are a joke
"Just so happened, oh look TACO, that very important prominent member of the board, we pushed his team artificially up when they weren't even in the fucking top 20, not by a long shot."
He also says the ineptitude of the CSPPA cost Flashpoint a monitor sponsor
"Is it really a player association or is it like a fucking agency at this point"
ESIC - Esports Integrity Commission
"They have been put in an impossible position."
RL says that Ian Smith, the founder of ESIC and who was done work in mainstream sports, is a good and honorable man who has dedicated his life to integrity and sports. He takes on both sides, ensuring match fixers are punished, but also doing appeals and ensuring those punishments were fair.
"ESIC is a tiny organization" and are in need of money, "They didn't run a grift like the CSPPA did."
"Saying 'you want our support and you want the players to turn up you better pay us.' They don't do that."
"Had startup seed money from MTG and since then they've been pecking shit with the hens."
Ian Smith made sure that the money given by MTG (Modern Times Group, parent company of ESL, ESEA, DreamHack) was nothing more than startup money and wouldn't be in debt to them
Ian Smith sat down with other TO's not part of MTG and wanted to partner with them. They declined and called ESIC "ESL spies and we will never align ourselves with you"
"They only were just able to afford, hiring a PR guy on a full time salary to deal with the press and send out those releases you've seen, this year."
"They have a tiny group of staff investigating these things and they have taken on the biggest problems in our scene: the cheating, the match fixing."
ESIC have had "unprecedented levels of cheating to deal with, because there's something wrong with our scene ever since we went online. There's something wrong with it, everyone's lost their fucking pride and self-respect and they got no passion for it anymore, so they think fuck it, what's in it for me?"
He calls out coaches who are talking about players rights when they would rob and steal from them.
Also says more coaches being banned are coming
He also points out flaws in community's reaction to the punishments to coaches bans: "Half of the cunts still have jobs and some of the cunts got new jobs. We didn't even shun the cheating coaches."
ESIC have "found I think another 2 or 3 exploits like that one and they are investigating them all right now, it's going on right now."
"I know that there are going to be more names getting banned, again."
"So they're doing that on a skeleton crew while, investigating 3 continents worth of match fixing in MDL and semi-pro level CS." "They're doing this with half a dozen people." "They don't have any money or any help. People barely even fucking cooperate with them, they are treated like pariahs. It's ridiculous."
"Why are the CSPPA popping off at ESIC on my Twitter timeline, when you should be working together." "because its all about what's in it in for me." "2020, the online era of CS: 'What is in it for me?' How can I cheat, how can I get my paper, how can I bleed this scene one last time before I fuck off and play shooty shooty bang bang Riot Games babys first fps."
RL says that in the CIS region, teams have gone to tournaments and have been eliminated multiple times by the same team. We found out they were cheating and those players who lost, have been cut from their roster, careers ended because of cheaters.
Stream Sniping
"They're all at it in the online era, they're all at it, they're all cheating, they're all using exploits, probably that see through smoke bug got used a bunch of times"
RL talks about how there is no integrity from dead (the player), always denying when caught doing something
On the topic of 'BLAST never said we couldn't stream snipe': "Lies, BLAST never said you could do that, they had to sort of retcon it." "because what happened after that they fucking started snitching and squealing"
"Suddenly you had like, 10 of the top 15 teams in the world, staring into the abyss of being banned for 6-12 months in line with ESIC recommendations."
He says that ESIC was put in a tough situation and couldn't enforce the bans because it would have resulted in killing CS. What resulted was, BLAST, ESIC, and teams came together and gave them a warning and told them, in RL's words "don't do this again or you're gonna get got."
He then says the top teams brushed this off and didn't give a fuck
The new MiBR team playing Flashpoint, that wasn't involved in the previous incidents are doing it again (stream sniping). He gave credit to Flashpoint for the quick resolution and punishment and respect for cogu's response to the situation.
"ESIC came out and said, once more, 'Guys, zero tolerance from now on.'" RL then got upset at community's reaction calling ESIC "pussies" for their non enforcement and said if we want competitive CS we cant ban the top 10 teams.
He points out how players have no integrity and will do anything for an edge as long as they won't get detected or banned or it's within a grey area.
"All of this shit was mad avoidable, even in the pandemic era."
He talks about why aren't we filming them. Why aren't there representatives for leagues and tournaments making sure players aren't cheating?
Match Fixing
"How many years have we let our scene be fucking pillaged by these greedy cunts?" "We just let it happen."
RL says that gambling and skins betting which existed in moderation was "accelerated and blown up by the Call of Duty greedy fucks."
"Never forget TmarTn was on the board of EnVyUs." "His website, CSGOLotto, they had a bunch of off-the-books sponsorships." "NBK promoted them. People forget."
"Those people who had access to the skins, go to the players" "Even people like s1mple, best player in the world, even he scammed knives and skins off fucking fans."
Owners of skin casino sites would approach pros and lend them skins to use in tournaments and possibly keep them after reaching a deal
Players would tip off inside info about matches and teams in exchange for skins. Info such as: roster changes, how they played in scrims
They would use this info to bet and subvert the odds on their sites. "That happened religiously, I can't even tell you how many times it happened."
"I had access to the biggest database of information, from an inside betting circle in NA, and it would take information and screenshots from other pro players, who were feeding them info in exchange for money or skins."
"Some of these players are still playing." "Incredibly, there are players still in the CSPPA today, complaining about the BLAST recordings, that were embroiled in this murky shit back then."
RL also says that there were tournaments where teams contrived with each other, who should throw, who should win.
"There's a handful of people that are trying to fucking clean it up, and you think you get something over the line and you see something like the CSPPA and it's run by corrupt fucking chuckle heads, and now you've got another corrupt body you have to fight on a fucking daily basis, it's demoralizing."
"It's too far gone. Our entire semi-professional scene is compromised."
"It's rife guys, I'm not going to lie any more. It's not just China, it's not just Russia, it's here, it's NA, it's Europe, it's Australia, so much more than you think, so much more than we can prove."
"I get sent chat logs all the time […] and they're morons, these players, short-sighted, amateur, morons and they're doing it on WhatsApp." People would get cut from the bets because they want to make more money, then they leak the logs. He says, from the chat logs, they spread "little" bets across every site they can (400 to 1k dollars) to prevent shifting odds
He says the scumbags who've fucked off to Valorant will do the same there if Riot doesn't do something and says Valorant "is an esports scene heading for a very early fall based on the sheer volume of scumbags that are already there."
"That's tier 2 CS in a nutshell these days. They know they're never going to play in a major, so what's the punishment?"
"All of these tier 2 fucks that are fixing games now they are like the fucking mafia compared to iBuyPower" "These guys are working with organized criminals to fix entire seasons worth of games. That's what's going on in your tier 2 CS."
"I'm literally being told that there are players fixing games at all levels of Chinese esports and motherfuckers with guns are turning up to team houses and stuff."
North America
"Everyone in NA has left we've lost a continents worth of support during this pandemic and Valve haven't said a fucking word."
RL says the Call of Duty "goblins" that destroyed CS for years are the same people who are now trying to leave CS. "The nerve to treat a game where the fans, and the community, and the TO's were nothing but good to you." "To just kick the players out now and go and leave and say 'It just doesn't make financial sense.' Oh you'll slither back when we have a major though for them stickers won't you."
There's a cascading effect in NA where people don't bother with CS anymore and people like Chaos suffer.
He says NA team owners are incompetent for always wanting it easy and always wanting a guarantee on their investment without skill or nuance.
RL says he would be able to market a team correctly and would have a good ROI and also points out how TSM wouldn't even be bothered to tweet that their team, which was one of the best in the world, was playing at the Major.
He also says not all NA owners are like that, compliments and respects Jason Lake who nearly lost everything to keep Complexity going.
He then calls out the incompetence in Infinite Esports when they acquired OpTic Gaming and bought an Indian CS team.
He says HECZ is not to blame here and that they couldn't tell forsaken was cheating when it was so obvious.
They measured his reaction time to the likes of dev1ce and s1mple
When an enemy showed up on his screen he won that duel something like 44% of the time
"was like the number 1 player in the world statistically"
He brought a laptop to their bootcamp and refused to use the high end PCs that hey provided
He respects Andy Miller (NRG CEO) and HECZ but says that the attitude of not being able to easily monetize their teams is "piss weak" and there needs to be a risk.
He says Chaos EC shouldn't be cutting their roster and should be competent enough to be able to figure out how to make money off their team.
He says there are still opportunities in NA and people are panicking and pulling out, and says Valorant will be the same if not worse.
He also says "bums" who couldn't even get out of groups in NA competitions, are making crazy money in Valorant and says it will continue to inflate.
He also said that he heard rumors that EG (Evil Geniuses) are done.
He also thinks that the rumors of a Valve franchised league from before was sparked up from "these lazy fabled weak NA fucking team owners basically trying to see if Valve would bite at the hook if it was dangled and they didn't"
Slasher says NA team owners are really in favor of franchised leagues because they want to make more money. "Most of the powerful team owners right now are on board with ditching this third party organization structure, or they are trying to play this power politics with all the TOs, and that is contributing to a lot of the problems there"
RL says that Riot has proved they can run a franchised league (LCS) and will be profitable in 2021 which is what a lot of team owners care about and says the competition will only serve to snatch people away from CS.
RL continues to say, "I am so sick and tired of what we have done to this scene, I am just exhausted with it." "I think we have legitimately fucked it, I really think we have. I think we're staring into almost like a CGS (Championship Gaming Series) wasteland in NA." "Counter-Strike esports is a fucking joke."
Talent
"TO's have treated CS talent like absolute human garbage for years now."
RL says that people like Sean Gares and ddk switching over to Valorant isn't for financial reasons because they are making less over there.
He points out that TO's can't even give talent a 3 month in advance calendar.
Because of the pandemic TO's won't hire certain people and some people are working more hours for the same money.
He says we as a community don't respect journalists enough which is why we don't have good journalists.
He also says DeKay is leaving the scene soon and that Thorin is close to leaving also
He says he had to talk a caster down from quitting and was struggling to find reasons.
He says that DreamHack told Vince they would hire him but not if he wants to stick with dusT and says that this is the norm in esports. "Constant leveraging of people against each other." and says this is why we don't have a talent union.
New gen casters are getting put into shit situations and the community's reaction to them is adding fuel to the fire
He says the reason Moses left was because of the terrible conditions
He says that Anders had to constantly leave his family and kid because someone fucked up or broke promises and had to constantly tell his kid to their face that "daddy can't be home this weekend."
He says that esports has always been a lie to sell you this dream, "Meanwhile there's about 2% of the cunts getting all the checks."
Valve
"Anything that Riot does, is better than Valve's inaction"
Slasher says that the larger aspect of esports as a whole compared to other entertainment mediums and Valve's lack of inattention are the bigger problems. He continues saying that the fact that Valve let their game be ran as an esport, they need to take on the responsibilities of it.
Both Slasher and RL wants Valve to take control but not on the level of Riot Games, there needs to be a balance.
In case it was ever a question: Gabe Newell has been to 0 CSGO Majors.
RL calls Valve out saying they could have done something during the gambling era.
He says Valve used to come to the majors, but doesn't think they do anymore.
RL had met with Valve at the Cluj-Napoca Major and had tried to appeal iBP's indefinite punishment and had also gave Brax's life story:
A recent family member passed away, they had lost a lot of income, they had to live in trailer, iBuyPower did not pay any salaries, and was pressured by family to make money who didn't support his career.
RL said that Valve told him, "How dare you try and make us feel guilty." "We shouldn't feel bad about enforcing the only thing that matters that we need to make players afraid of: cheating and match fixing"
RL also tried to share other info about match fixing and nothing came of it
RL points out that Source 2 or a new engine is not something you will want based on the experience of transitioning from CS 1.6 to CS:S. "Valve's track record with brand new engines being launched, not fucking great from what I remember."
Slasher says "If there is anything the community should do, is pressure Valve to hire a community manager."
They say that we need a commissioner, a community manager (not the person who runs the Twitter who posts memes all day), then we need to have a circuit
RL reiterates that Valve doesn't care about CS esports and says they need to change the culture at Valve to make them care about CS esports
Slasher says a systemic problem is making it so working on CSGO would be a bad decision for you as an employee for Valve
He also hasn't talked to Valve in ages and have sent over bugs and cheats and doesn't get emails back anymore
Slasher says we should be directing attention at the developer leads, pointing out Ido Magal, if he even is still the project lead
RL thinks that Ido and Brian are the only people that "vaguely even give a fuck about CS" and were the only people that RL recalled that actually read Reddit and paid attention from time to time
"It is really fucking precarious. Somebody has got to step the fuck up and start giving a shit"
Slasher suggests org owners, with CSPPA, with ESIC, with TOs have a concerted effort against Valve
"Riot Games are doing better things than Valve in the esports space" which is something RL didn't think he'd say.
"People who used to be talent, working with unions, arguing with other talent, when the unions fucked them over, can't understand their perspective, TOs fucking over broadcast talent, broadcast talent wanting to leave and go and work for orgs, orgs having no money, Valve might take coaches away because all the coaches are cheating, ESIC has about 4 people in a fucking call doing the investigations, everyone thinks they're spies for ESL, ESL are just the evil fucking overlords wanting to rule the scene and will just somehow, like cockroaches outliving a nuclear bomb, and Valve are in a fucking holiday in Hawaii thinking about the next Dota character because they don't give a fuck about us."
Closing Statements
"We've peaked. If we want to sustain and exist, now is the time to figure it out. No esports lasts as long as this, we've already done 8 years. We've already broke the records. We have got to figure out a way to coexist and drive the negative forces out and we need to do it as a collective and we're not doing that."
RL compared the Counter-Strike scene to the people on the Titanic who ran around with guns robbing people while the boat was sinking.
"We have given up on being a respectable esports scene." "We are now a conduit to make money for those who want to just milk it, just have one last ride, one last roll of the dice. It's done." "What a fucking mess. What have we done to our fucking scene?"
"There's just too much self-interest driving all of this." "I don't see a way we stop the dominoes." "When it's that bad, when there's that many dishonest people that ESIC have to come out and say that if we punish them all there's no one left. What does that tell you?"
"How many opportunities have we had to clean house? How many times have we said, 'this must never happen again', and another scandal." "The entire skins betting operations was the biggest criminal conspiracy in esports ever executed and no one has been punished for it." "The people who could be driving that don't want to."
"Right now people are fans of those organizations because the scene has value. It is worth being a fan of Astralis because they are excellent at Counter-Strike. It is worth being a fan of s1mple because he is the best player in Counter-Strike, maybe the exception of ZywOo. If the scene is devalued, if the scene loses its meaning, those things lose its meaning too, and people will leave, people will stop tuning into the games. I have seen it happen in multiple esports, this is not my first time at the rodeo. I am getting big Brood War vibes right now and I don't like it."
"The role you play in all of this as fans, as viewers, as listeners, as consumers of esports content, it's absolutely imperative that you know who the good guys are. It's absolutely imperative that you use your voice. It's absolutely imperative that when things are bad, you know who, at least, is trying to make them good, and you have to apply your criticism to the right targets."
He continues saying it's no good in continuing to attack ESIC and saying how they are bad, ESIC have it hard
He says CSPPA are on the right side of the argument on BLAST but have been on the wrong side of many arguments many times.
"If you are not willing to stand along side the weakest member of the union, with the least amount of influence, and the least amount of power, then it is not a union at all and you shouldn't pose as one." "You wanna serve a bunch of special interest do it, everyone else in esports fucking does, but do not pose as something you are not." "We love the players. I've been fighting for players rights for as long as I've been able to, but the CSPPA is not what we needed."
"They are not applying the pressure to the right people, they are not fighting the right battles, they are not helping their weaker members."
He says what orgs have done by keeping or hiring coaches is bad. "When you give up on holding an appreciable standard, you've lost the scene" "Competition matters, rules matter, punishments matter, achievements matter, excellence matters" "If you start stripping that away, you have nothing" "You guys need to take that knowledge and apply it sensibly."
"Valve has sold you all down the river, they sold everyone in the esports scene down the river, tournament organizers are selling their talent down the river. Don't hate on them for sounding tired after a 16 hour day. Don't hate on them because the hype for a matchup they've seen for the 20th time in the past 3 months, they can't be as excited or it sounds contrived. Support your guys, they're there for you, these are your people."
"This community has got to start acting like one for the first fucking time. Just put the petty shit away, let's try and fix this fucking scene while we still have one to save."
"You can't rely on Valve, you can't rely on ESL, you can't rely on the CSPPA, you can't rely on anyone." "Once again, it's gonna be the likes of us, the amateurs, the people who give a fuck, rolling up our sleeves and grafting." "I'm old and tired and I don't want to have to do it again. People need to pick up the torch and do it."
"Like Michal did, like Dudenhoeffer did. You see something wrong, fix it. You see somebody doing something wrong, call it out. If you think something could be better, let people know."
"Vote with your wallets if you're not happy with the direction Valve goes in. If when we do get to the Major, they serve up another subpar, same old bullshit stickers and signatures package again, do not buy it."
"You're a powerful block and if you use it correctly we can fucking avert this disaster."
"I'm not doing another year in this broken, bust-up fucking scene, where everyone is miserable, everyone is broke, everyone is tired, and everyone is trying to fucking rob everyone else, blind, while the fucking people who are meant to be protecting you, are just fucking enhancing it and lining their own pockets."
"I'm not doing it anymore and you shouldn't want to do it either."
"I stand by every fucking thing I said. I mean it, because this game fucking matters to me, this scene fucking matters to me. I put my life into this, my adult life, and to see it in this state is fucking sad."
GME: Bull case vs bear case, from both perspective
This is a post I wrote before earnings. 🌈 m's banned me for a DD that was short but actually made money for those who followed it. Have a read you all. Seeing that a significant interest has developed around the fabled GME short squeeze, I have written this post and I hope this writing provides an overview of the situation.
The case for a squeeze:
The entire argument for a short squeeze hinges on the possibility that either the management agrees with Ryan Cohen's plan and addresses it or he decides to pursue a hostile takeover. In this spirit, we urge you to quickly provide stockholders with a credible and publicly-available roadmap for cost containment, prioritizing profitable retail locations and geographic markets, and building the e-commerce ecosystem gamers deserve. (from the letter) This is Ryan Cohen's plan in its most raw form. Or to put it more simply, he wants GameStop to become the ultimate destination for gamers by leveraging its 55 million PowerUp members, its brand power; reducing lossmaking operations in Europe and Australia and to make investments in a Chewy like website for gaming. Has management been doing anything? Yes. A lot. It's hiring talents for building a successful online gaming store.Entered into a multi-year revenue-sharing agreement with Microsoft. It has also received a saving grace by the newest console cycle in which some people thought(like me) diskless gaming is going to be the leader. But the reality turned out to be quite the opposite. Add to that, the Nintendo Switch sold like wildfire in the US and is going strong, you have a winning combination for GameStop which would likely result in good quarters for the coming quarters. Management has also started a rebranding effort with some changes being made to its logo, items that are kept in-store and online etc. It seems like management is likely to address Cohen's concern and the lifeline it has received or will be receiving from the newest console could be its saving grace. If it can turn around or the management gives guidance that it CAN turn around its business model a short squeeze is imminent. Why would it be inevitable? Notice that short interest is almost 3 times higher than its float and more than outstanding shares, GME as a company is still relatively undervalued (assuming it doesn't go under). If the shorts realize that this company is not going to 0 as they have probably assumed, they will be forced to cover their shorts. The above-mentioned condition of short interest would guarantee that they have to cover. Also considering the average daily volume, this squeeze can last much longer(3-4 days may be) than the other historical squeezes like Volkswagen short squeeze when it became the most valuable company in the world for a short while. But given that the scenario surrounding GME is unprecedented, there is no telling how it could end up other than to say that it will be MASSIVE. Some shorts are already under water. Some of them are likely covering as noted by various Redditors and retail investors who are looking at the stock tick by tick. Also considering that short interest rose to a whopping 309.83% and is now down to 297.13% (as of this writing from Morningstar data), it's obvious that some of it were covered. The recent stock price appreciation could be a result of that plus the expectation of good quarterly earnings report. Retail mania: There is considerable retail interest in this stock. Considering that this stock is being heavily promoted in wallstreetbets and driven by that a lot of people are buying shares. According to a survey conducted there(not that reliable, but a good indicator of interest), that subreddit alone has enough ownership to get a board seat. Open Interest in call options is also huge considering that this is only a $1B market cap company. It's filled to the brim with OTM call options(from December 4 to April and further). And market makers and option sellers would have to hedge to serve this crowd, in turn increasing the stock price. This, in turn, could create a feedback loop where the shorts have to cover their positions, leading to a further increase in stock price, which would force market makers to purchase more shares which could increase stock price and on and on until it triggers a squeeze of epic proportion. Likely improving financial health:GME announced voluntary redemption of senior notes. Management has decided to redeem $125M of its senior notes. This is signalling that the company has managed to generate enough cash flow to cover its debt early. It could even help improve its credit rating which would help it attract institutional investors more and other perks that come with improved credit ratings. Declining debt is necessary as it would ultimately help deleverage the company and put it in a more sustainable footing which is ultimately what is needed for avoiding bankruptcy. Technical analysis: This is not my forte. I have bare-bones knowledge in TA and only use it for entry and exit purposes. But according to some retail investors in Reddit and tradingview GME has formed a cup and handle bullish pattern. Analyst Upgrades: Analysts are upgrading GME stock. Well, that's good, I guess.
The Case For Bankruptcy
The scenario in which a short squeeze doesn't occur is PROBABLY the scenario in which GME ultimately faces bankruptcy. As the thesis for short squeeze is laid out, the thesis for the short sellers is also crystal clear. After all, GME is STILL a large brick and mortar store that is trying to sell a product that could be very easily purchased using the power of the internet. The revenue of GameStop for the past few quarters is in steep decline. The company is overly leveraged and has many stores that are loss-making operations. Its online store has much lower visibility and investment and is lacking in many aspects(in my personal view). Its credit rating is not that good and Cohen himself somewhat criticised the management for trying to hang on to its old ways of doing things. Gaming and associated products are bound to thrive and grow at a CAGR of 9% and had grown even more in the past. Yet GameStop FAILS to capitalize on this trend and is continuously losing market share while destroying its financials. This is a clear sign that something is inherently broken within the company. While the management does seem to be trying to fix things, it could prove to be too little too late. To change its fortune it needs to turn around its business models like Best Buy or Walmart. Yet it seems pretty unfeasible judging by its financials. GameStop had adequate time to change with the times and become an early adopter but its backwards-looking culture and late entry made its journey full of competition. Short sellers believe that ultimately GameStop wouldn't be able to achieve a business turnaround and gain a critical mass of customers in its online space and management incompetency will ultimately lead to its bankruptcy. Thus its faith would be like the numerous mom and pop shops or the various retail giants that were. Even if GME share rises due to retail mania and market maker hedging; institutional investor ownership could decline, leaving retail investors as the ultimate bagholders. The shorts may bite their tongue and keep on paying interest as long as they believe no fundamental change in the business is going to happen. Which means they may not need to cover their position as long as the company becomes bankrupt, thus the fabled short squeeze may never materialize. After all, most shorts are probably institutional investors like Melvin Capital who can always maintain their margin requirements and like the retail investors they can also figure out what the retail investors are trying to do and thus avoid triggering any short squeeze. They may think, well, game sales are slowly becoming more and more digital, ultimately, platform holders wouldn’t give a shit if GME died and die they will. Because the most lucrative part of GME's business is buying and selling old games. So this will ultimately die. Plus, game related merchandize and other products(which are very lucrative and a huge market) would still remain under the clout of Amazon, Walmart etc, so GME will not be able to survive through that business model.
Conclusion
The next two or three quarters are pivotal for GME.
If "Management decides to address Cohen's concerns and manages to show their roadmap to success and improves its financials within the next two quarters = Short squeeze" Else If "Cohen declares hostile takeover or something close to that line= Short squeeze" Else If "Management addresses Cohen but fails to deliver within the next two quarters and has disappointing earnings=Unsure" #improbable cause next two quarters are expected to be good or at least the guidance which is more important Else If "Management doesn't fully address Cohen's concern, Cohen also doesn't make any move yet the business improves still= Likely short squeeze" Else If "Management fails to address Cohen's concern, Cohen disassociates himself, business fundamentals detoriorate= Retail bagholders" Else "I don't know really, imagine your own scenario, you are not bound to my conclusions. In fact my conclusions could be entirely off the mark. We are trying to predict the future here. Hope you come to your own conclusions. :)
Disclaimer
There are various nuances that I avoided writing(which are probably even more important to write) cause it might have taken too much of my time. Writing this post was a good exercise for me and I decided to ride on the GME train after doing so. Before you decide to do anything, you should do your research. This is not financial advice.
I had to stare at my dying mom through a window...
Due to Corona restrictions, the hospital would not let me into see her. She has 2 - 4 months to live. Until she moves to hospice, all I could do was stand on some gravel and cry softly later. This window was outside by the way (not like a hospital door window - not that that would be any better.) I am not alone: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/health/coronavirus-hospital-visit-ban.html The 1% are telling you to stay inside and stay safe, with their indoor pools, gyms, and endless amounts of money, while the essential workers deliver everything they need to them. Interestingly, small businesses or anyone with any type of success are not essential to the elite - only those who can work in slave-like conditions: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/12/grocery-workers-coronavirus/ The DMV is closed, so my husband could not get his new license (they canceled his appt?), but we easily were able to get some fast food at Burger King the other night. Is the DMV not essential? https://www.driversedhub.com/coronavirus-covid-19-dmv-closures/ I guess they are not really concerned about us traveling anyway as the lockdown restrictions increase. Take a look at Australia: https://fortune.com/2020/11/19/south-australia-adelaide-lockdown-exercise-dog-walking/ The lines at Wal-Mart are now hours long, but remember you can now start ordering everything online. Do not worry about those small businesses shutting down! Amazon has doubled its profits: https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/30/21348368/amazon-q2-2020-earnings-covid-19-coronavirus-jeff-bezos The teachers are advocating for closures of schools, all in the name of safety - not realizing their kids are mentally and socially suffering like never before, plus, eventually their jobs will be replaced by robots anyway... https://www.rollcall.com/2020/08/13/cdc-study-coronavirus-mental-health-anxiety-substance-abuse/ https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/01/08/teachers-the-robots-are-coming-but-thats.html Do not have any family gatherings. Do not even have proper funerals anymore. Do not travel or visit anyone. (Will I be able to have a proper funeral for my mom?) Stay inside and watch the Kardashians vacation on their private island: https://www.elle.com/culture/celebrities/a34494964/kim-kardashian-breaks-covid-guidelines-tahiti-birthday-vacation/ I can probably keep going, but I think you are getting the point (and add on to the list). People are accepting all this with no question. Whatever this virus is, it is most likely to kill old men: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2 We will be left with a world of people raised in isolation, without proper human interaction. Masks, for example, are making it difficult to decipher emotions, especially for children: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.566886/full People (younger generations) do not care because they want to be alone. They hate other people and the world. They hate babies, life, and creation itself. https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-rise-of-childless-america People do not really need people anymore...or family. They have endless distractions: porn, video games, social media, drugs, alcohol, etc. They never really have to give themselves a second to think, to question. They have been raised this way since birth now. This is the world people are wanting - in many ways, even, they are begging for it. The sick trick is that they do not have to even enforce much when people are begging for total restrictions, laws, and overall social control. I gave up on friendships (for the most part) many years ago. Why? People were unreliable, selfish, and seemed consumed with their lives. I do still have friends, but I let many people out of my life. I saw this strange dehumanizing many years ago and have been writing post after post after post warning people. Yet, I'm usually met with downvotes and shills. Many say this is a great world and things will be wonderful, especially on this forum. And that is true if you're ultimate goal is to be completely dehumanized. Because whether you see it or not - they are not just depopulating society, they are dehumanizing it: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/cyborgs-will-replace-humans-remake-world-james-lovelock-says-ncna1041616 Their great reset, dark winter, new normal, and ultimate agenda is to make society as dehumanized as possible, and it is working.
Advice on how to tell strict parents about relationship?
Hi, there. I (F19) have been dating this guy from Australia (M21) for four months, he and I have been friends for almost three years prior to that. I've never mentioned my online friends to my strict russian parents before (I live in germany, though!), besides my first relationship, which was also a LDR. I've only briefly mentioned that I play games online with someone from Australia a few months ago... anyway, I was 18 when I told them about the first one and they reacted extremely badly, cause my ex was a muslim, but he lived in our neighbour country, which wasn't such a drastic distance like to Australia. They were incredibly racist and claimed you can't love someone you've never met. etc. etc. Basically after that I kept the relationship secret, till it fell apart. Now, I really want to tell them about this amazing guy. Especially since valentines day is approaching and he is getting flowers for me and apparently more things, that will make it pretty obvious that I'm not single. It would be finally a good opportunity where I am forced to tell them about him, or else I'll always be too scared to confess. My parents are rather toxic and pretty much control my life so I am quite scared how it'll go and am looking for advice on how I could hold my ground against them? They need to understand that I should decide about my life, and especially who I choose to date. My boyfriend and I hope to meet around christmas, where he'd fly out to me to properly meet my family before I'd ever fly out to him, but it's not 100% confirmed, cause of the travel ban Australia faces at the moment. Thanks, covid. Them getting him to know over video chat is not an option since my parents only speak russian and german. He is currently practicing basic german, but it would nowhere be enough anytime soon. I have no idea how to make him seem trustworthy and like a great guy for me and let them approve of the relationship. He has all the qualities my parents want in a boyfriend for me, besides that he isn't russian or german and lives extremely far away, besides that he'd be perfect in their eyes. Do you have any ideas? Obviously I'll continue the relationship if they like it or not, but approval would make things a lot easier. I'm curious how you guys did it with relationships that had a language barriere and possibly strict and disapproving parents by default? Sorry for the long post. I'm thankful for any response, have a nice day. UPDATE: Well, my idea was to tell them by showing his gifts which were flowers, this teddy and some chocolate and then to explain who got it for me. I was EXTREMELY terrified.. but they took the news goddamn amazingly? He and I still can’t believe that really happened. Like, wow. They are insanely supportive and happy for me! This is truly the best day of the entire year. Now Australia just has to lift the travel ban so we can finally meet, oh well. This was a huge success though. Extremely happy now 😊
I had to stare at my dying mom through a hospital window...
Due to Corona restrictions, the hospital would not let me into see her. She has 2 - 4 months to live. Until she moves to hospice, all I could do was stand on some gravel and cry softly later. This window was outside by the way (not like a hospital door window - not that that would be any better.) I am not alone: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/health/coronavirus-hospital-visit-ban.html The 1% are telling you to stay inside and stay safe, with their indoor pools, gyms, and endless amounts of money, while the essential workers deliver everything they need to them. Interestingly, small businesses or anyone with any type of success are not essential to the elite - only those who can work in slave-like conditions: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/12/grocery-workers-coronavirus/ The DMV is closed, so my husband could not get his new license (they canceled his appt?), but we easily were able to get some fast food at Burger King the other night. Is the DMV not essential? https://www.driversedhub.com/coronavirus-covid-19-dmv-closures/ I guess they are not really concerned about us traveling anyway as the lockdown restrictions increase. Take a look at Australia: https://fortune.com/2020/11/19/south-australia-adelaide-lockdown-exercise-dog-walking/ The lines at Wal-Mart are now hours long, but remember you can now start ordering everything online. Do not worry about those small businesses shutting down! Amazon has doubled its profits: https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/30/21348368/amazon-q2-2020-earnings-covid-19-coronavirus-jeff-bezos The teachers are advocating for closures of schools, all in the name of safety - not realizing their kids are mentally and socially suffering like never before, plus, eventually their jobs will be replaced by robots anyway... https://www.rollcall.com/2020/08/13/cdc-study-coronavirus-mental-health-anxiety-substance-abuse/ https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/01/08/teachers-the-robots-are-coming-but-thats.html Do not have any family gatherings. Do not even have proper funerals anymore. Do not travel or visit anyone. (Will I be able to have a proper funeral for my mom?) Stay inside and watch the Kardashians vacation on their private island: https://www.elle.com/culture/celebrities/a34494964/kim-kardashian-breaks-covid-guidelines-tahiti-birthday-vacation/ I can probably keep going, but I think you are getting the point (and add on to the list). People are accepting all this with no question. Whatever this virus is, it is most likely to kill old men: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2 We will be left with a world of people raised in isolation, without proper human interaction. Masks, for example, are making it difficult to decipher emotions, especially for children: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.566886/full People (younger generations) do not care because they want to be alone. They hate other people and the world. They hate babies, life, and creation itself. https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-rise-of-childless-america People do not really need people anymore...or family. They have endless distractions: porn, video games, social media, drugs, alcohol, etc. They never really have to give themselves a second to think, to question. They have been raised this way since birth now. This is the world people are wanting - in many ways, even, they are begging for it. The sick trick is that they do not have to even enforce much when people are begging for total restrictions, laws, and overall social control. I gave up on friendships (for the most part) many years ago. Why? People were unreliable, selfish, and seemed consumed with their lives. I do still have friends, but I let many people out of my life. I saw this strange dehumanizing many years ago and have been writing post after post after post warning people. Yet, I'm usually met with downvotes and shills. Many say this is a great world and things will be wonderful, especially on this forum. And that is true if you're ultimate goal is to be completely dehumanized. Because whether you see it or not - they are not just depopulating society, they are dehumanizing it: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/cyborgs-will-replace-humans-remake-world-james-lovelock-says-ncna1041616 Their great reset, dark winter, new normal, and ultimate agenda is to make society as dehumanized as possible, and it is working.
[META] Welcome to r/r4r! Please read this before doing anything else!
Hello and welcome to /r4r! If you're confused about where you've landed, this is the gist of this place - "r4r" stands for "redditor for redditor" and is meant to be the de facto Reddit community for people meeting people for almost anything. That's fellow students, dating, playing music together, marriage prospects, penpals, playing board games, hookups, movie/tv-watching, sharing poetry, FWBs, celebrity gossip, video games, sports talk, meme-sharing, etc etc etc. There ARE rules, however, and everybody is expected to follow them. For those that can't see the sidebar, visit https://old.reddit.com/r4r in your web browser to take a look. The rules are copied below and expanded on somewhat since the sidebar space is limited.
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